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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I hadn't seen this linked here yet, but it's a pretty brief financially-based article from a short on SA, allowing that profits may be attainable in Q3 and Q4. It presents a bullish next 6-9 months followed by a bearish future. Get ready for shorts to move the goal posts again soon - "ok, so TSLA was able to pretend to be profitable through some short term smoke and mirrors, but it's only temporary."
How Tesla Becomes Profitable Q3/Q4 - donroband | Seeking Alpha
 
I hadn't seen this linked here yet, but it's a pretty brief financially-based article from a short on SA, allowing that profits may be attainable in Q3 and Q4. It presents a bullish next 6-9 months followed by a bearish future. Get ready for shorts to move the goal posts again soon - "ok, so TSLA was able to pretend to be profitable through some short term smoke and mirrors, but it's only temporary."
How Tesla Becomes Profitable Q3/Q4 - donroband | Seeking Alpha

His assumption is that Model 3 margins go down after one or two quarters of 5000/week because of lower ASP (never mind that in that period deliveries of high ASP cars start in Europe).
He also assumes that when Tesla reaches 5000/week, they will stay at 5000/week for the next 3 quarters.
He estimates Model 3 margins to go down to 14% by the end of 2018.

However, if you believe that Tesla will reach heir target margins of around 25% at 5000/week, Tesla remains profitable. If you believe that Tesla will increase Model 3 production over that year with better capital efficiency than the first 5000/week, the profitability will even be bigger.

Edit: he also assumes that energy revenue will stay at the q1 level, while Tesla iirc has projected x3 growth in 2018.
 
His assumption is that Model 3 margins go down after one or two quarters of 5000/week because of lower ASP (never mind that in that period deliveries of high ASP cars start in Europe).
He also assumes that when Tesla reaches 5000/week, they will stay at 5000/week for the next 3 quarters.
He estimates Model 3 margins to go down to 14% by the end of 2018.

However, if you believe that Tesla will reach heir target margins of around 25% at 5000/week, Tesla remains profitable. If you believe that Tesla will increase Model 3 production over that year with better capital efficiency than the first 5000/week, the profitability will even be bigger.

Edit: he also assumes that energy revenue will stay at the q1 level, while Tesla iirc has projected x3 growth in 2018.
So they can't build the Model 3, They can't sell the Model 3 (despite having 400k+ reservations), and now it will be so successful it will bankrupt them.

How many billions do the bears/shorts have to lose before they accept that they are clueless?
 
It was never determined if AP was on.
https://jalopnik.com/two-years-on-a-father-is-still-fighting-tesla-over-aut-1823189786
Until this article, I hadn't known it was the driver's parent's car.

Also, "his son, who had been driving for more than 5 years and had a perfect record driving heavy trucks during military service"

Both this and the death in Mountain View are tragedies, and neither litigation should be allowed to fester. While any publicity may be good publicity, that aphorism does not apply when lives have been lost. In most instances, these kinds of mis-fortunate fact scenarios are resolved quickly, quietly and equitably out of the limelight. The father's demand is apparently for an apology for overstating AP's capabilities and $750k as damages.

A defense predicated on blaming the decedent is generally a loser. In the US, with a competent plaintiff's counsel and a sympathetic jury, the verdict in wrongful death/ survivor actions will likely include excessive awards of indirect damages such as for mental anguish and punitive damages.
 
Panasonic is projecting 35 GWh capacity in Nevada for fiscal year 2019.

Page 5
https://www.panasonic.com/global/corporate/ir/pdf/pana_digest_e_1004.pdf

Both Tesla and Panasonic have stated that as of January 4, 2017:

"Tesla and Panasonic began mass production of lithium-ion battery cells, which will be used in Tesla’s energy storage products and Model 3."
Battery Cell Production Begins at the Gigafactory

Why have neither Tesla nor Panasonic disclosed (either annually or quarterly) the production volume in MWh since mass production began 16 months ago? Wouldn't it be relevant information for investors in either company?
 
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Have to disagree. The accidents are due to driver inattention
The responsibility lies with the driver. But Tesla could also do more to help. The main reason for AP is that humans are often bad drivers, and AP can help prevent human errors. Inattentive drivers will always be there, and Tesla should do as much as they can to limit the consequences of driver inattention, it benefits everyone, the drivers, the company, and the investors, everyone except the "Lora"s. Tesla hitting stationary objects seems to be the main FUD attack vector right now, such as this accident, and hitting stuff by accident while parking. Even though these are all user errors and not Tesla's fault, Tesla can and should try to do more to stop users from making these mistakes.
 
Just an observation:

Many people here and on wall street seem not to be able to realize the notion that a persons motivation can reach beyond enrichment. When it is inferred that some sort of scam is occurring where Tesla is concerned is a reflection of the person making the charge rather than reality.
The mission is: accelerating the advent of sustainable transportation and energy.
Early on, Musk asked how he could effect beneficial change for humanity and tore it down to the fundamental components of not destroying the place we live and extending our reach into cosmos to the benefit of our continuity.

So that's what is being done.

The implication a some nefarious mission is at adversarial odds with everything this particular individual has done in his life to date.

In the summer of 2012 at the first Teslive event Elon came in and met with us in a fairly small gathering where he himself stated that he felt he was among friends. One of the participants brought him a bottle of wine and he cracked it and poured a glass for,the both of them at his urging. As the conversation and questions came, one asked a question referencing attributes that were important to Elon when hiring or choosing someone to work with. In a very familiar way, he paused and gave thought to,it for a moment and said, "someone with a good heart... yes.. a good heart." He went on to explain that while technical competence is important, ones motivation was equal with that.

