TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Man that is some serious trading Volume so far today!

Today I saw 3 beautiful Tesla cars simultaneously, a Model 3 parked on the side, a Model S driving in front of me, and another Model S coming from the opposite side. In 2 years, we will have 1 million Teslas on the road. Also today a young man walked toward me while I was leaving the parking lot. He said Tesla is his dream car. I gave him a test ride, he was amazed by the car's performance, interior, big screen and sound system. He said this is his first time ever sitting in a Tesla. Now he will work really hard to buy his Tesla. I thank all the Model S and Model X owners for helping to make Model 3 a reality. Now the movement is going to gain speed. Once people test drive the Model 3, and understand it also saves more than $1000 a year on gasoline, nobody will consider ICE car again.

I added some shares around 280, no margin. Will continue to add in the next few months, next year, and the year after. Shorts picked the wrong company to bully. They asked for it. If I were them, I would be very worried. But that's their problem... I will go outside to enjoy some sunshine.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Worst case scenario, IPO SpaceX, cancel trip to Mars

Edit.(So no concerns regarding $$ for EM)

Now I feel kinda dumb. Yeah, that would probably work.

 

[ZachF]

Now the movement is going to gain speed. Once people test drive the Model 3, and understand it also saves more than $1000 a year on gasoline, nobody will consider ICE car again.

This is something not explained enough, IMHO.

A model 3 with 4mi/kwh has a per mile fuel cost (using the US average of $0.12/kwh) of 3 cents per mile. It's competitor cars with high twenties MPG and high $2 gas works out to about 10 cents per mile. If you drive the average 1000 miles a month, that's a monthly 'fuel' cost of $100 for your ICE car and $30 for your Model 3.

The "fuel" cost of a model 3 is roughly equivalent to a car that gets 80-90 mpg. That's with cheapish gas too.

If you're financing your car, that means you can afford a car that costs $4,000 more for the same monthly cost.

For the model S, most of it's competitors get the high teens for MPG in real life, giving a fuel cost of 15 cents per mile compared with 4 cents for the EV. This makes a model S competitive with a car that costs $6,000 less.

 

[mongo]

This is something not explained enough, IMHO.

A model 3 with 4mi/kwh has a per mile fuel cost (using the US average of $0.12/kwh) of 3 cents per mile. It's competitor cars with high twenties MPG and high $2 gas works out to about 10 cents per mile. If you drive the average 1000 miles a month, that's a monthly fuel cost of $100 for your ICE car and $30 for your Model 3.

The "fuel" cost of a model 3 is roughly equivalent to a car that gets 80-90 mpg.

If you're financing your car, that means you can afford a car that costs $4,000 more for the same monthly cost.

For the model S, most of it's competitors get the high teens for MPG in real life, giving a fuel cost of 15 cents per mile compared with 4 cents for the EV. This makes a model S competitive with a car that costs $6,000 less.

Tesla is the only reason I dislike my short commute...
May hit 17 million shares before close. Up from the open. Go Tesla!

 

[theschnell]

Spiegel Bottom number 2 Short-seller Mark Spiegel says Tesla stock is worth 'zero'

Apologies if already posted. I've not been able to read any posts today.

 

[neroden]

That's why we're saying 12 months - we are including the $900 million due in February.

Nothing's due in Feburary. Maybe you mean March?

If the stock price is over $360, which remains a possibility, nothing's due in March either.

If not, then Tesla has to refinance 920 million dollars. This isn't super hard. Hell, a 2% dilution of the stock would be in excess of needs, unless the stock price was below $270 at the time.

Unless things go far far worse than the worst case I can think of, they'll have enough internal profits to pay for the November 2019 maturity.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Nothing's due in Feburary. Maybe you mean March?

If the stock price is over $360, which remains a possibility, nothing's due in March either.

If not, then Tesla has to refinance 920 million dollars. This isn't super hard. Hell, a 2% dilution of the stock would be in excess of needs, unless the stock price was below $270 at the time.

Yes, sorry March.

