TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[schonelucht]

I value your contributions. I do have fears about Tesla, but I hate to bring things up to give bears more ideas.

I would love to have private discussions about the biggest real dangers to Tesla.

With the volume and scale that is involved in trading TSLA, this forum might just as well be private. Ie, what we say here has little to no impact. At best we can hope to eventually learn what the real players already knew well before us.

That being said, even if this were an authoritative source, then I would still like to learn about possible risks in the open. The later significant information (both sides) comes to the market, the more violent the pricing action will be.

 

[Sancho]

Ditto David Einhorn and his “bubble basket” of AMZN, NFLX and TSLA shorts. Ouch.

David Einhorn's hedge fund is getting crushed because of ill-timed bets against Amazon, Tesla during market surge

Take a good long look at David Einhorn. He is the adversary of us longs. He’s not Big Oil. He’s not evil. In fact, he’s a big giver to many important causes.

But he has enormous funds under management, he’s short TSLA (and other stocks), and he plays to win. He will double down as long as needs to. We cannot compete with him.

The good news for us, though, is he’s not a Tesla hater. This is all about financials for him. If Tesla really starts generating cash and profits, he is likely to be among the first shorts to get out. He will take his losses and move on to other targets.

The shorts that are ideological will be the ones that get crushed. Not Einhorn.

Einhorn is our adversary now. Not the FUDsters, not the Tesla-haters. They are along for the ride, and will crash well after the Einhorns have ejected.

Cash flow and profits. That’s what wins this battle.

 

[bhtooefr]

Then I came by this app called Robinhood. Basically allowing anyone with a pulse to play with derivatives, shorting and options...

Robinhood doesn't allow shorting at all, and you currently have to apply to get access to options trading.

(I've been using it to buy and hold TSLA, and a few other clean tech stocks and ETFs.)

 

[CyberDutchie]

Fascinating new report out by Morgan Stanley about Tesla and SpaceX and what bridges the business models of the two largest entities in the Elon Musk family of companies.

“Shared and autonomous vehicles will produce extraordinary amounts of data. The need for a cybersecure network is clear. SpaceX enters the broadband market in 2019. Does Tesla present itself as a large captive customer for SpaceX? Does SpaceX help solidify an important technological moat for Tesla?”

The note points out the massive amounts of data that Tesla autonomous cars will not only produce but also consume. For example, a single car is estimated to transmit 1000x more data than an average smart phone. And with autonomous driving, the amount of data streaming into the vehicle will be astronomical.

The link is then made between an SpaceX launching an internet satelite communication business in 2019 and Tesla benefiting from that. However, as often the case, no matter how sky high Adam Jones thinks the opportunity for both companies to benefit is, price target remains the same. So don’t expect any stock movement based on this note.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Putting aside problems of where to stick the antenna, driving between skyscrapers, in parking garages, etc - likely cities have too many vehicles and Tesla aims to sell too many of them for such an approach using Starlink alone to work. *IF* they start adding Starlink base stations to cars, it will be to ensure coverage when outside of cellular coverage. They'll sell it first as a safety feature (always able to call for help, etc).

Autonomous cars should NOT be sending or receiving such vast (1000x average smart phone ??) quantities of data in real time. If they are, they're not really autonomous, just remotely piloted drones (whether the pilot is human or AI). They're not sending camera feeds in realtime to the cloud for processing - they're occasionally batch uploading interesting data, and the rest of the time will run entirely on internal programming on the data at hand and minimal outside data (such as traffic updates, maps for areas not already cached from prior drives, and such when available).

 

[mongo]

Putting aside problems of where to stick the antenna, driving between skyscrapers, in parking garages, etc - likely cities have too many vehicles and Tesla aims to sell too many of them for such an approach using Starlink alone to work. *IF* they start adding Starlink base stations to cars, it will be to ensure coverage when outside of cellular coverage. They'll sell it first as a safety feature (always able to call for help, etc).

Sattelite to terrestrial repeaters would solve the city problem (if it is a problem, with the number of seats and varied orbits, paired with short burst transmission, they might get good coverage for non-voice data (when not in a parking garage)).

And/ or, SpaceX cuts a deal to connect to the local cell towers data feed directly and provide a backup backbone.

 

[Drax7]

Fascinating new report out by Morgan Stanley about Tesla and SpaceX and what bridges the business models of the two largest entities in the Elon Musk family of companies.

“Shared and autonomous vehicles will produce extraordinary amounts of data. The need for a cybersecure network is clear. SpaceX enters the broadband market in 2019. Does Tesla present itself as a large captive customer for SpaceX? Does SpaceX help solidify an important technological moat for Tesla?”

The note points out the massive amounts of data that Tesla autonomous cars will not only produce but also consume. For example, a single car is estimated to transmit 1000x more data than an average smart phone. And with autonomous driving, the amount of data streaming into the vehicle will be astronomical.