Many on this forum were there that day (Bonnie, DaveT and all of you, feel free to chime in) and I cannot help but think that this interaction with him is a fundamental component of being a long investor.

Elon Musk has my confidence because he is motivated by the mission rather than the pursuit of wealth for it's own sake. He strives to surround himself with excellence and people "with a good heart". He has managed these components into something that is crazy cool, popular and fulfills the mission and as a side, benefits those that support the goal of the mission via working with and investing in his ideas and ability to excecute them (read companies) which by the way produce real products with real benefits (read, true value) which is fundamentally different than "creation of wealth" via "financial instruments"

It is staggering to see the amount of effort invested in destroying the next economic revolution that is clearly aimed at benefiting the majority rather than a few beneficiaries running the game.

Betting against the concept of Tesla is betting against a viable solution to sustainable growth of wealth and opportunity for the vast majority of humanity. We truly live a time where well financed minority opinions can be promulgated to manipulate individuals into taking actions contrary to their own interests. Time was when news was an implied public service requirement of those granted license to our airwaves. (Yeh, the internet should count) No more as, generally, accuracy is sacrificed in the name of "free" (read advertising model) access to media. (Yet another avenue shunned by Tesla)

I write this to add a bit of color to those looking for it. I trust not only in what I saw and heard at the first Teslive event, but in the continuing accomplishment of the stated goals along with a constant stream of the next thing.

I remain long, because if this fails, the implications go far beyond my individual financial well being, my children and their children will inherit a legacy of short sighted benefit without regard to the well being of our species.

Fire Away!
 
Both Tesla and Panasonic have stated that as of January 4, 2017:

"Tesla and Panasonic began mass production of lithium-ion battery cells, which will be used in Tesla’s energy storage products and Model 3."
Battery Cell Production Begins at the Gigafactory

Why have neither Tesla nor Panasonic disclosed (either annually or quarterly) the production volume in MWh since mass production began 16 months ago? Wouldn't it be relevant information for investors in either company?

Because also conspiracy.

Do you and @schonelucht think the passive aggressive questions are clever?
 
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Also, "his son, who had been driving for more than 5 years and had a perfect record driving heavy trucks during military service"

Do you think that driving record is special or somehow a standout compared to the rest of the driving population as a whole? Because I don’t. Nor do I think it means the person is immune to distracted driving, hot dogging, speeding, running red lights, not signalling, not curbing a vehicle, hitting the accelerator instead if the brake, using various fruits or any other thousands of driving mistakes, errors and the like. Perfect driving record means you just haven’t been caught making a mistake by the po-po or God.
 
The responsibility lies with the driver. But Tesla could also do more to help. The main reason for AP is that humans are often bad drivers, and AP can help prevent human errors. Inattentive drivers will always be there, and Tesla should do as much as they can to limit the consequences of driver inattention, it benefits everyone, the drivers, the company, and the investors, everyone except the "Lora"s. Tesla hitting stationary objects seems to be the main FUD attack vector right now, such as this accident, and hitting stuff by accident while parking. Even though these are all user errors and not Tesla's fault, Tesla can and should try to do more to stop users from making these mistakes.

I vote for electric shock seats. You take your hand off the wheel: zap. You look down: zap. You pick your nose the wrong way: zap.
 
Report from Freemont on Model 3 Production line 5/13/2018 (midday):

* 4290- Last 7 days production of M3
* 638- Last 24hrs production of M3

The last line shutdown/retooling had a significant improvement on the speed of the M3 line. Everything is working in conjunction like intended and no bottlenecks anywhere. The upcoming May line shutdown for retooling is going to be much shorter than past, and currently scheduled for May 26-27th weekend. Shutdown could get moved up if production continues to increase at its current rate. The sentiment from the line is 5k sustained is pretty much guaranteed and 6k before end of June is very likely. Bottom line is I was told this is as good as Tesla employees have felt about the M3 production since production began.
 
Report from Freemont on Model 3 Production line 5/13/2018 (midday):

* 4290- Last 7 days production of M3
* 638- Last 24hrs production of M3

The last line shutdown/retooling had a significant improvement on the speed of the M3 line. Everything is working in conjunction like intended and no bottlenecks anywhere. The upcoming May line shutdown for retooling is going to be much shorter than past, and currently scheduled for May 26-27th weekend. Shutdown could get moved up if production continues to increase at its current rate. The sentiment from the line is 5k sustained is pretty much guaranteed and 6k before end of June is very likely. Bottom line is I was told this is as good as Tesla employees have felt about the M3 production since production began.

Thanks for this. If true, and I do believe you, then things are looking much better/faster than what I would have predicted.
 
Report from Freemont on Model 3 Production line 5/13/2018 (midday):

* 4290- Last 7 days production of M3
* 638- Last 24hrs production of M3

The last line shutdown/retooling had a significant improvement on the speed of the M3 line. Everything is working in conjunction like intended and no bottlenecks anywhere. The upcoming May line shutdown for retooling is going to be much shorter than past, and currently scheduled for May 26-27th weekend. Shutdown could get moved up if production continues to increase at its current rate. The sentiment from the line is 5k sustained is pretty much guaranteed and 6k before end of June is very likely. Bottom line is I was told this is as good as Tesla employees have felt about the M3 production since production began.


these are really big numbers
 
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