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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The 52k from the Hannover store Manager sound credible. I never bought Dudenhöfers or other so called expert as they simply not have the know-how the average of this forums members have. They are in their personal ICE echo chamber. Also they actually do not know anything about the 3 really as most have never driven a Tesla in particular not a 3.

My calculations go beyond 50 k for Germany (first wave) and between 150k - 200 k for Europe (first wave). This is the first mover wave say people who are fanboys and buy a car without having driven it and have the financial flexibility. A second wave will follow shortly after people have seen the 3 from friends and family and driven it and after all the FUD about the 3 has been proven wrong and settled.

Sustainable demand for all 3 variants will be very high in Europe. Its the perfect market for this car.

As of now people need to explain why they bought a 3 very soon people need to explain why they didn't.

It seems we can track the number of orders in Europe, funny noone has posted this yet from other countries who have been able to configure for a while:

As of 7pm, approximately 500 people have ordered in Germany. I am in the low 10s. There is an invoice number that appears to be serial. Do people from other countries have that, too? Would be interesting to compare and for estimation of total orders! It is on the top right of the PDF that comes with the confirmation email.
 
About to pull half out on next upswing. I don’t see any catalyst that can drive the market higher. FAANG is crazy overvalued
What time frame ? Delivery numbers is a catalyst.

But from a purely macros perspective some resolution to budget / CR drama and any news on tariff can be catalysts. There could also be "clarification" statements from Fed members (like today's) that push the market up. But, probably nothing that can be a real rally until trade deal with China is finalized.
 
So that´s the on the first day of config for Belgium I guess ;)?! If you could give the approximate time we could make curves of orders vs. time for each country.
Invitation to order received on friday 14/12 10:50AM, ordered at 20:05. A friend who ordered a few hours before me has a much lower number.
 
What time frame ? Delivery numbers is a catalyst.

But from a purely macros perspective some resolution to budget / CR drama and any news on tariff can be catalysts. There could also be "clarification" statements from Fed members (like today's) that push the market up. But, probably nothing that can be a real rally until trade deal with China is finalized.

My educated guess for Tesla news (I have no real grasp of macro stuff):
- Delivery numbers will slightly disappoint in early 2019
- When the earnings report comes a few weeks later, however, Tesla will still be profitable (higher margins for each type of car, but lower ASP due to less AWD, more MR; also high production ability forecast-finally at 7000?). Also, awesome outlook for deliveries in Q1 in Europe and China (lots of high-spec car demand again).
 
So far, I bought the more on the bottom yesterday (albeit only 1 day of trading since). At least I'm not digging down further in the hole!
More shares on hand than I cared for, but still way up on the year and if earnings pop this beast, I'm golden.

Sure glad I'm not trading options. I don't know how you guys do it and enjoy life at the same time. Just buy some stock then go on vacation and check back in 6-12 months is my take.
 
I just placed my order

Feels great! :D

Not an owner, made a online reservation in August 2017

Red P3D AP

Good choice, congratulations. See you at the Supercharger.

From what I hear from friends, all excited to reserve; many (all but one) are going all in. This is not enough for a statistic (n too small) but the sentiment is there. If the Feb delivery date holds, Tesla will go off here in Germany in time for Q1 numbers (= high margin cars).

bright future secured.
 
...
NYSE: "no director qualifies as 'independent' unless the board of directors affirmatively determines that the director has 'no material relationship' with the listed company, either directly or as a partner, shareholder or officer of an organization that has a relationship with the company."[4]

Nasdaq's rules say that an independent director must not be an officer or employee of the company or its subsidiaries or any other individual having a relationship that, in the opinion of the company's board of directors, would interfere with the exercise of independent judgment in carrying out the responsibilities of a director.[4]
And remind me why the SEC would consider NYSE rules??
Seems most bureaucrats act more like lawless terrorist in our 21st century.
Anyone go to jail for the 2007/8 melt down? the 11 million housing losses?
So far many if not most of the "fines" have been voided on appeal.

Anyway, I'd still like someone to "leak" what part of the $40 million SEC fine against Tesla/Musk that they got and how they qualified for such funds as one of the "investors" that "lost money" from "Elon tweet manipulation of stock price".
 
I just placed my order

Feels great! :D

Not an owner, made a online reservation in August 2017

Red P3D AP
You probably think you're happy now; but once you get your new M3, you're going to be so happy that you'll get tired of being happy.

OK, not really :). After 7 months ownership, I'm still sickeningly happy; yesterday drove over 200 miles (on sunshine), just to get some fresh roasted coffee beans. Came home with that same stupid happy face I've worn for months! :p

Brace yourself for a new love in the joy of driving. And CONGRATULATIONS!
 
Yes so, relatively 3% up. In the last 20 minutes there has been a definite push to reach 320.

The stock market has just entered the Triple Witching Hour prior to a quarterly expiration of stock index futures and options and individual stock options. That combined with end-of-year portfolio rebalancing by institutions and tax loss selling by individuals prior to a low volume holiday week, could make this hour quite interesting.

Open interest in TSLA December 21st $320 puts is huge. Interest in the related calls is relatively modest. I suspect it likely that market makers and hedge funds would want to support a close of at least $320 to shut out put owners. In fact the situation is similar at the $330 strike price. If they have the muscle, the deep pocket writers of those puts may want to try to push the share price above that level too.
 
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So after about a day of configuration open, Belgium had about 100, Germany 500 orders.
Belgium has about 7.5x less citizens then Germany, so makes sense within error margin.

I suspect the orders are far below expectations hence to addition of more countries so quickly. I was thinking Europe could help maintain sales for a quarter of two but maybe not.
 
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