Does it matter in terms of shorting? I see it as an outlier (for a number of reasons), in terms of market behaviour, and therefore, irrelevant. You can make a trip to Amsterdam/Madrid/Hong Kong/... and maybe you'll change your mind. I think there will be several waves modelling Tesla adoption and we're just at the beginning of the second one.
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Does it matter in terms of shorting? I see it as an outlier (for a number of reasons), in terms of market behaviour, and therefore, irrelevant. You can make a trip to Amsterdam/Madrid/Hong Kong/... and maybe you'll change your mind. I think there will be several waves modelling Tesla adoption and we're just at the beginning of the second one.
Don't live there, but travel through it quite often and indeed you don't see a lot of native Teslas at the (numerous) Superchargers - it's usually foreigners, like us.
You'll see loads in Belgium, Holland and Denmark though.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Interesting take on projected numbers for Tesla going out to 2024. Gali is pretty high on what he sees down the road for the company. We'll see what plays out. What I am interested in however is what the stock will do in the short term...say the next 3-6 months. Gonna be a wild ride.
Dan
Dan
I understand that, but these are high traffic areas, and I am seeing some big expensive cars, especially the SUVs so it's not like these are poor areas that can't afford Teslas. And not just German made unless they are manufacturing KIAs and Jeeps in Germany now.
I had heard about Amsterdam and HK, but interesting about Madrid. I do need to travel more.
1. I can comment from a Belgium perspective - on my daily short commute of 13km I can spot easily 5 different model S/X's.
2. Does it matter? Sales in Germany is going up YoY so does it matter whether you can spot them?
3. Lol @ shorting based on anecdotical evidence if you're not sarcastic; I think the average short is just as smart.
Shorting TSLA is stupid, but I'm just trying to understand if/why there is little if any penetration in the German market at this point. Would I see more if I spent more time on the Autobahn? For Tesla to succeed as I think they can, they have to have sales in the largest economies, not just the US. To me that would include Germany as the economic powerhouse of the EU. I'm looking for some information that there isn't a bias against EVs and specifically Tesla in Germany. I saw a few Nissans but no Leafs. Getting some data points on where Teslas are being seen helps me feel better.
Regional batching & EU. Norway & NL for example in April YTD were absolutely fantastic. If Tesla only makes xxxxx S/X's every quarter they can't deliver +50% in every specific market.
Go check the EU thread and let's see the 2017 (1.023 Q1 - 3.331 total year) vs 2016 (397 Q1 - 1.908 total year) data for Germany
edit: NL instead of UK
edit: data 2017 & 2016
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I haven't lived in Germany, but I think there can be some growing social/political pressure not to buy Tesla there. And I expect it only to get worse with time, as VW/Daimler/... you name it, start losing money like crazy. Which can make it more difficult to insure a Tesla there or more difficult to sell your car there. It's only speculative, not based on hard evidence, but a potential scenario based on human/political behaviour.
jelloslug
Active Member
Cadillac calls it a feature in their commercials. MB had to cancel an ad campaign because they called their lane keep assist package "self driving".
I have a number of colleagues with a Model 3 reservation and another looking at a Model S. Tesla will see pockets of resistance, but it will continue to grow as long as the German automakers drag their feet.
Last year, MBs HQS had a Model X parked in front for the longest time and the Stuttgarter Technology Park parking lot has an ever increasing number of Tesla. The growth is slow currently, but once Model 3 deliveries start in Europe you will likely see growth accelerate.
You could also drop the max speed an autopilot engaged vehicle can travel for a period of time based on the number of violations- That should have the effect of causing people to change their habits rather quickly once you can only travel 5-10kms below the speed limit.
I go to Cologne a couple of times a year and usually see a couple in the old town and not too far from the HBF (assuming you mean train station here). Although i readily agree that the frequency is much lower than what I see in London.
Krugerrand
Meow
People keep saying this: Tesla has to do something. Why suddenly is it Tesla’s problem that people drive distracted? It’s been going on for decades, having gotten particularly worse because of cellphones. Why doesn’t Apple or Android et al... do something about it? Why don’t fast food joints do something about people eating while driving? Why don’t those in charge of highway traffic laws do something about it?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Dont be so myopic folks. Distracted driving is a serious issue for AP cars and non AP cars. The difference is that AP can save the distracted driver 99 out of 100 times. It's true that it can invite people to be a bit more lax and less diligent, but it that is not the fault of AP, that is the responsibility of the driver the same as its the responsibility for the driver who is distracted using Cruise control or not using anything. The fact is that every single time a Tesla has a fender bender, its headline news. It does not matter that they catch fire 64x less then gas cars. I dont have the stats on distracted driving but in general Tesla's are safer cars and getting more safe as the years go by. A FUDster on twitter recently posted a spreadsheet of every single death that happened anywhere near a Tesla, not kidding, they included pedestrians and cyclists and passengers of the cars that were hit. This is fair and it is how some of these stats are kept. The FUDster was so consumed by his passion for tracking the deaths that he failed to realize that the percentage of deaths per car on the road actually went down year over year over year. Essentially the data showed that over the last 5-6 years, the average number of deaths was something like 5 per year and was fairly consistent with 3 in year one, 4 in year 2 and leveling off at around 6 the rest of the years. Even though the number of Teslas on the road was doubling every year or two. From 20,000 to 50,000 to 100,000 to 200,000 and so on.
My point is that data is a tricky thing. Currently every single Tesla fender bender is national news as is every single injury at a Tesla factory. It will not be this way for ever. For one, the media will be mocked endless for not doing their home work to discover what is extremely easy to discover. Journalists are supposed to do this homework before publishing an article. Its the job of the editor to ask the question about how any piece of news about a specific relates to the industry as a whole. Up to today, it has been easy to use Tesla as a punching bag, but over time, it will not be news every time a Tesla hits another car or a median. The clicks for such material will go down and the editors will start to ask tougher question of their reporters.
My point is that data is a tricky thing. Currently every single Tesla fender bender is national news as is every single injury at a Tesla factory. It will not be this way for ever. For one, the media will be mocked endless for not doing their home work to discover what is extremely easy to discover. Journalists are supposed to do this homework before publishing an article. Its the job of the editor to ask the question about how any piece of news about a specific relates to the industry as a whole. Up to today, it has been easy to use Tesla as a punching bag, but over time, it will not be news every time a Tesla hits another car or a median. The clicks for such material will go down and the editors will start to ask tougher question of their reporters.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Because they are getting all of the negative press. Simple as that. If government regulators decide autopilot is unsafe and shut it down it's going to drastically impact Tesla.
In 2017, Tesla sales were up 75% Y/Y in Germany, where the Model S sales approached those of the Porsche Panamera, and also up ~75% Y/Y in Europe as a whole.
Teslas Are Finally Replacing Porsches on the Autobahn
Tesla Europe Registration Stats
Sales also doubled in China in 2017 after tripling in 2016.
The absolute numbers for S/X are still small in both Europe and China (outside of a few places like Norway) so lots of room for growth, if Tesla ever decides to increase S/X production. Smaller, less expensive cars like the 3 and Y should do very well, although Germany may lag a bit due to the homegrown auto industry -- we'll see.
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Regulators are not immune from press coverage but should be driven by data. If Autopilot saves lives, are they really going to choose to kill people by shutting it down?
Guys, does any of you know or have estimated what is the distribution of trigger points of the buy-to-cover for short sellers at the moment? I think that from $350-$400 it can get really hot for them, but I don't really know exactly at which points the broker/dealers will make the call with a higher probability.
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