TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

The shorts need a story to drive price down - the going forward demand theme seems like one of the only stories they have left with how well Tesla did in Q3 and will likely do in Q4. Based on what I am seeing and hearing where I live and with my friends in other parts of the country, seems like a false narrative to me.

Yeah I get it..I'm just a little grumpy today and sitting in front of computer watching the SP fall is not helping.
I think I will go outside for a walk....well no it is cold and raining so that's out.

 

[viridi]

The shorts need a story to drive price down - the going forward demand theme seems like one of the only stories they have left with how well Tesla did in Q3 and will likely do in Q4. Based on what I am seeing and hearing where I live and with my friends in other parts of the country, seems like a false narrative to me.

I am also not sure how having about three days’ worth of production in inventory is bad. All indications are this will be an amazing quarter. Hopefully, once #s come out and once we get earnings, the FUD will be overpowered by the facts.

 

[abasile]

OT

I agree that Autosteer, on the current hardware, is far from the level of functionality that's needed for Level 4 autonomy. Autosteer generally works quite well on freeways, but it fails miserably on curvy roads such as CA-330 and CA-18, our local state highways in the mountains. If I were to turn on Autosteer up here, set the max speed to the speed limit, and fall asleep, there'd be a high probability of ending up in a head-on collision. It doesn't reliably stay in the lane.

That being said, I can think of at least a few reasons for optimism on this point:

1. Hardware 3 is likely to lead to a significant improvement in perception of the car's overall environment.

2. Tesla's Autopilot team may not have put significant resources into testing on particularly curvy roads; freeways have been their top priority.

3. Failure to track curvy roads might be more of a control problem than a perception/vision problem. If it's primarily a control problem, I'd expect it to be solvable even with the current hardware.

As to your comments on optimal vehicle speed, that seems like a control issue that's quite solvable, though ultimately the user/driver has to be responsible for setting the maximum speed to anything above the legal limit.

And if auto steer is this far from being out of beta it is hard to conceive that FSD is anywhere on the horizon. I look forward to incremental improvements, but also hope that they address the fundamental approach of how EAP is intended to work (e.g., maximum speed vs ideal speed).

 

[Unpilot]

I am also not sure how having about three days’ worth of production in inventory is bad. All indication are this will be an amazing quarter. Hopefully, once #s come out and once we get earnings, the FUD will be overpowered by the facts.

Never sell the FUD factory "short" (see what I did there) All it takes is one AP crash a few more cars sitting at some lot maybe Elon tweeting something. Fact's be damned they get paid to write crap. And crap they will write.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla (TSLA) Price Target Raised to $550 by Global Equities' Chowdhry

Market action....why are we currently going off a cliff?

Analyst upgrades are a sell signal. Expecting a bounce at $318. Just a guess

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I am also not sure how having about three days’ worth of production in inventory is bad. All indications are this will be an amazing quarter.

Especially compared to traditional car makers with showrooms all over the country filled with unsellable ICE junk

 

[S3XY]

Never sell the FUD factory "short" (see what I did there) All it takes is one AP crash a few more cars sitting at some lot maybe Elon tweeting something. Fact's be damned they get paid to write crap. And crap they will write.

Don't forget a nice flashy fire. That's always worth a lot of clicks and a push downward.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Downward price action on a short trading day preceding a holiday - you could set your watch by this movement.

 

[SO16]

Fading macros and this: https://electrek.co/2018/12/31/tesla-model-3-inventory-us/

Amazing how people freak over 3 days of inventory. Why do so many people overreact and lose money? Oh well. I will just buy more TSLA and profit off from them I guess.

 

[EVNow]

Downward price action on a short trading day preceding a holiday - you could set your watch by this movement.

Today is not a short trading day.

U.S. Options Holidays and Trading Hours - Nasdaq

 

[AWDtsla]

Fading macros and this: Tesla has over 3,000 Model 3 vehicles left in inventory in the US

Wow, they have 3-4 days of production as inventory! WOW. Another Fred special.

 

[Todd Burch]

Wow, they have 3-4 days of production as inventory! WOW. Another Fred special.

Yeah Fred's at it again. He presents it as a "I'm just telling you info" story, but really where is the story? Why is it newsworthy? Yawn.

 

[anthonyj]

Downward price action on a short trading day preceding a holiday - you could set your watch by this movement.

