TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Read the fine print

It's not even fine print, it's same font size, inline, with a warning icon in the manual.

See also driver killed in China

It was never determined if AP was on.
https://jalopnik.com/two-years-on-a-father-is-still-fighting-tesla-over-aut-1823189786
Until this article, I hadn't known it was the driver's parent's car.

 

[AlMc]

Well, still at Tesla right?

No. And AFAIK he is enjoying retirement. However, he is still young so I would not be surprised IF he turned up in another position at another company/givernment.

 

[schonelucht]

Panasonic is projecting 35 GWh capacity in Nevada for fiscal year 2019.

Yes, that's what I said?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Some women I have worked with that had children.. but newborns are so damn cute that its hard to leave them at home or with child care services.

Are you serious ? You expect AP to slam in every standing object in the street ?

Apart from AP the emergency braking should have reacted

are you serious? Do you expect your car to stop at every turn in the road since there will be stationary object straight ahead?

Do you really think drivers should be distracted to point of totally not keeping eyes on the road ahead? It’s not level 4 or 5 yet. The car also doesn’t fly yet as well

 

[Chickenlittle]

Great post. I recall Elon saying that hiring on with Tesla is like joining the Special Forces. Maybe Tesla needs to encourage employees, including executives, to take sabbaticals when needed. Perhaps they're already doing that, as evidenced by Doug Fields' leave of absence. Great things can be accomplished with intense focus and long hours, but most of us need breaks. Members of the Special Forces are no exception.

I think tesla needs to hire for two different types of track much like universities hire tenure track and non tenure track employees. People hired into one track would be expected to bust ass and perform (like tenure track) and be paid more. Others performing routine jobs of course paid less but reliability expected. People in this track could move up if they are up to it just as first class could drop back if burning out

 

[ggr]

No. And AFAIK he is enjoying retirement. However, he is still young so I would not be surprised IF he turned up in another position at another company/givernment.

According to his own linkedin page, he's still at Tesla. In Colorado. Now, why would he update his location but not his job listing?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

The timing of Doug's leave of absence is what is most interesting. Rose colored glasses may view the timing as a signal that they have reached a point where the 5k per week is well within reach. I doubt that Doug would take time off at this critical a juncture without confidence that all is well.

A Tesla spokesman said in a statement:
“Doug is just taking some time off to recharge and spend time with his family. He has not left Tesla.”

China will likely be the focus in 2019 so Doug may have another big challenge ahead of himself. Good opportunity to recharge and get some semblance of work-life balance back.

What worries me is if Elon sent him home. No problem if Doug decided he needs a break.
Early on in Tesla's days there was an all powerful Elon's admin assistant that had power of VP and was very independent. She was known to speak for Elon and was able to push people around. After she asked for VP type of compensation, Elon sent her to a leave of absence to evaluate her role, and subsequently packaged her off. Ot at least this is the story as told in Vance's book. Hard to know how much is true, but I don't doubt part where he sent her home.
Similarly, Elon is now doing a lot of Doug's role. Another evaluation? Or Doug has just burnt out? Later one, I'm 100% ok with...

 

[mongo]

What worries me is if Elon sent him home. No problem if Doug decided he needs a break.
Early on in Tesla's days there was an all powerful Elon's admin assistant that had power of VP and was very independent. She was known to speak for Elon and was able to push people around. After she asked for VP type of compensation, Elon sent her to a leave of absence to evaluate her role, and subsequently packaged her off. Ot at least this is the story as told in Vance's book. Hard to know how much is true, but I don't doubt part where he sent her home.
Similarly, Elon is now doing a lot of Doug's role. Another evaluation? Or Doug has just burnt out? Later one, I'm 100% ok with...

 

[182RG]

According to his own linkedin page, he's still at Tesla. In Colorado. Now, why would he update his location but not his job listing?

Finishing out an employment agreement. He’s probably still being paid as part of it, hence the title.

 

[hobbes]

are you serious? Do you expect your car to stop at every turn in the road since there will be stationary object straight ahead?

Come on, it´s not that simple. Autopilot has shown that it can navigate curves very well, so it knows its trajectory a bit into the future. With that knowledge it can identify if an object is in its path or not.

That said I know it is obviously a problem to switch on the braking for stationary objects due to other corner cases leading to false positives. But I do think that is a serious shortcoming of AP, even it is well documented and any user who read the manual should know that.

We all agree that legally Tesla is not at fault as the driver has to monitor what´s going on and is responsible to brake if there is a stationary object. However, given the level of advancement of the rest of the system one would intuitively not expect AP to ignore those objects.

Also, there have been some serious accidents due to this shortcoming. I am sure Tesla is doing everything they can to improve AP in this regard. But they are making a choice by keeping the system running like it is and that´s up for discussion.

 

[AlMc]

According to his own linkedin page, he's still at Tesla. In Colorado. Now, why would he update his location but not his job listing?

You are correct. But the statement released by Tesla seems to support that he 'move on' (left?) Maybe he comes back, maybe he never 'left'.

“For more than 11 years, Diarmuid has played an important role in helping Tesla grow from a small startup to a company with a presence around the world. He started with Tesla before the rollout of Roadster, and now that we’ve reached the launch of Model 3, he felt the time was right to move on and spend more time with his family. We wish him the best. Diarmuid’s team and responsibilities will now roll up to Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President of Global Sales and Service.”

