Keller's expertise is in hardware chip design. He is not an expert in AI/autonomy. They are two very different things.
Disclaimer: I'm a software engineer
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Keller's expertise is in hardware chip design. He is not an expert in AI/autonomy. They are two very different things.
Disclaimer: I'm a software engineer
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Moreover, Elon has final say on that choice, and he very strongly believes the solution is possible with vision only systems.
Given that we can all drive with vision-only systems, I think he's right.
Given that we can all drive with vision-only systems, I think he's right.
bdy0627
Active Member
Keller designs and builds chips. He was brought in for this specific expertise. His departure will have little to no influence on Tesla's use of lidar. No correlation between these two items.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
This is NOT my experience.
But, I have 30+ cheerleaders on ignore, and maybe one or two bears (those that were just plain ridiculous)...
I do occasionally click on "Show Ignored content", when an answer to something I don't see seems interesting.
I have only one person on ignore because they insisted on personal insults. The reality is that many of the excessive cheerleaders also bring things to the discussion that are interesting. But when they get onesided and I feel in a particular mood, I do push back.
I value your contributions. I do have fears about Tesla, but I hate to bring things up to give bears more ideas.
I would love to have private discussions about the biggest real dangers to Tesla.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I like reading well constructed cautious opinions and would be happy if you were to contribute in that direction - check @YasB that joined us recently. @CuriousSunbird had couple of tidbits too, but otherwise we haven't had much luck with useful bear/negative information on this board. And while I was searching wide and far on SA and elsewhere, I found that most anti-Tesla writers have an obvious agenda. Come to think of it, other than Randy Carlson and Mark Hiberman, I'm not sure I read anything truly good on SA, whether positive or negative.As I said, I like Tesla cars and am planning to buy a MS in midterm future (S Mark II, maybe). But I am also an experienced investor and watch the performance of the Tesla shares and then find here the extremely optimistic, even aggressive views in the investor threads of TMC. I am certainly not in love with Tesla but this is never good when investing.
I promise to never again to bother you and won’t ever post anything again in the investor threads here. But I will keep reading for few informative postings and else for my amusement.
Have a good time !
bdy0627
Active Member
That seems really irrational to me. Toys r us went bankrupt with 31,000 employees. I didn't hear anyone talk of them being too big to fail. Tesla had 37,500 employees at the end of 2017. Jonas is projecting that to be 50,000 by 2020. He uses the argument that auto-related jobs support up to 7 other jobs in the economy. GM in 2009 was considered too big to fail given the circumstances. It received about $50B in government assistance to make it through bankruptcy. GM is way way bigger than Tesla, with 180,000 employees. You also have to consider all of the GM dealers who would have been affected. I would not expect Tesla to be provided with $50B of government assistance, or whatever might be necessary, to help it through bankruptcy if that became necessary.
I think section IV of the article https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145646-tesla-breaks-faith-believers-time-go-short is a good check list of the bear theories. If you think you have refutations of each of the points, then maybe you are a rational bull.
I have to say that I agree - I think Jonas is stretching a bit But maybe an argument on his side is the geographical concentration in California. Maybe the bailout will come from Sacramento, rather than from Washington.
there are some bulls at times who do not seem to be basing their decisions on sound reasoning and facts. other bulls point that out here quite often when it happens. to be fair, when this happens, I have seen times that the less informed point gets more "upvotes" (likes, helpful, etc.) than the more informed point.
bears, almost without exception, offer intellectually disingenuous arguments. I never see bears point out other bears doing this (here or in the media for that matter). among the many dozens of bulls here, only a couple of times have I suspected there might be something intellectually disingenuous going on.
sweter
Member
Bought 93 shares today for $283.20 as my FOMO kicks in when seeing green. Or should I say "re-bought" as I had them set aside from a sell at 300.
Mod: note to all new members, we frown upon just posting links without at least describing what's there. In this case it's a thank-you to Tesla for him surviving a terrible crash. --ggr
I think most bears are saying that (i) Tesla is making a huge loss and has, in our view, little chance of making a sustainable material profit, and (ii) that Tesla is in need of a large amount of additional cash/capital and has no easy way of getting it.
How are those points disingenuous?
Or, of course, no bailout will be necessary. Which is what I think will be the case.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
People call Jonas a bull, but I think he's a blind man feeling the elephant. He goes way into the woods with autonomous driving and very unlikely scenario like Tesla bankwupcy, while being all over the map, and leaning bearish overall on M3 ramp, and completely ignorant about TE. I think he's stuck a little too deep in automotive field, and not seeing the bigger picture of renewable energy generation/storage/transportation.
sideshow stuff.
the discussion of bankruptcy in general is a sideshow, the fact that it is not effectively challenged, let alone readily and thoroughly debunked by the financial media is quite informative about the quality of media "coverage" of Tesla.
Tesla bankruptcy in the next year or so? My rough estimate, under 1 in 25 million.
1) Odds that Tesla needs funds before finishing ramp to 5K/week and generating funds to take care of debt? 15%
2) If 1), odds that Tesla could not raise such funds via a cap raise or debt offering if needed? 1%
3) If 2) odds that Elon Musk could not and would not use a small fraction of his over $10 billion in SpaceX holdings to pay finance Tesla's viability (something with far more extreme precedent)? under 0.05%
That is one in over a million right there.
4) if 3) odds that Tesla would not be bought out for at least $20 billion? 20%
So, less than one in 5 million that about $125 isn't something of a floor. I'd put the odds that all these events happen and no suitor comes other than a government bailout at less than one in 25 million. Odds of a Tesla bankruptcy in the next year or so under 1 in 25 million.
Again, the fact that "Tesla bankruptcy" chatter is not debunked by the financial media, and the confidence of those making such absurd claims is not called into question by the media are both quite informative about the quality of media "coverage" of Tesla.
Also, when Barclays, UBS, Moodys & Jeffries all say that Tesla will need at least $2 billion in extra cash over the next 12 months, what are you seeing that they are missing?
lose money on each additional S and X they make. intellectually disingenuous.
can't make money selling a $100,000 car, how will they make money selling the Model 3? intellectually disingenuous.
need for large amount of capital and no easy way of getting it? intellectually disingenuous (see post #8639 immediately above).
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