 

[vinvin218]

Search about Tesla thru Chinese media for the last 24hrs, all top news are all about Tesla will announce gigafactory in China

as early as Q3. US media missing the BIG PICTURE , here is my tweet vincent on Twitter

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Nothing's due in Feburary. Maybe you mean March?

If the stock price is over $360, which remains a possibility, nothing's due in March either.

If not, then Tesla has to refinance 920 million dollars. This isn't super hard. Hell, a 2% dilution of the stock would be in excess of needs, unless the stock price was below $270 at the time.

Exactly. So why won't Musk just say "if we need to raise equity to pay off the $920 million (and the other $1.07 billion of debt & lease payments due in the next 12 months), we will". His continuing denial of that reality is the thing that all the professional/semi-pro investors are finding weird.

 

[neroden]

There is a some confusion over nuclear fission and nuclear fusion when it comes to the is it safe question, fission being the old somewhat dangerous type, fusion being the nascent safe type. A strong argument could be made that fusion is Tesla's biggest competitor (if they don't adopt it), especially 10-20 years from now.

Tesla has adopted fusion. Look up in the sky. See that yellow thing? (Don't stare at it!) That's the only fusion reactor which will ever be economically viable.

 

[neroden]

Could NLP trading algos be a major contributor to the price drop? If I trained an NLP algo on prior data and then read a transcript that the CEO of a company says to sell the stock, that might trigger a big selloff (not to mentioned all the negative media articles posted after).

Could be. News-driven algobots are a thing, unfortunately, and the Tesla short-sellers have been specifically manipulating them for years. (Anyone running a news-driven algobot is an idiot and will lose lots of money.)

 

[Unpilot]

Spiegel Bottom number 2 Short-seller Mark Spiegel says Tesla stock is worth 'zero'

Apologies if already posted. I've not been able to read any posts today.

I aren't that smart but did he really say this?

"Tesla's financials are horrible and worsening even before massive competition coming later this year … [The company has] no moat of any kind."

 

[ggr]

Exactly. So why won't Musk just say "if we need to raise equity to pay off the $920 million (and the other $1.07 billion of debt & lease payments due in the next 12 months), we will". His continuing denial of that reality is the thing that all the professional/semi-pro investors are finding weird.

Simple. Because he's absolutely certain he won't need to. And has said so, repeatedly. Just as you have continued to insist that he will.

Somehow I don't feel a need to say "If I need to beg on a street corner, I will."

 

[jelloslug]

Spiegel Bottom number 2 Short-seller Mark Spiegel says Tesla stock is worth 'zero'

Apologies if already posted. I've not been able to read any posts today.

Next thing you know, Spiegel is going to say that Musk actually the Grinch and has stolen all the Who Hash from Whoville.

 

[Motor Mouth]

I aren't that smart but did he really say this?

"Tesla's financials are horrible and worsening even before massive competition coming later this year … [The company has] no moat of any kind."

"Moats are stupid"
EM

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we're green by the end of the day.

This is an advice, so everyone buy right now.

Nailed it!

 

[madodel]

Nailed it!

Are you a financial analyst in your day job?

 

[larmor]

Exactly. So why won't Musk just say "if we need to raise equity to pay off the $920 million (and the other $1.07 billion of debt & lease payments due in the next 12 months), we will". His continuing denial of that reality is the thing that all the professional/semi-pro investors are finding weird.

Probably he gave in and finally updated his MS excel and can now project company financials over more than one week...

 

[SunCatcher]

Tesla has adopted fusion. Look up in the sky. See that yellow thing? (Don't stare at it!) That's the only fusion reactor which will ever be economically viable.

Point, but don't stare. "Burning daylight" is going to take on a whole new meaning when I get my Model 3. Come on VIN! Where are you? We're burning daylight here!

Why am I so happy today? Elon gives a major smackdown to analysts. Crammer stands behind him in it. Stock price takes a dive. And it's another sunny day in Arizona. Go figure.

 

[Drax7]

Once we negate this price gap down, by closing above it, this negative event
Will be irrelevant and no longer have follow through down. However to
Accomplish that we might need to see an increase in production or
Something of equivalent importance.

Once the gap down is negated , it’s time to get aggressive on the buy side.