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

View attachment 300864

Are you implying this doesn't fit with my statement? Are you taking at face value Elon's statements? I read them as corporate speak.
I feel it completely fits.
We could find out in few months that Doug's role required number of other execs to replace his skill-set, just like Mary-Beth. Or perhaps there wasn't a need to hire his replacement, just like Jon McNeil?
I like culture that cultivates loyalty. Value of the company is in the product/customer/brand, but also in the people/processes/knowledge and if you have revolving door type of company, you're constantly rebuilding.
In conclusion, I wish Doug was burnt out and needed break, my fear is that's not the case. We don't know. But I'm afraid I'm better at reading corporate statements than most people here...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

According to his own linkedin page, he's still at Tesla. In Colorado. Now, why would he update his location but not his job listing?

He's likely still under package agreement, being paid, maybe formally employed, and has his shares quietly vest... 12 months, up to 24 months would not be unusual for his kind of position. He may even resurface back at Tesla, if he and Elon didn't leave things too broken. But it doesn't mean there wasn't a serious falling out...

 

[Waiting4M3]

What worries me is if Elon sent him home. No problem if Doug decided he needs a break.
Early on in Tesla's days there was an all powerful Elon's admin assistant that had power of VP and was very independent. She was known to speak for Elon and was able to push people around. After she asked for VP type of compensation, Elon sent her to a leave of absence to evaluate her role, and subsequently packaged her off. Ot at least this is the story as told in Vance's book. Hard to know how much is true, but I don't doubt part where he sent her home.
Similarly, Elon is now doing a lot of Doug's role. Another evaluation? Or Doug has just burnt out? Later one, I'm 100% ok with...

IIRC Doug was on the Q1 conf call with Elon, JB, Deepak. Maybe a sign that he's not in the dog house?

 

[wnorris]

What worries me is if Elon sent him home. No problem if Doug decided he needs a break.
Early on in Tesla's days there was an all powerful Elon's admin assistant that had power of VP and was very independent. She was known to speak for Elon and was able to push people around. After she asked for VP type of compensation, Elon sent her to a leave of absence to evaluate her role, and subsequently packaged her off. Ot at least this is the story as told in Vance's book. Hard to know how much is true, but I don't doubt part where he sent her home.
Similarly, Elon is now doing a lot of Doug's role. Another evaluation? Or Doug has just burnt out? Later one, I'm 100% ok with...

Executive attrition at Amazon was pretty bad during their core growth years. I do not believe it is easy to work for Jeff Bezos or Elon. I do hope that Doug is taking time off at his own discretion rather than being asked to leave. Hard to tell as the timing for this points to either him being asked to leave or his taking time off for a bigger role/different task.

In 2002 I got the chance to meet Jeff Wilke at one of Amazon's distro centers. Jeff was a transformational hire for Amazon and laid the foundation for Amazon's ordering and distribution network. One positive of regular turnover is that a superstar will inevitably rise from the ranks or be brought in if you are continually hiring the best of the best. I just hope that Tesla can recognize the stars and keep them around. A stagnant or flailing stock price certainly does not help in this situation.

 

[Teslie]

Diarmuid’s team and responsibilities will now roll up to Jon McNeill, Tesla’s President of Global Sales and Service.”

And McNeill also left in February, being "replaced" by Elon. Hmmmm...

"One positive of regular turnover is that a superstar will inevitably rise from the ranks or be brought in if you are continually hiring the best of the best. "

 

[Krugerrand]

What worries me is if Elon sent him home. No problem if Doug decided he needs a break.
Early on in Tesla's days there was an all powerful Elon's admin assistant that had power of VP and was very independent. She was known to speak for Elon and was able to push people around. After she asked for VP type of compensation, Elon sent her to a leave of absence to evaluate her role, and subsequently packaged her off. Ot at least this is the story as told in Vance's book. Hard to know how much is true, but I don't doubt part where he sent her home.
Similarly, Elon is now doing a lot of Doug's role. Another evaluation? Or Doug has just burnt out? Later one, I'm 100% ok with...

Burnt out, sent home, getting a makeover- it doesn’t matter. Tesla will go on whether he returns in 6 weeks or not. Is it ever going to be possible for people to not get bent/‘concerned’/worried et al every time an employee of Tesla leaves? Especially when coming from people who’ve been here and involved in TSLA long enough to have seen this movie played before? Save your worry for a JB departure.

 

[mongo]

Are you implying this doesn't fit with my statement? Are you taking at face value Elon's statements? I read them as corporate speak.
I feel it completely fits.
We could find out in few months that Doug's role required number of other execs to replace his skill-set, just like Mary-Beth. Or perhaps there wasn't a need to hire his replacement, just like Jon McNeil?
I like culture that cultivates loyalty. Value of the company is in the product/customer/brand, but also in the people/processes/knowledge and if you have revolving door type of company, you're constantly rebuilding.
In conclusion, I wish Doug was burnt out and needed break, my fear is that's not the case. We don't know. But I'm afraid I'm better at reading corporate statements than most people here...

Merely providing information related to

Or at least this is the story as told in Vance's book.

Especially given:

 

[kbM3]

Pretty obvious they used Samsung cells instead of GF cells for Hornsdale because they did not have enough cells for Model 3, powerwall other powerpacks,and Hornsdale project.

Hornsdale required 100 MW and 129 MWh (0.75C from the battery).

Standard Powerpacks are 50 kW and 210 kWh or 0.25C.

I wonder if the higher C rate requirement for Hornsdale was a factor?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yes, that's what I said?

No, you said 35 GW/year without saying anything about when. That it refers to 2019 is quite valuable information. The progression might be something like this:

2018: 20 GWh/year
2019: 35 GWh/year
2020: 55 GWh/year
2021: 75 GWh/year
2022: 105 GWh/year

The exact ramp remains to be seen. But the end target is likely somewhere in the 100-150 GWh/year range.