Sold 100 shares at the $330 break. Will get back in EOD. Currently holding 420 shares for the lols

 

[mongo]

So, 5k less than last quarter.

So, even if we conservatively estimate production at 55k, the deliveries would have touched 60k.

My guess is production was between 55k to 60k. So, deliveries will be between 60k and 65k.

ps : In the industry it is common to have 30 to 60 days of inventory. Tesla has just 3 days worth of inventory !

Also, remember the 1,700 or so that didn't get logged for Q3 (delta from Q3 deliveries letter to Q3 quarterly letter for Model 3, might have been financing issue).

 

[Open Interest]

Amazing how people freak over 3 days of inventory. Why do so many people overreact and lose money? Oh well. I will just buy more TSLA and profit off from them I guess.

Because Fred equates three days of inventory with peak U.S. demand.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Here it is Christmas day and they are still promising deliveries before Jan1. I am assuming everyone knows that Elon Musk is guaranteeing the full $7,500 tax credit. I am guessing they are figuring that a discount of half of the $7,500 tax credit ($3,750) is worth it to guarantee lots of work for the January slow down. Not sure what this means though. Usually when you lower prices you are having a demand problem.[/QUOTE

I think one way to trade (deep out of the money) options is to write off the money mentally the moment the contracts are bought. It's a probabilistic instrument with a -100% return (full loss) much more probable.

It also helps to use deep out of the money options: there you start with an instant -20-30% loss due to poor spreads and low liquidity, and the expected trajectory is an even deeper drawdown as you average into a position, as you rarely catch the true bottom of the market.

This can only be stomached if you literally don't care about the loss. Consider it a rented or leased "chance", with fixed monthly payments.

The only other method I'm aware of to cope with very high leveraged volatility emotionally is frontal lobe lobotomy. [/QUOT

... when did Tesla report 1k cars in one day? Also, Bloomberg tracker != production.



It's not guidance if the quarter is over. It's like saying we think we were profitable, but we need another couple months to actually calculate the numbers and have them audited. Obviously, the consequences of being wrong on their estimate are huge.



I highly doubt it. Remember, this is an annual filing that needs to have audited financials. It takes longer than a Q so I wouldn't expect anything until *at least* mid/late Feb.

I am sorry I don't remember when or were I read that I only know that I did. In the last conference call when they were easily doing 700 on a normal day, the Indian guy, I think his name is Depak was saying that it shouldn't cost much more to get to 1,000 cars on an decent normal day.

 

[gora321]

Longville times:
Big inventory of Tesla shares here!

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

They are not promising that at all: they are only saying that if and only if Tesla says they can deliver an inventory car before Jan 1 they guarantee it.

Late in the quarter quite a few inventory sales happen across stores, for example in an LA Tesla Showroom a prospective buyer might be told: "There's an inventory M3P where the owner was a no-show in Fremont, can you take delivery in 2 days?". If yes then Tesla ships the car over to LA.

I.e. Tesla is telling customers that if there's still a car somewhere in inventory that Tesla promises to deliver before January 1 when the order is placed, Tesla will pay if they cannot meet that promise.

The effect: customers who order in Tesla Stores can safely assume they can get the full credit as long as Tesla promises Q4 delivery - even if delivery happens to slip due to a logistics hickup.



Alas Tesla has not lowered prices, so the opposite is probably the case.

Tesla wants to "flush inventory" at the end of Q4, but end of Q4 is special wrt. the tax credit - so Tesla is reassuring all inventory car buyers that their tax credit is safe if they buy an inventory car.

It's New Years Eve and you can still place your order today and get the full credit. So if I placed an order today I would get the car that is closest to what they have in inventory or nor deal correct?

 

[EVNow]

Amazing how people freak over 3 days of inventory. Why do so many people overreact and lose money? Oh well. I will just buy more TSLA and profit off from them I guess.

I wonder how the market will react to different levels of P&D. It is going to be difficult to predict - over a big range.

<56k : SP Down Big
56k to 60k : Unpredictable
>60k : SP Up

The other thing we are not considering much is S&X. If there is a miss on that, SP can go down even if 3 is ok.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Today is not a short trading day.

U.S. Options Holidays and Trading Hours - Nasdaq

I stand corrected!