TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

While the BMW 3-series numbers going down is certainly caused partly by expected Tesla Model 3 availability, the main reason probably is the new generation of the 3-series that came out in 2018. I expect the Tesla-effect to be more pronounced in the future.

Clarify please? Are you suggesting that the new generation 3-series hasn’t been well-received and thus caused a decline of sales?

 

[EVNow]

This is what Matt Taibbi had to say about Greenspan in the book Griftopia: “The Biggest Asshole in the Universe”

OT : "You can take the boy out of the cult (Ayn Rand) but you can't take the cult out of the boy."

Anti-Dismal: Samuelson on Friedman and Greenspan

Quote from the famous economist (and uncle of Greenspan, IIRC) Paul Samuelson.

Anyway, this is Greenspan finally figuring out at the age of 82 that the cult was probably wrong.

Greenspan admits ‘mistake’ that helped crisis

Badgered by lawmakers, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan denied the nation’s economic crisis was his fault on Thursday but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a “state of shocked disbelief.”

 

[EVNow]

TSLA looks bullish today - esp. compared to Nasdaq - running about 1% higher now. Up 1.25% compared to 0.25%.

 

[JRP3]

OT

So technically I think those kind of fire incidents (and bullet ones and driving over highway obstacles et al) should be removed from the fire list to give a more accurate comparison.

I'd say hitting obstacles on the road surface is not a Tesla only event, and though unusual the bullet could also happen to any vehicle.

 

[Words of HABIT]

LOL, the thought crossed my mind that if that wall got built, it would turn out to be a 100 year supply of 20' steel beams for the locals to carry off 1 at a time (all they need is a battery powered sawzall ), and use to build the bridges and overpasses they need for their own country's betterment. Thousands of miles of quality American steel, all lined up and free for the taking... What are we going to do; guard every last mile of wall? That wall isn't expected to cost billions for nothing; those steel wall columns would probably be quite valuable in the recycle/reuse metals industry.
</OT

Or a ten year supply of Boring bricks.

 

[Dreadnought]

Finally! Placed my order today. Two more months maybe, six months definitely
And once again, market sentiment matches mine. Uncanny ...

Edit: Only trend - wise. To truly reflect my mood, at least a 100% upside would be needed.

 

[EVNow]

Looks like there is an effort to pull the stock above 320, like predicted upthread based on open puts - but defeated again by macros. Nasdaq down 0.5%.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT

I'd say hitting obstacles on the road surface is not a Tesla only event, and though unusual the bullet could also happen to any vehicle.

Agreed. I’m simply asking for fair comparison. Bullets to battery packs of Teslas vs bullets to battery packs of GM Evs fire comparison. That’s fair.

Running over road debris comparisons - fair.

100mph hitting solid barriers comparisons - fair.

Etc...

 

[anthonyj]

Very funny, since you appear to admit to checking TSLA while sitting on the toilet.

On that topic, what do you look at while brushing your teeth?

TSLA

 

[Toolsmack]

What is max pain today?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Volume 1.9M shares of TSLA in the first hour of trading.

Plus we bounced off the Lower BB smartly @316.04 this morning all while outperforming Macros. Sweet!

Go TSLA!

 

[MartinAustin]

Now that my P85 just turned 5 (and still going strong), it's time for a new avatar!!!

I am sure hoping that today marks the end of this momentary TSLA crash, and we resume the pre-Q4 shipments rally, leading into the epic Model Y Anticipation Rally.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is max pain today?

340, but its the Open Interest in Put Options thats in play today:

Strike: Puts:
320 10.56K
330 8.16K

If market makers can force a close above those strike prices, they pocket the cash.

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

Is Santa going to give us a lump of non-renewable CO2 emitting coal this year?

 

[ZsoZso]

Somebody mentioned on these threads near the end of last year, that some fund managers tend to make "window dressing" trades in the last few days of the year, i.e. selling shares that had bad performance during the year and buying ones with good performance in the past year (which of course may not be indicative of future performance).

