TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Any retail jobs lost in a community are made up by other retailers.

Local retail jobs lost to online retailers can't be saved.

Retail jobs are not growth engines.

Manufacturing and engineering jobs are because they bring in outside monies.

I don't expect a Federal bailout of Tesla if it came to that.

I do expect California and Nevada putting a package together if it came to that where 90% of the funds are from the California State government.

The vast majority of Tesla non-retail jobs are in California and Nevada.

At the time of the bailout the vast majority of GM Jobs were not in the US. GM had and continues to have vast engineering, manufacturing, and executive labor outside the US. It is really a Sino-American company now.

I think maybe Tesla is to big to fail for another reason. There are enough deep pocket investors who would wont want to see this kind of company fall to FUD spewing hate mongers. Its to big to fail because its to close to changing the world and there are to many who will support that until it happens. They wont step in right away, but they wont let it fail. They have kids and they breath air just like the rest of us, but they have billions of dollars and support what Elon is doing.

 

[MartinAustin]

Strong close.

...and carrying on upwards in AH.

It's got that "there is news" look to it IMO

 

[EinSV]

...and carrying on upwards in AH.

Maybe due to Amazon -- up 6% AH with a strong ER.

I guess somehow AMZN's nutty strategy of putting off short-term profits to gain a long-term competitive advantage is paying off.

The outlook reinvigorated enthusiasm for Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos’s strategy of leaving rivals in the dust by constantly investing in growing businesses such as data centers, voice-activated devices, and faster delivery of more goods. Amazon Forecast Shows E-Commerce Giant Growing Profitably​

 

[BornToFly]

More money in my account. Hoping for a morning dip tomorrow to trigger my 280 buy order. Yum, yum, yum.

 

[Paracelsus]

I think maybe Tesla is to big to fail for another reason. There are enough deep pocket investors who would wont want to see this kind of company fall to FUD spewing hate mongers. Its to big to fail because its to close to changing the world and there are to many who will support that until it happens. They wont step in right away, but they wont let it fail. They have kids and they breath air just like the rest of us, but they have billions of dollars and support what Elon is doing.

This is exactly why I am very comfortable with almost 100% of my investments in TSLA..........because if the Tesla mission statement is not allowed to succeed, we probably won't succeed as a species much longer. There is a core group of people who sincerely believe that, and thus won't let go of their holdings until the vision manifests. I am very grateful to be a part of that group. And now the sky has opened and the seas have parted for the FUD to fall & flow because we have reached a point in time where that vision is not only the most environmentally sustainable, but it is also rapidly becoming the most economically sustainable and affordable solution as well. I agree that the environmentally-driven investors who supplied sufficient fund for the vision to gain marketplace will continue to hold (I sure will). And I believe the FUD of Biblical Proportions-phase is in high-gear now because of the competition's fear that the time is now ripe for investors with a keen sense for the market, the auto industry, or the energy industry to become the next wave of TSLA Longs - even if they don't give a $^&* about the environment. And that will greatly shorten the path to the S&P 500 where TSLA will become embraced by a third round of anxious buyers - the funds that can't hold it currently.

As Slim Pickens would say - "those bears are going to look like a chicken that got caught in a tractor's nuts"

 

[Intl Professor]

I don't think 'too big to fail' covers it, exactly. I agree that Uncle Sam would be unlikely to come directly to the rescue were Tesla to actually approach bankwuptcy. But Tesla also is not GM or TRU in another, more important IMO metric: customer interest. Neither GM nor TRU had by-a-wide-margin record-setting $1k down deposits for a sight-unseen vehicle. Neither GM nor TRU are upending a massive established industry. Neither GM nor TRU are considered in nearly the same light in terms of consumer fervor as Tesla.

So my view is that if Tesla were to come close to failing, someone like Google or Apple, or Tencent, etc, would scoop them up and largely continue with the plan. We know this was essentially lined up in 2013 with Google but never actually executed as Tesla recovered.

I have problems with framing the issue as though Tesla's problems are the problems ICE faced in the great recession. They were too big to fail because of the infrastructure and thus jobs that would be affected in a severe downturn.

The proper "frame" for Tesla is too good to fail. Period.

Edit: As some here have implied or said explicitly, the best thing for the auto industry is to learn from Tesla, which is already happening but slowed because of their size, aside from limbic brain thinking.

 

[dc_h]

Could be getting some juice from CNBC now announcing twice that Chanos will be on tomorrow a.m. talking about Tesla (among other things).

Guys, do you know of any rigorous short-seller/bear analyst worth reading/listening to? I'm asking seriously, as it can help to do a proper assessment of the stock. I'm bullish, but rational.

there are some skeptics in the long term thread. Polite or wise enough not to debate everyone here and get reverse trolled. It works better there and you get good dialogue without everyone having to debate to death.

 

[Krugerrand]

Most of the people who are true believers. I think the best use of this site is to try to find a bull argument that makes sense. I haven't so far, but I'm still listening.

You provide so many moments, I never have to worry about not getting my eyeball exercises done each and every day.

 

[Krugerrand]

Do people think the change in AP leadership will lead to a change in the company's views on Lidar?

Absolutely. When pigs fly.

 

[Causalien]

I was scratching my head earlier about the new short that sounds like organic real shorts.
Then I came by this app called Robinhood. Basically allowing anyone with a pulse to play with derivatives, shorting and options... I get the picture of college kids yoloing with their tuition money in my head.

All conjecture, but could explain the higher interest.

 

[Reciprocity]

I was scratching my head earlier about the new short that sounds like organic real shorts.
Then I came by this app called Robinhood. Basically allowing anyone with a pulse to play with derivatives, shorting and options... I get the picture of college kids yoloing with their tuition money in my head.

