TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

these are really big numbers

They are and why I don’t believe them. These numbers would mean twice as many 3s are being shipped out the door as S and X combined. There’s no world evidence of that. There’s evidence of an equal amount of 3s to S and X though.

 

[generalenthu]

I didn’t know about convertible bond arbitrage, what’s the better outcome for the bond buyer, stock going up or down?

Neither. Best for them is for the stock to be range bound and volatile. This action is actually a good deal for the arbs.

 

[Ugliest1]

Just an observation:

Many people here and on wall street seem not to be able to realize the notion that a persons motivation can reach beyond enrichment. When it is inferred that some sort of scam is occurring where Tesla is concerned is a reflection of the person making the charge rather than reality.

While I like your whole post, I have to say +1,000 on your second sentence for explaining what happens on the internet (and elsewhere). I absolutely believe people do tend to attribute their own motives to others. In other words, person Y sees person X doing something, and Y would immediately think that X's actions were because of what Y's motivation would be to do the same thing. Whereas, in truth, we would have no clue what X's motivation was without actually talking to X.

From a Tesla perspective and generalizing scandalously, if you see someone writing that Elon is a con artist, what could be really going on is that the writer normally thinks like a con artist and is attributing what would motivate *THEM* on Elon. This won't be true in all cases, but I'd bet it's quite prevalent.

 

[Ugliest1]

Do you think that driving record is special or somehow a standout compared to the rest of the driving population as a whole? Because I don’t. Nor do I think it means the person is immune to distracted driving, hot dogging, speeding, running red lights, not signalling, not curbing a vehicle, hitting the accelerator instead if the brake, using various fruits or any other thousands of driving mistakes, errors and the like. Perfect driving record means you just haven’t been caught making a mistake by the po-po or God.

This is true, and I'd add that someone with a perfect record *likely* doesn't realize just how fast sh*t can happen, since they haven't been in a comparable situation.

 

[Alketi]

Paging @augkuo . We need an emergency drive-by of the production lot.

 

[Ugliest1]

I vote for electric shock seats. You take your hand off the wheel: zap. You look down: zap. You pick your nose the wrong way: zap.

What's the right way to pick your nose? I've had to stop since 2014 because of so many people looking at the car. I used to be able to get away with it (I think.....). Is this a new bear argument? "Can't pick your nose without training"?

 

[madodel]

While I like your whole post, I have to say +1,000 on your second sentence for explaining what happens on the internet (and elsewhere). I absolutely believe people do tend to attribute their own motives to others. In other words, person Y sees person X doing something, and Y would immediately think that X's actions were because of what Y's motivation would be to do the same thing. Whereas, in truth, we would have no clue what X's motivation was without actually talking to X.

From a Tesla perspective and generalizing scandalously, if you see someone writing that Elon is a con artist, what could be really going on is that the writer normally thinks like a con artist and is attributing what would motivate *THEM* on Elon. This won't be true in all cases, but I'd bet it's quite prevalent.

It is called projection:
the unconscious transfer of one's own desires or emotions to another person.

Thing is a lot of these accusations aren't unconscious. It is deliberate attempt at manipulation.

 

[bdy0627]

Barrett Riley, one of the sadly teen victim died on May 10th Florida Tesla crash, also got a 112 mph speeding ticket in March 2018.

here is my tweet with link : vincent on Twitter

It's a tragic accident that appears to be almost certainly due to reckless driving at very high speed. The driver's Aunt was quoted saying: “It’s ridiculous that in 2018 they are making cars that are plush and modern but not safe,” she said. “I loved my nephew. He was wonderful. I want every car company in America to hear my plea.”
This teenager was recklessly driving the safest car in the world but still died. I don't think that's on the car. Because of the driver's history of reckless driving at high speeds, his father had his Tesla limited to 85 mph. Even that evidently wasn't enough to save him from himself.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

and 6k before end of June is very likely.

sustained or burst?

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

sustained or burst?

Sustained.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Sustained.

You're making a lot of bears sad right now:

 

[Krugerrand]

What's the right way to pick your nose? I've had to stop since 2014 because of so many people looking at the car. I used to be able to get away with it (I think.....). Is this a new bear argument? "Can't pick your nose without training"?

There most certainly is a right and wrong way, but I like to adhere to the forum rules like my life depends on it and therefore must insist we stop discussing as it’s off topic.

 

[Big Earl]

You're making a lot of bears sad right now:

No, no. It’s happy bears now. Remember, Tesla loses money on every vehicle they sell, so they’re losing money faster!

 

[generalenthu]

Sustained.

I don't think this can be right. Elon just called for 6k burst rate, so that 5k could be sustained. There was a report of at least one supplier unable to potentially hit a 6k burst rate by June month end on the Tesla daily podcast, which I take is reasonable reliable information.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Barrett Riley, one of the sadly teen victim died on May 10th Florida Tesla crash, also got a 112 mph speeding ticket in March 2018.

here is my tweet with link : vincent on Twitter

When I was a teenager, there was no such thing as a speeding ticket for such excessive speed. It was straight to jail and license revoked.

Shame that didn't happen in this case. Could have served as the wake-up call needed to save a couple lives.

 

[vinvin218]

Report from Freemont on Model 3 Production line 5/13/2018 (midday):

* 4290- Last 7 days production of M3
* 638- Last 24hrs production of M3

The last line shutdown/retooling had a significant improvement on the speed of the M3 line. Everything is working in conjunction like intended and no bottlenecks anywhere. The upcoming May line shutdown for retooling is going to be much shorter than past, and currently scheduled for May 26-27th weekend. Shutdown could get moved up if production continues to increase at its current rate. The sentiment from the line is 5k sustained is pretty much guaranteed and 6k before end of June is very likely. Bottom line is I was told this is as good as Tesla employees have felt about the M3 production since production began.

Thanks for the valuable info, I do believe your M3 production rate, it does match to my research and I did post this on May 8th

From the Tesla supply chain orders, indicating Model 3 are getting close to 5K per week

here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter

 

[Jayjs20]

A tad off topic, but does anyone have the day's chart of volkswagon's squeeze on October 28, 2008? All I can find are the day's end price.

 

[defc0n]

edit: very old news, sorry

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is anyone sleeping tonight, or are we all waiting 4 am eastern?

 

[sundaymorning]

Thanks for the valuable info, I do believe your M3 production rate, it does match to my research and I did post this on May 8th

From the Tesla supply chain orders, indicating Model 3 are getting close to 5K per week

here is my tweet : vincent on Twitter

I think anything extrapolated from suppliers would have to be extended 6 weeks out to allow production, delivery and then implementation. So I don’t intend for Tesla to push for the 5k rate until at least June 20th. But good info