TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

The stock market has just entered the Triple Witching Hour prior to a quarterly expiration of stock index futures and options and individual stock options. That combined with end-of-year portfolio rebalancing by institutions and tax loss selling by individuals prior to a low volume holiday week, could make this hour quite interesting.

Open interest in TSLA December 21st $320 puts is huge. Interest in the related calls is relatively modest. I suspect it likely that market makers and hedge funds would want to support a close of at least $320 to shut out put owners. In fact the situation is similar at the $330 strike price. If they have the muscle, the deep pocket writers of those puts may want to try to push the share price above that level too.

So the market closed just under $320 then in after hours it went to $320 exactly.
Is the settlement price at the bell?

Based on my post count I may never post again!

 

[gringotuanis]

If anyone feels bad, just look at AAPL lol

Tesla was up like 1 percent when NASDAQ was down almost 3 percent...I think it held up well. Then again, I hold lotsa call options lol. Tesla is still the only green stock on my 40 stock list today.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I apologize. I should not have swapped out upside down cat for Starbucks sipping kitten. I got too cocky. Grinch cat stays for now because that’s what’s happening with SP and more importantly that’s how I feel. Trust me, though, Grinch cat will get the job done. He just doesn’t like to be told how or when. Patience.

I'm getting more of a Krampus vibe.


That's got to be bad for macros.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm getting more of a Krampus vibe.


That's got to be bad for macros.

Everyone knows Grinch Cat > Krampus. But Grinch Cat doesn’t give mouse nuts about macros, he’s solely focused on TSLA.

Tada!

 

[Carl Raymond]

ProBiz-Angel • 11 hours ago

"Good move. They are currently producing well over 7k M3's per week. They won't have any problem meeting their delivery goals as of today."​

Disqus - Tesla starts selling and delivering cars out of Gigafactory 1 – comes with a tour

Read back a few months worth of comments. Angel seems to dislike shorts with a passion. Could be wishful thinking.
One comment began "Your an idiot". Perhaps I'm a spelling bigot. When I read that I replace "Your" with "I'm".

 

[Cherry Wine]

Honestly, after the absolute pummeling of the previous four trading sessions, the fact that it held up today does not mean much. If market continues ugly I would look for more tanking, especially with all the longs sitting on their hands waiting for free stock.

I agree. Next week will be very interesting. I'm expecting the typical holiday week bear raid amplified by the ongoing market panic and other negative sentiment. Hopefully a strong Q4 delivery report stops the bleeding and starts a trend reversal, buoyed by money coming back into the market to buy up equities at a steep discount for what I expect to be a relatively small but sustained rally. I hope this carries TSLA up to the mid $300s from where it can hopefully break to a new ATH on Q4 ER positive sentiment.

Of course, reality will probably be nothing like what I'm thinking will happen.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So now I've got my sell in... wake me up when it sells in a couple weeks.
Cheers everyone!

 

[JRP3]

If anyone feels bad, just look at AAPL lol

You have no idea what suffering is like. I hold NVDA.

I hold both Luckily my NVDA purchase was rather recent so not hurting as badly as some. Nice to see TSLA holding strong in this mess.

 

[Words of HABIT]

...Tesla will have another great week.

I stand corrected. Can't believe TSLA is back down to 320. Ironically when it hit +370 a week back I was not thinking of selling in the least, I was thinking "I've got to buy more", however for me it is tough to justify as over 95% of my investments are already in TSLA (Not recommended by the way). With no debt and no leverage and boring stock only for the long term, I breath easy and sleep well. Glad I was not forced into selling at these ridiculous prices. Even with a significant drop this week in the TSLA, it still feels like a win.

Wishing everyone at TMC and their families a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year.

My iPhone stock tracker views shown below. Thankfully I'm only in TSLA and view the Indexes and other Stocks for comparison purposes only. TSLA quite buoyant in a sea of nastiness.

 

[Carl Raymond]

It actually works the opposite way, the speedometer in cars are required to report the speed you are going or higher. Most cars over report the speed by ~2 MPH



No, you can even see in Bjorns videos that Tesla over reports the speed as well. (He uses his GPS to go the same speed in his test drives of various cars, in most cars he has to go ~4 KPH over the speed he wants to actually drive.

Here are some details: Why Your Car's Speedometer Is Wrong

Perhaps it's the lack of audible or vibration feedback that you otherwise (annoyingly) get with an ICE. Surely a problem that a speed zone aware car can solve.

