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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'm a bit surprised at the fairly muted response to the OTA adaptations to M3 breaking issue. Maybe I have a short memory, but I think this is the first time we've had front-page issue that was resolved in such a way. Imagine if this was another manufacturer, I'm not even sure they'd have the wherewithal to realise it was a software issue, but would like be changing the physical brakes in a full recall.

It's seriously game-changing.
Right now, the ad-supported media wants blood. Happy endings aren't trendy right now.
Sooo... any new Aupilot crash to report? A @elonmusk drama story to dig in? No? OK, we'll wait then!
 
I'm a bit surprised at the fairly muted response to the OTA adaptations to M3 breaking issue. Maybe I have a short memory, but I think this is the first time we've had front-page issue that was resolved in such a way. Imagine if this was another manufacturer, I'm not even sure they'd have the wherewithal to realise it was a software issue, but would like be changing the physical brakes in a full recall.

It's seriously game-changing.

I wouldn’t put it past Elon to have set this whole thing up from the beginning knowning that OTA is one of his strongest moats. Hi Warren ;)
 
From what I gather from yesterday's responses, it's mostly low volume.
Nope. Lowered *volatility*. Look it up.

As an aside: May you never deal with options with low volume. I have some (covered calls) where volume (aka liquidity) dried up. The spread blew out, with the bid at 1 cent and the ask at $1.50. Since I'm on the correct side of time decay, I can wait them out, but yuck.
 
Because they are getting all of the negative press. Simple as that. If government regulators decide autopilot is unsafe and shut it down it's going to drastically impact Tesla.

Agreed that would be catastrophic. I very much doubt regulators will do so because of opposition from all of the industry. If Tesla is singled out and even though I am not a lawyer, I could foresee an appeal based upon bill of attainder grounds.
 
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Nope. Lowered *volatility*. Look it up.

As an aside: May you never deal with options with low volume. I have some (covered calls) where volume (aka liquidity) dried up. The spread blew out, with the bid at 1 cent and the ask at $1.50.


Tesla will always have peaks of high volatility over the next few years.

Question: How would a short squeeze impact option prices, ignoring Delta. Would be good to see VW's historic option prices when they had their squeeze.
 
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A lot of interesting ideas here. Do we have any data on legal punishment(s) for collisions due to inattention to traditional cruise control function? That used to scare me on my first car with it.

Well a good spanking, at the very least... But seriously, I took a look and generally it seems to be a relative misdemeanour.

However, having dwelt, cogitated and gestated on the matter, I think the law should be clarified - until we have level 5 autonomy, a driver is 100% liable regardless of any driver aids. This strikes me as the most reasonable and logical stance.
 
Got a grievance? Social media propagandists are standing by to help you direct your grievance where it belongs, Elon Musk.
Yes, until recently most people did not understand that everything that sucks in life can be traced back to one man, Elon Musk.
But now with advances in cyber social warfare we can harvest everything that pisses you off and target it directly at Elon Musk.
Pissed off yet? You should be because it is all the fault of this guy, Elon Musk. What are you waiting for?
Go to social media of your choice and vent. We'll make sure your emotional excrement hits the mark, Elon Musk.
Everybody's doing it. Why not you? Be a part of the many taking shots at Elon Musk.

What are you, some kind of muskrat?
 
Tesla will always have peaks of high volatility over the next few years.

Question: How would a short squeeze impact option prices, ignoring Delta. Would be good to see VW's historic option prices when they had their squeeze.
That's a very interesting question! Implied volatility should shoot through the roof, raising all option prices. Market makers would stop wanting to open positions until things settled down, reducing volume and blowing out the spread. They would also be desperately trying to close and hedge their exposed positions, which would have a more subtle and nonobvious effect. Where they've written puts, they're gaining, but where they've written uncovered calls they're in huge trouble, so they'd probably be buying calls or stock, exaggerating the short squeeze. For me as a writer of puts, I just need to make sure the price increase due to the jump in volatility doesn't exceed the price decrease due to the change in stock price by so much that I get margin called; this should be easy as far-from-the-money options generally have pretty low value.
 
Actually, the Jan 2020 $600 calls are kind of expensive.[/QUOTE

How much will they cost if Tesla is at $1000 i
That's a very interesting question! Implied volatility should shoot through the roof, raising all option prices. Market makers would stop wanting to open positions until things settled down, reducing volume and blowing out the spread. They would also be desperately trying to close and hedge their exposed positions, which would have a more subtle and nonobvious effect. Where they've written puts, they're gaining, but where they've written uncovered calls they're in huge trouble, so they'd probably be buying calls or stock, exaggerating the short squeeze. For me as a writer of puts, I just need to make sure the price increase due to the jump in volatility doesn't exceed the price decrease due to the change in stock price by so much that I get margin called; this should be easy as far-from-the-money options generally have pretty low value.

Agreed, if you had some long LEAP calls that exploded in a short squeeze it might take a while to unwind, depends on the number of contracts you are trying to sell. But then you would also have the Time premium to offset the spread.
 
Agreed that would be catastrophic. I very much doubt regulators will do so because of opposition from all of the industry. If Tesla is singled out and even though I am not a lawyer, I could foresee an appeal based upon bill of attainder grounds.
Yes, difficult to imagine that kind of regulatory action. More likely they will just require a name change.
 
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1 year ago, TSLA was the same level of today, around $300. 1 month later, TSLA was at ATH, 380+, due to the expected delivery of the first few Model 3 cars. Reaching 5000 cars/week seems much more material to the stock price to me, so I wonder where we’re going to be in a month.
I suspect not a lot of movement until we see the Q2 delivery updates.
 
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My my, 5K production in the 2nd qtr, actual profits in the 3rd and 4th, more superchargers and destination chargers, all this great stuff that will probably happen in the second half of this year, hopefully bringing the SP over $400, makes me wonder how many "accidents" caused by AP and battery fires will start occurring once positive news starts becoming the norm. Not that any of these are falsified or concocted, nudge nudge wink wink...

I just hope it gets called out when it is discovered and Tesla is not accused of being heartless by reporting what the black boxes show what actually happened.

On another note, I was shocked and pleasantly surprised to see the number of destination chargers installed in my community here in Eastern WA. We had an 8 bay, including 120Kwh, Supercharger station put in about 2 years ago, but I had no idea about the DC's (mainly at hotels and wineries). Great job Tesla!
 
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1 year ago, TSLA was the same level of today, around $300. 1 month later, TSLA was at ATH, 380+, due to the expected delivery of the first few Model 3 cars. Reaching 5000 cars/week seems much more material to the stock price to me, so I wonder where we’re going to be in a month.

I agree with the sentiment, BUT be careful. A year ago Tesla's balance sheet was much stronger. A year ago, Tesla could ride out a moderate sized hiccup (like, say, Model 3 production line snaffus). Now, if we were to get another moderate sized hiccup, Tesla might have to raise cash when it doesn't want to and can least afford it. For this reason, I don't think another month and 5,000 weekly Model 3s will do it. I think Tesla needs to bank up some cash before the lid is truly raised on the share price.
 
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