The link is then made between an SpaceX launching an internet satelite communication business in 2019 and Tesla benefiting from that. However, as often the case, no matter how sky high Adam Jones thinks the opportunity for both companies to benefit is, price target remains the same. So don’t expect any stock movement based on this note.

Sizzle is great though it can kill you, now we need production, production production.

 

[kbM3]

I do agree that the personal Musk bailout is a risk to bears (particularly as many of us are bearish via puts, not via shorting). I don't think it will save the company, since I think the company is structurally money losing, not merely illiquid, but I think it would certainly wipe out a lot of bear positions in the short/medium term.

It has been pointed out to you by others why this is false and I've yet to see any response?

And far less tuned in to technology. I don't think too many millenials would short TSLA. Everyone I speak to would love to own TSLA and better yet a Tesla.

The response from millenials (and younger) I've told about my next purchase is "You're getting a Tesla?" with their eyes lit up. Some are young women who I doubt ever would have shown interest in a BMW or Mercedes.

With the volume and scale that is involved in trading TSLA, this forum might just as well be private. Ie, what we say here has little to no impact. At best we can hope to eventually learn what the real players already knew well before us.

That being said, even if this were an authoritative source, then I would still like to learn about possible risks in the open. The later significant information (both sides) comes to the market, the more violent the pricing action will be.

1) My biggest fear for Tesla is the number and scope of the opposition. The fossil fuel industry (just one of their powerful enemies) has shown their power by spending a few paltry millions and getting people to DENY SCIENCE. This is so absolutely amazing. The power of constant coordinated press attacks should not be underestimated. There are constant attacks day, after day, after day about Tesla quality. This could easily result in Tesla retaining this reputation for a long while even if they become the highest quality auto manufacturer. Unrelenting negativity like this is unfortunately very powerful.

I'm worried of another vector of attack that I hesitate to mention, because I have not seen it be used yet.

2) I was super excited about Alien Dreadnought, this alone caused me to immediately raise my stake in Tesla. Now hearing Elon's CBS interview about being too invested in robots, I'm worried what that means for their long term manufacturing moat. It sounds kind of bad on the surface, I'm just hoping we get clarification in a positive direction on the conference call.

3) Elon and Franz are great at designing desirable sleek sports/luxury sedans. That does not mean they can design a super desirable pickup truck. The most popular models are build for extremely poor aero and have this very tough macho design. Will traditional pickup buyers get excited about an aero looking truck? Will it be macho enough? Are a lot of truck buyers enamored with the rumble of the big engine like Harley buyers?

My hope with regard to the pickup is that the unbelievable torque and maybe the association with the Tesla Semi will help with the "macho" aspect.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It has been pointed out to you by others why this is false and I've yet to see any response?



The response from millenials (and younger) I've told about my next purchase is "You're getting a Tesla?" with their eyes lit up. Some are young women who I doubt ever would have shown interest in a BMW or Mercedes.



1) My biggest fear for Tesla is the number and scope of the opposition. The fossil fuel industry (just one of their powerful enemies) has shown their power by spending a few paltry millions and getting people to DENY SCIENCE. This is so absolutely amazing. The power of constant coordinated press attacks should not be underestimated. There are constant attacks day, after day, after day about Tesla quality. This could easily result in Tesla retaining this reputation for a long while even if they become the highest quality auto manufacturer. Unrelenting negativity like this is unfortunately very powerful.

I'm worried of another vector of attack that I hesitate to mention, because I have not seen it be used yet.

2) I was super excited about Alien Dreadnought, this alone caused me to immediately raise my stake in Tesla. Now hearing Elon's CBS interview about being too invested in robots, I'm worried what that means for their long term manufacturing moat. It sounds kind of bad on the surface, I'm just hoping we get clarification in a positive direction on the conference call.

3) Elon and Franz are great at designing desirable sleek sports/luxury sedans. That does not mean they can design a super desirable pickup truck. The most popular models are build for extremely poor aero and have this very tough macho design. Will traditional pickup buyers get excited about an aero looking truck? Will it be macho enough? Are a lot of truck buyers enamored with the rumble of the big engine like Harley buyers?

My hope with regard to the pickup is that the unbelievable torque and maybe the association with the Tesla Semi will help with the "macho" aspect.

Regarding the changes made to AD, I think it's a good thing for long term. This change feels similar to the supplier change for FWD on the MX, but done more proactively and transparently. On FWD, Elon admitted hubris, but much later after they went through the ramp. On AD, Elon is telling us now as they're making these changes. Mistakes will happen, what matters is how mistakes are handled, I don't see how Elon could have done better. I also fully expect them to remain forthcoming about the subject during Q1ER call and give more details, after the King interview and Elon's tweet, it would only make sense.

Regarding the design of pickup truck, I think it will look a little like the semi. It won't appeal to all existing truck buyers, but it could bring new non-truck buyers because of its new design, like what MS did to large luxury sedan segment.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

"#Tesla registered 253 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 33719."​

Why?