 

[Hogfighter]

So far, I bought the more on the bottom yesterday (albeit only 1 day of trading since). At least I'm not digging down further in the hole!
More shares on hand than I cared for, but still way up on the year and if earnings pop this beast, I'm golden.

Sure glad I'm not trading options. I don't know how you guys do it and enjoy life at the same time. Just buy some stock then go on vacation and check back in 6-12 months is my take.

I’ve had to eject from a fighter jet, flew 40 combat missions off of aircraft carriers, and got ran over by a car (twice) resulting in 20 broken bones, both lungs collapsed and a third of my skin gone.

This ain’t nothing

 

[gringotuanis]

It feels though as market is getting oversold and quite soon there'll be a rally of people buying stuff on the cheap. Wondering if this will be delayed till Jan or not.

My personal opinion, granted I hold mostly calls, is that some irrational fear has taken over the market. I'm young, (post 2008), but I've never seen so much fear sentiment based on almost no new bad news. The fundamentals seem quite good actually. We're still growing at a decent GDP and the forward PE ratio for the markwtas a whole is not bad at all. Nowhere near the .com bust etc.

 

[M3Rider]

I’ve had to eject from a fighter jet, flew 40 combat missions off of aircraft carriers, and got ran over by a car (twice) resulting in 20 broken bones, both lungs collapsed and a third of my skin gone.

This ain’t nothing

hope you're in a Tesla nowadays for better protection.

 

[Carl Raymond]

OT
Thoughts?? Give this market, how difficult will it be for TSLA to access financial markets? What are the chances that they need to?

Trust guidance. Not applicable. Zero.

 

[avoigt]

You have no idea what suffering is like. I hold NVDA.

NVDA is my smallest position now sold at the right time around peak most of it and bought TSLA instead and you know what?

I feel very good still having that small position because the value is still in that stock although the numbers don't show it .... for now. Wait and if you have the time the true value will be reflected again. The same is true for TSLA. It can take a while but one of my investment rules is never expose yourself to any time related forced sale or liquidity shortages and your are able to make free decisions.

If you are able to do your home work to find value and you have time you will be rewarded.

 

[Hogfighter]

hope you're in a Tesla nowadays for better protection.

I am, and my appetite for adventure is severely reduced! And I sure don’t bike ride anymore....

 

[Krugerrand]

I’ve had to eject from a fighter jet, flew 40 combat missions off of aircraft carriers, and got ran over by a car (twice) resulting in 20 broken bones, both lungs collapsed and a third of my skin gone.

This ain’t nothing

I’ve stubbed my toe. More than once. But not in the same week. And not the same toe. Guess that didn’t hurt as much, eh?

I have been married - to the same person - for 28 years. There’s been a few days where I thought Chinese water torture would be a welcome relief.

On a serious note - *#%^ #%^*+ you’ve had quite a life. Glad you’re still with us.

 

[printf42]

TSLA close green on the shortest day of 2018.
I’ll take that as a good sign, or as a lesson that Market Makers are the real forces I need to fear.

 

[dmunjal]

My personal opinion, granted I hold mostly calls, is that some irrational fear has taken over the market. I'm young, (post 2008), but I've never seen so much fear sentiment based on almost no new bad news. The fundamentals seem quite good actually. We're still growing at a decent GDP and the forward PE ratio for the markwtas a whole is not bad at all. Nowhere near the .com bust etc.

I agree completely. As for someone who lived through the last two bubbles and survived, this doesn't seem like the last two yet. Companies like Apple and Amazon are still immensely profitable and are still growing unlike Cisco, Microsoft, and Intel that actually suffered revenue declines in 2001.

This feels like a major correction and not a crash.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Personal perspective:

I remember the dot.com bust early 2000. You couldn't go anywhere or talk to anyone without bringing up the stock market and how insane it was. People were giddy. I remember strangers coming up to me stating they had a must buy tech stock and were promoting them. Everyone was going to be a millionaire. Irrational exuberance.

I remember the housing induced bubble and stock market crash to 2007. You couldn't go anywhere or talk to anyone without bringing up the housing market and how insane it was. People were giddy. I remember strangers putting hand written letters in my mailbox wanting to buy our house without using a Realtor, as a weekly occurrence. Everyone was going to be a millionaire. Irrational exuberance. (Lucky for me and for most Canadians, the Canadian housing market was much more stable that that of the US. Since buying in 2000, house is still up over 500% over original purchase price.)

Today is not 2000, and not 2007. There is no such irrational exuberance that I am aware of today.