TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Earlian]

100.000 new homes in California per year.

And they are encouraged to add batteries.

Who is the no.1 battery supplier in California?

Lets say 50% add a Powerwall and lets assume they will opt for the same constructor to deliver the solar panels:

Powerwall: 50.000 x 6600$ = 330.000.000 § per year

Solar: What is the tipical size in Cal? And what ist the price over there?

4-5k?

I'd guess the minimum: 500 Million USD more revenue per year only from California, rather 1B. - So thats +5-10% Revenue from 1 state! Wow.

What do you think? Can some local friend add more accuracy to those numbers...

 

[Tslynk67]

Cause it don't mean nothin'
The words that they say
Don't mean nothin'
These games that people play
No, it don't mean nothin'
No victim, no crime
It don't mean nothin'
Till you sign it on the dotted line

-Richard Marx

Sorry, @mongo, but have reported this post as being against the forum rules - Section 7.3.2 - Paragraph 4 - "Richard Marx quotations are expressly forbidden on the grounds of a) bad taste, b) upsetting to other forum members, c) could be construed as poetry"

Nothing personal...

 

[TradingInvest]

100.000 new homes in California per year.

And they are encouraged to add batteries.

Who is the no.1 battery supplier in California?

Lets say 50% add a Powerwall and lets assume they will opt for the same constructor to deliver the solar panels:

Powerwall: 50.000 x 6600$ = 330.000.000 § per year

Solar: What is the tipical size in Cal? And what ist the price over there?

4-5k?

I'd guess the minimum: 500 Million USD per year only from California

What do you think? Can some local friend add more accuracy to those numbers...

I see article estimates CA needs 180,000 new homes a year. For new constructions, solar roof makes more sense than premium roof + solar panels.

 

[SteveG3]

I see article estimates CA needs 180,000 new homes a year. For new constructions, solar roof makes more sense than premium roof + solar panels.

article I saw last week about the CA housing market said they've been averaging about 60,000 per year the last few years. for context, the article mentioned 150,000 single family housing starts was the high number in 2005 during the housing boom.

The rising trend in California construction starts | first tuesday Journal

that said, this is not just about single family homes, as you can see in another article about the proposal from last week, this applies to some apartment construction as well.

California to become first U.S. state mandating solar on new homes – Orange County Register

"In addition to widespread adoption of solar power, the new provisions include a push to increase battery storage and increase reliance on electricity over natural gas. Among the highlights:

• The new solar mandate would apply to all houses, condos and apartment buildings up to three stories tall that obtain building permits after Jan. 1, 2020.
• Exceptions or alternatives will be allowed when homes are shaded by trees or buildings or when the home’s roofs are too small to accommodate solar panels.
• Solar arrays can be smaller because homes won’t have to achieve true net-zero status.
• Builders installing batteries like the Tesla Powerwall would get “compliance credits,” allowing them to further reduce the size of the solar system.
• Provisions will encourage more electric use or even all-electric homes to reduce natural gas consumption. State officials say improved technology is making electric water heaters increasingly cost-effective."

 

[Waiting4M3]

Cause it don't mean nothin'
The words that they say
Don't mean nothin'
These games that people play
No, it don't mean nothin'
No victim, no crime
It don't mean nothin'
Till you sign it on the dotted line

-Richard Marx

time to remind everyone of the no poetry rule

 

[Motor Mouth]

And what ist the price over there?

4-5k?

I'd guess the minimum: 500 Million USD more revenue per year only from California, rather 1B. - So thats +5-10% Revenue from 1 state! Wow.

What do you think? Can some local friend add more accuracy to those numbers...

My quote to add solar this month is $13K for a small roof. Now, in my geographical area, I assume a 30-40% premium for everything, but still I think that for new construction adding solar is probably north of $5,000 to the consumer.

 

[madodel]

Sorry, @mongo, but have reported this post as being against the forum rules - Section 7.3.2 - Paragraph 4 - "Richard Marx quotations are expressly forbidden on the grounds of a) bad taste, b) upsetting to other forum members, c) could be construed as poetry"

Nothing personal...

You prefer Karl Marx instead?

 

[mltv]

All of these comments sounds like Elon Musk will be in manufacture hell for the next decade. Customers are still waiting for their cars, trucks, batteries, solar roof. The only thing he has in stock is probably solar panels.

 

[Tslynk67]

I’m pleased to see that TT007 got his mojo bsck...

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

All of these comments sounds like Elon Musk will be in manufacture hell for the next decade. Customers are still waiting for their cars, trucks, batteries, solar roof. The only thing he has in stock is probably solar panels.

In a perfect world, supply and demand are perfectly synchronized. In the imperfect world we live in, is better to have too much demand? Or not enough demand? I think the answer is obvious.

 

[Skryll]

"The rules include efforts to increase battery storage and increase use of electricity over natural gas. "

I really want that hybrid heat-pump gas furnace to replace my current gas furnace, but to offset the $800/year is hard to find a cost with positive ROI

 

[Todd Burch]

Even though the panels aren't required until 2020, some builders may choose to start doing it now, since having them will make the homes more attractive to buyers. In the future, when those buyers sell their homes, they'll be competing in the market against other homes that WILL have panels. Buyers will want new homes starting now to have them.

So Tesla better get crankin' on them shingles. And it's time for a few more battery factories.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I’m pleased to see that TT007 got his mojo bsck...

View attachment 299989

Even his cellphone battery is on margin.

 

[Curt Renz]

Even though the panels aren't required until 2020, some builders may choose to start doing it now, since having them will make the homes more attractive to buyers. In the future, when those buyers sell their homes, they'll be competing in the market against other homes that WILL have panels. Buyers will want new homes starting now to have them.

So Tesla better get crankin' on them shingles. And it's time for a few more battery factories.

And we can bet that the homebuilders' sales agents and design consultants will begin immediately expressing the same considerations to prospects.

 

[Waiting4M3]

TSLA has a green candle (close > open) for 10 consecutive days. Not sure what it means, just seems unusual.

 

[madodel]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[brian45011]

All of these comments sounds like Elon Musk will be in manufacture hell for the next decade. Customers are still waiting for their cars, trucks, batteries, solar roof. The only thing he has in stock is probably solar panels.

Maybe not waiting on batteries so much

"Gross margin for energy generation and storage decreased from 29% to 8% in the three months ended March 31, 2018 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2017 . Energy storage revenue as a percentage of energy generation and storage revenue was higher for the three months ended March 31, 2018 as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2017, resulting in lower gross margin as we had negative margins for energy storage due to manufacturing under-utilization and one-time costs."

 

[JRP3]

I’m pleased to see that TT007 got his mojo bsck...

By "mojo" you mean manic delusional tweets? Why would you be pleased to see that? Dude needs serious help.

 

[JRP3]

But have you seen the Leaf's crash test?

Sure, and completely irrelevant to the topic.

 

[Etna]

Love that 'don't mess with Tesla' video. Maybe the anti-sell is coming soon to an end?

T1

• Etna
• May 9, 2018

T2

• Etna
• May 9, 2018