 

[Big Earl]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

"#Tesla registered 253 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 33719."​

Why?

Short bait?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

"#Tesla registered 253 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 33719."​

Why?

What about Canadian vins. Do they use same USA organization? Lots of invites in canada

 

[durkie]

It has been pointed out to you by others why this is false and I've yet to see any response?

2) I was super excited about Alien Dreadnought, this alone caused me to immediately raise my stake in Tesla. Now hearing Elon's CBS interview about being too invested in robots, I'm worried what that means for their long term manufacturing moat. It sounds kind of bad on the surface, I'm just hoping we get clarification in a positive direction on the conference call.

Part of me feels like Elon's statements about over-automation are lip service because of how things are looking with production issues right now. This guy is trying to build brain implants, send humans to Mars and electrify transportation, but then he makes statements about too many robots? It doesn't add up to me. I think he's trying to gracefully navigate through this moment of things not going quite to plan and show some humility, but I fully expect the "Alien Dreadnought" plan to still be in motion.

 

[Waiting4M3]

What about Canadian vins. Do they use same USA organization? Lots of invites in canada

This is Tesla registering VIN with NHTSA for recall tracking purposes, not related to Canada vs US deliveries. All cars that Tesla (or any automaker) build are registered with NHTSA, at the latest when they are sold to customers, if not ealrier. All the cars sold globally use the same VIN system.

 

[kbM3]

...but I fully expect the "Alien Dreadnought" plan to still be in motion.

I'm sure it is. Elon (and Tesla) make mistakes all the time, but the response is swift and they always come through. I'm over 100% invested in TSLA so I am a nervous Nellie at this point-

 

[MP3Mike]

This is Tesla registering VIN with NHTSA for recall tracking purposes, not related to Canada vs US deliveries. All cars that Tesla (or any automaker) build are registered with NHTSA, at the latest when they are sold to customers, if not ealrier. All the cars sold globally use the same VIN system.

Technically they aren't registered with NHTSA. NHTSA just passes your query to the Tesla servers to get the recall tracking information. So this means that Tesla added the VINs to their recall tracking system.

 

[Papafox]

You have to love the price action today. Shorts beat the price into the red with big selling sprees and as soon as volume slackens TSLA runs back up.

 

[DragonWatch]

@kbM3 "3) Elon and Franz are great at designing desirable sleek sports/luxury sedans. That does not mean they can design a super desirable pickup truck. The most popular models are build for extremely poor aero and have this very tough macho design. Will traditional pickup buyers get excited about an aero looking truck? Will it be macho enough? Are a lot of truck buyers enamored with the rumble of the big engine like Harley buyers?"

I would not be too worried about the sexual appeal of the Tesla Pickup ~ period. Though I am height challenged starting at 5'-5 1/2" before being wet and old age sank in with a loss of 3" (too damned much running, especially with backpacks). Other than the junior high bully telling me that he was afraid of me and therefore did not beat the hell out of me; and my wife challenging me about my height ~ she was 1/2 an inch taller than me in the beginning When it came to macho my army career filled that void ~ I just loved a challenge.

We sold both our Toyota Prius and Toyota Tacoma to purchase the Model X. While the Model X one size fits all; I have carried horse troughs, lawnmowers, two Stressless chairs & ottomans with two big dogs etc in the X, but I am willing to bet you that even though we will be over 70 (68 now) by the time the Tesla Pickup rolls off the line, we will buy one, and my son-in-law will be chomping at the bit to inherit it! Oh yeah, that is if my wife does not push for a red roadster like the one headed for Mars

People are downsizing, and not buying cars the way fossil fuel wants ~ things are changing. Even Ford is stopping the production of its Taurus sedan. Things are changing ~ going macho (fossil fuel) could be Fords final chapter. I have never ever bought a Ford.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

And far less tuned in to technology. I don't think too many millenials would short TSLA. Everyone I speak to would love to own TSLA and better yet a Tesla.

There is some truth in this. when I hear my kids' friends teaming up to buy a share of Tesla or a bitcoin, I am reminded of J. P. Morgan's shoeshine boy.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Take a good long look at David Einhorn. He is the adversary of us longs. He’s not Big Oil. He’s not evil. In fact, he’s a big giver to many important causes.

But he has enormous funds under management, he’s short TSLA (and other stocks), and he plays to win. He will double down as long as needs to. We cannot compete with him.

The good news for us, though, is he’s not a Tesla hater. This is all about financials for him. If Tesla really starts generating cash and profits, he is likely to be among the first shorts to get out. He will take his losses and move on to other targets.

The shorts that are ideological will be the ones that get crushed. Not Einhorn.

Einhorn is our adversary now. Not the FUDsters, not the Tesla-haters. They are along for the ride, and will crash well after the Einhorns have ejected.

Cash flow and profits. That’s what wins this battle.

Exactly right. Any sign of sustainable, material profits or free cashflow, I will rethink my position.