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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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@jbcarioca Does this post change your opinion on whether the quote applies to white interior or P? Maybe both for the next 3 or 4 months?

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No. I still think it means white interior only. There could be motor, control unit shortages but I don't think so. Anyway, none of us know for certain.
 
Here is where my credibility rests (in other words, I like the Baird outfit).

Tesla to rally 50% because media negativity is ‘increasingly immaterial’: Baird

Now, show me the money:) Those of you lucky folks that had the cash to buy in around $275, I consider you lucky and wish you the best ~ okay, I am jealous:) Sill wish you the best:)

I think the price will be depressed for quite some time. I even doubt that the confirmation of 5000 per week and one quarter of cash flow neutral would gives us much boost in stock price. Bears never believed 5000 would mean profitability and result of a single quarter can easily be dismissed as financial engineering. We will probably have to wait until q2 2019 when Tesla show sustained profitability.
 
Yes, it's called a 10b5-1 safe harbor. There is no specific time that it has to be set in advance, just that if the executive routinely has access to non-public material information, it has to be in place far enough in advance that they cannot plan things like "sell on May 23". The actual terms of sales can be quite formulaic, too. For example, someone noted that one of the execs normally sells some shares each month but didn't this month (don't remember details, don't have time to look them up), but the trading plan might say "I'll sell 500 shares on the second tuesday each month so long as the price is above $300", or "I'll place a $300 limit sell order" or something like that. The charts could actually support such an idea, we often see quite flat trading around some even numbers.
Remember, however, that the safe habor is optional. Musk can simply buy shares and file Form 4 to let everyone else know he is doing it, *and he did recently*. Same with selling. As long as it is not market manipulation it is legal.
 
That's noble of Tesla. I am not very proud of many of my fellow Chinese folks though. The dominate mindset is to buy expensive stuff for showing off ones wealth. Enjoying other's envy is the only thing that matters, the product features don't matter.
Thorstein Veblen wrote a book about this. (I went to the same college as him; he's our most famous alum.)
 
No. I still think it means white interior only. There could be motor, control unit shortages but I don't think so. Anyway, none of us know for certain.


Sorry, just trying to get a clear understanding of your position.

Are you two saying that P production for the next "three to four months" could exceed the "1,000/week" referenced below?



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Remember, however, that the safe habor is optional. Musk can simply buy shares and file Form 4 to let everyone else know he is doing it, *and he did recently*. Same with selling. As long as it is not market manipulation it is legal.
I agree, but, if there's a safe harbor deal in place and the executive in question abides by it, there's no point anyone complaining about it, or shareholders or others starting frivolous lawsuits, or stuff like that. It's protection against charges of insider trading, not market manipulation.
 
Thorstein Veblen wrote a book about this. (I went to the same college as him; he's our most famous alum.)
In an example of wasteful pursuits I did a MA using TOTLC and some more arcane expositions as sources. To prove my working class credentials I used Vance Packard and Eric Hoffer too. During that ill-spent time i did finally figure out that some products needed to have high prices to justify themselves to their purchasers.

The dilemma of the moment is, in part, figuring out how Tesla can cease to become more than it has been. Somehow I think we need to understand that Packard's paperback wonder "The Status Seekers" will always be part of the Tesla brand, even for public utilities. This could go OT, but it would be very pertinent to understand how much premium to accord to the Tesla brand.
 
I think the price will be depressed for quite some time. I even doubt that the confirmation of 5000 per week and one quarter of cash flow neutral would gives us much boost in stock price. Bears never believed 5000 would mean profitability and result of a single quarter can easily be dismissed as financial engineering. We will probably have to wait until q2 2019 when Tesla show sustained profitability.
But we're not looking for bears to buy stock, that's why they're bears by definition. I think there are longs who've been burned by the multiple ramp delays, they will be temped to buy in once 5k/wk is confirmed, and more casual investors will be tempted once cash flow starts to look better. Q3 financials will come out in Nov, but by Sep it will become obvious that calls like Adam Jonas's "cap raise in Q3" is BS. I think it will be a gradual rise starting in early July.
 
Sorry, just trying to get a clear understanding of your position.

Are you two saying that P production for the next "three to four months" could exceed the "1,000/week" referenced below?

Yes, as long as people want the black interior. ;) Though I don't expect P production to start until the end of June, or beginning of July.
 
But we're not looking for bears to buy stock, that's why they're bears by definition...
Many of us think that people who short a security do not think it has value. Events like Enron, Penn Central and many others reinforce that view. Factually professional short-sellers deal in negative sentiment and or securities they think to be intrinsically overvalued.

TSLA now and AAPL earlier were anomalies because they have ignored two short-seller cardinal rules:
Do not short if:
1. the company has a very high growth rate;
2. the company has highly satisfied customers.
If one of those applies shorting is unusually risky. if both apply it is analogous to motorcycle autocross racing without a helmet. i.e. you might survive but you have higher probability of serious injury or death.

With so many good shorting candidates why tempt fate?
 
It was the word of the day. As such I’m obligated to use it in a sentence. Obligated is tomorrow’s word of the day, so I’m done until Friday.
It behooves us not to feel obligated to use the word of the day before it is obligatory. Thursday doesn't count! ;-)
 
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