How will such window dressing effect TSLA next week ?
AFAIK, TSLA did not perform well in 2018 compared to its own previous years, but compared to overall market within 2018 it may not be too bad, but I'm sure there are better choices (e.g. TTD). So overall I have no clue what effect this would have on TSLA.

 

[AWDtsla]

OT

You can disbelieve if you want to ignore reality and be as dumb as the short-sellers, but you're wrong. What I wrote is fact, I tracked it.


Too short. I'm talking serious drives where range matters, driving all day. (For 25F-30F in normal snow, it applies to drives of over 60 miles, which I do routinely in sub-freezing weather, but in fact my data set for the super-bad weather is drives *which required recharging on route* only, so well over 150 miles.)

Nope. The last drive data was so bad, that a round trip pretty much used up the whole pack. There is no "longer drive" for that trip. Can you argue that you can give it better conditions? Sure. But I'm not trying to feed the car drives it's happy with, I'm trying to go where I'm going.

Too slow. Highway speeds, 55 mph. Remember, serious distance driving.

Your mileage numbers won't really normalize until you've been driving for an hour. But my numbers are, in actual fact, correct for distance driving (where range matters).

Can't go faster due to road conditions. That drive was closing in on 2 hours already.

If you're getting worse than 30% range loss in distance driving (>150 miles), your car is simply defective; get it fixed.

Nope. Let's see, I can beat rated miles at 75mph on a nice warm day, and have a nice linear drop-off down to 0F, yet there's something wrong with the car? No this is what happens when you have dual motor, P, and you measure energy usage via loss of rated miles vs trusting the trip meter (adds another 8-15% "phantom" usage). Every loaner experience I've had confirms this, and I've had a half dozen. Nothing wrong with my car.

Every drive over 25 miles for the last 2 years:

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I knew Teslas had a higher proportion of reckless drivers than other car brands, but now I have evidence!

It is bit off topic, but I feel the need to correct you here. It is less than one speeding ticket per Tesla owner in The Netherlands per year. And many of those speeding tickets - including the single one for me this year - are for small violations, just a few kilometers over the speed limit. The problem is that ICEs do not show the real speed. If you are going 45 the speedometer will show 50. So many people are used to driving 55, as they will still not be speeding. But in a Tesla 55 is 55. Result: a ticket.

EDIT: corrected after input by MP3Mike. I had switched 45 and 50.

 

[ggr]

What is max pain today?

340 just now. And triple witching, and relatively low volume. I think it is highly likely the price gets pulled up by the market makers.

 

[M3Rider]

My calculations go beyond 50 k for Germany (first wave) and between 150k - 200 k for Europe (first wave). This is the first mover wave say people who are fanboys and buy a car without having driven it and have the financial flexibility.

I don't know how people calculate, all I know is that out of 455k reservations <20% we cancelled.
That's 364k total for US/Canada/Europe/China.
With roughly 50/50 split between NA and the rest, that would mean 182k reservations between Europe/China. So, 200k of fanboys for Europe might be a stretch. I might be wrong, I just did not see alternative numbers yet and don't want others to get carried away on wrong assumptions.

 

[MP3Mike]

The problem is that ICEs do not show the real speed. If you are going 50 the speedometer will show 45.

It actually works the opposite way, the speedometer in cars are required to report the speed you are going or higher. Most cars over report the speed by ~2 MPH

But in a Tesla 55 is 55.

No, you can even see in Bjorns videos that Tesla over reports the speed as well. (He uses his GPS to go the same speed in his test drives of various cars, in most cars he has to go ~4 KPH over the speed he wants to actually drive.

Here are some details: Why Your Car's Speedometer Is Wrong

The European Union requires adherence to UN ECE Regulation 39. It’s a lot of math, but the simple version is that no speedometer can read slower than the actual speed. Ever. On the high side, it’s allowed to read up to 10% above the actual speed plus four or six kilometers per hour, depending on the type of vehicle.