All conjecture, but could explain the higher interest.

Could be a lot of yoloing both ways. It would be funny if this thing squeezed because of a bunch of college kids with Robinhood app dumping their Bitcoin winnings into Tesla.

 

[EinSV]

I was scratching my head earlier about the new short that sounds like organic real shorts.
Then I came by this app called Robinhood. Basically allowing anyone with a pulse to play with derivatives, shorting and options... I get the picture of college kids yoloing with their tuition money in my head.

All conjecture, but could explain the higher interest.

Net short interest increased 10 million shares over the past 4 weeks -- 4X more than any 4 week period last year. I'm pretty sure college kids have better things to do on spring break.

Plus my guess is that the short demographic tilts older and stodgier.

 

[madodel]

10 million net shares were shorted over the past four weeks -- four times more than any 4 week period last year. I'm pretty sure college kids have better things to do on spring break.

Plus my guess is that the short demographic tilts older and stodgier.

And far less tuned in to technology. I don't think too many millenials would short TSLA. Everyone I speak to would love to own TSLA and better yet a Tesla.

 

[TradingInvest]

Marginal cost includes both material cost and labor cost. Once the production stabilize, I imagine Model 3's marginal cost should be significantly lower than Model S, because of the following reasons:

1. Model 3 line uses less labor per car.
2. Model 3 is smaller.
3. Model 3 is designed to be simple (no buttons, one screen).
4. Less battery.

If Model S's marginal cost is $30k, I think Model 3's marginal cost should be $25k or less. So once model 3 production passes the break-even point, additional Model 3s should generate quite a bit gross margin (considering most people will order autopilot, next year's ASP should be around $45k). At some point of 2019 or 2020 Model 3 production probably will reach 10k per week and Model Y also starts production. The gross margin on Model 3 and Y should reach $16B a year in a few years.

I agree with Gene Munster, Tesla will be the biggest gainer in the next 5 years among all the large tech companies. The big short position is just icing on the cake.

 

[dc_h]

Lighten up everyone. People snapping at anything they disagree with as fud. Long time site patrons and new comers getting bashed for minor disagreements or just the free flow of ideas. If you want to proselytize for Tesla, smash mouth debate and idiomatic tyranny is not the path to victory. Don’t assume anyone with a skeptical inquiry is an evil doer. Skepticism is required for scientific inquiry, even if it ruffles your feathers.
I think we’ll see a big turnaround soon as production picks up, but we need continued follow through and long term Elon has got to find an operations genius he will trust and will get the job done.

 

[defc0n]

And far less tuned in to technology. I don't think too many millenials would short TSLA. Everyone I speak to would love to own TSLA and better yet a Tesla.

I was born in 83, I guess that makes me a millennial? Although I personally consider being called that an insult.

I’m still planning on owning a Tesla, in the form a model Y, in a few years hopefully. As far as whether I want to own TSLA or not, that depends upon the current week/month

 

[Bet TSLA]

I think section IV of the article https://seekingalpha.com/article/4145646-tesla-breaks-faith-believers-time-go-short is a good check list of the bear theories. If you think you have refutations of each of the points, then maybe you are a rational bull.

I got about half way through this drivel before I gave up. What I read is entirely based on misinterpreting Elon's best guesses on engineering timelines as "promises", and imputing false motives based on an overactive imagination. As a confirmed bull who has made a ton of money from TSLA, I can say that nothing there is relevant to my investment. I look at where Tesla is on car building progress (about 6 months behind where I'd hoped), where they are on autopilot (about a year behind where I'd hoped), and where they are on energy deployment (about a year behind where I hoped), and where they are on profitability (about a year behind where I hoped) and I'm reasonably confident that they'll continue to move fast and do well.

And the list in Part IV is nothing but fantasy. Every item is wrong, and has been debunked here over and over.

This constant drumbeat of accusations of fraud, bad faith, and hucksterism are supported by nothing at all.

 

[Paracelsus]

Speaking of the shift to more economically sustainable and affordable solutions that just happen to be more environmentally sustainable as well:

MGM Resorts to co-develop solar array that will power its 13 properties on the Las Vegas Strip
"MGM Resorts International has partnered with Chicago-based Invenergy to develop a 100 megawatt (MW) solar array 25 miles north of Las Vegas.

The facility, dubbed the MGM-Invenergy Solar Project, will be operational by the end of 2020, Invenergy said in a statement Thursday"

Las Vegas embraces solar power as MGM Resorts goes green

I would guess this represents another substantial buy-out from NV Energy long term contracts? We are starting to see that already in Pacific NW with large commercial users opting out of their PUD Hydro/NG existing contracts for less expensive California solar on the same grid. Fascinating times..........buckle your seat belt!

 

[sdtslafan]

Nice to see AMZN put John Thompson of ViLOSS capital in his place with their massive earnings beat today. Pathetic pencil pushers like him are no match for once in a a generation visionaries and he deserves the massive loss in his portfolio for doubting Bezos.

TSLA will be no different, only bigger loss.

Just mentioning this to expose that this guy doesn't know what he's doing.

Also nice to see TSLA rise on a Chanos hit-day...people are wisening up!

 

[EinSV]

Nice to see AMZN put John Thompson of ViLOSS capital in his place with their massive earnings beat today. Pathetic pencil pushers like him are no match for once in a a generation visionaries and he deserves the massive loss in his portfolio for doubting Bezos.

TSLA will be no different, only bigger loss.

Just mentioning this to expose that this guy doesn't know what he's doing.

Ditto David Einhorn and his “bubble basket” of AMZN, NFLX and TSLA shorts. Ouch.

David Einhorn's hedge fund is getting crushed because of ill-timed bets against Amazon, Tesla during market surge