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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Yes, difficult to imagine that kind of regulatory action. More likely they will just require a name change.

Sure, promptly followed by the equivalent name change in the flight industry.
Since the Tesla feature is aptly named after the airline industry autopilot which comes with the exact same caveats (pilot still responsible, need to pay attention and take over any moment it is necessary).
 
Thank you for this. Have much to learn about options but I gather call options are most expensive when purchased at the bottom. Here I am thinking that purchasing calls at the bottom, delta alone can compensate for the change in option price when sP goes up but that is not so if you take in the volatility as well.

Also, all else being equal, it looks like Puts (long or short depending on up/down trend) seem to have favorable pricing (+/+) than calls.
 
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To be fair, wildfires ARE bad in California.
To be equally fair, weed burners are for sale in hardware stores throughout the state.
T_WithoutZoom
 
Here is some more info about implied volatility and options mostly taken from:
Option Volatility: Strategies and Volatility

Vega is a risk measure of the sensitivity of an option price to changes in volatility. It is somewhat akin to Delta, which measures the sensitivity of an option to changes in the underlying price. An option’s vega value is the rate of change of an option’s price given a 1% change in implied volatility (IV).

The higher the price, the larger the vega will be. The vega for an option with more days to expiration (DTE) is greater than the option at the same strike price with fewer days to expiration. Thus, as you go farther out in time, the Vega values can get increasingly large, eventually posing a significant risk or reward should volatility change. As an example, if you buy a LEAPS call option on a stock that was bottoming out, and then the desired price rebound takes place, the volatility levels will usually decline sharply, and along with it the option premium will decline as well.

If buying call options on a stock that has rapidly declined, it is wise to buy calls with lower vega. I have found that ITM/ATM calls expiring about 2 months out tend to work best for me at maximizing delta (sensitivity to stock price change) while minimizing vega (sensitivity to IV) on dips. Those have been my best performers on TSLA dips. They have reasonable time decay so you can hold them for a few weeks for the reversal without losing a lot of value. That's not true of calls expiring in just a few weeks.

Take this last dip. I bought several different calls on 5/15, when the stock was around $283. Here's a list of what I bought and where they are now after a rise of about $8 (2.8%) in the stock price:

JUN15 $280 (ATM)
Cost: $16.50
Now: $16.70

JUN15 $320 (OTM)
Cost: $2.80
Now: $1.51

JUL20 $280 (ATM)
Cost: $22.80
Now: $24.75

SEP21 $300 (OTM)
Cost: $23.30
Now: $24.60

J19 $300 (OTM)
Cost: $37.20
Now: $36.90

J20 $400 (OTM)
Cost: $33.50
Now: $33.50

J20 $450 OTM)
Cost: $24.20
Now: $23.75

The worst of these at this point is the very short dated OTM JUN15 $320. Being OTM, Delta is lower, so it did not rise like my ITM JUN15 $280 with the modest rise in stock price. Those would be good for a more dramatic rise in the stock, which we did not get. In hindsight, it was too far OTM and I should not have even bought it. I was buying $320s the week before, so I did it without thinking enough and it cost me. The June $280 has not gone up much because of time decay. Time decay is significant with the June calls at this point, so those are not good to hold very long. Had the stock reversed quickly, those would have done well. The best performer of all of these is the JUL20 $280, which is up nicely. Delta is high and time decay is not too bad yet, so you can hold them for a few weeks without a big loss in value. That's not true with the June calls. The LEAPs are either slightly red or neutral with their higher vega. I tend to do a percentage ratio between the different options to capture the different potential stock movements. Some will do better than others depending upon how the stock recovers. This recovery so far has not been a great one for call options.

Had TSLA reversed sharply, as it commonly does, the LEAPs would have been fine and the shorter dated options would have gone way up. Since the stock consolidated for a couple of weeks, the LEAPs took it pretty hard due to their sensitivity to the drop in implied volatility.
 
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I agree with the sentiment, BUT be careful. A year ago Tesla's balance sheet was much stronger. A year ago, Tesla could ride out a moderate sized hiccup (like, say, Model 3 production line snaffus). Now, if we were to get another moderate sized hiccup, Tesla might have to raise cash when it doesn't want to and can least afford it. For this reason, I don't think another month and 5,000 weekly Model 3s will do it. I think Tesla needs to bank up some cash before the lid is truly raised on the share price.
I also think we should be prepared for a longer wait before price liftoff. For true liftoff, I don’t think success of the Model 3 programme will be enough (success defined as ramp complete, positive net income and free cashflow). There probably needs to be a clear and credible path towards a million+ cars per year. As Cosmacelf indicates, Mr Market may want to see an accumulated cash pile before getting too excited about the next phase of growth. Hopefully I’m wrong but I’m sticking to straight forward share purchases in case I’m not.
 
Thank you for this. Have much to learn about options but I gather call options are most expensive when purchased at the bottom. Here I am thinking that purchasing calls at the bottom, delta alone can compensate for the change in option price when sP goes up but that is not so if you take in the volatility as well.

Also, all else being equal, it looks like Puts (long or short depending on up/down trend) seem to have favorable pricing (+/+) than calls.

In general, I prefer bullish Call spread instead of pure Calls. There is one exception, if I expect imminent huge rally (like a big squeeze), then I don't do spread. I take a directional bet without caping my gains.
 
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Well, to be fair, people are demanding that others do something about distracted driving. There’s been lawsuits aganst cellphone software manufacturers like Apple, Apple now has an optional “do not disturb while driving” feature, individual states (and presumably some countries) are adding laws to make it easier to fine distracted driving and/or cellphone use while driving (like in California).

That said, I don’t really understand why Tesla allows such apparently long periods of hands off autopilot use (at least at high speeds) when autopilot is by definition not a fully autonomous driving feature (yet).

One concern I have is that I always have my hands on the wheel of our M3 but I get frequent warnings "to keep my hands on the wheel". Is Tesla documenting properly. Because of the superb steering only a slight touch is required in normal driving and I leave my hands in the same position when on AP. I would not like to be accused of lack of attention if information is improperly reported.
 
Interesting take on projected numbers for Tesla going out to 2024. Gali is pretty high on what he sees down the road for the company. We'll see what plays out. What I am interested in however is what the stock will do in the short term...say the next 3-6 months. Gonna be a wild ride.

Dan


So Ir the g
Sure, promptly followed by the equivalent name change in the flight industry.
Since the Tesla feature is aptly named after the airline industry autopilot which comes with the exact same caveats (pilot still responsible, need to pay attention and take over any moment it is necessary).

Haven’t flown an AP yet that I would take my hands off of. In particular during any maneuvering within 10000ft of the ground. 34 years and 18000 hours speaking here. Autopilot is there to enhance safety, flown correctly, Tesla AP is an incredible enhancement to safe driving in that when one uses it “underneath” ones own driving redundancy and safety increases decisively.

Fire,Away!
 
So Ir the g


Haven’t flown an AP yet that I would take my hands off of. In particular during any maneuvering within 10000ft of the ground. 34 years and 18000 hours speaking here. Autopilot is there to enhance safety, flown correctly, Tesla AP is an incredible enhancement to safe driving in that when one uses it “underneath” ones own driving redundancy and safety increases decisively.

The vast majority of flying on AP is done hands off. With 30 years and 20,000 hours I would guess in the last 15 years ( since I have been in FMS AP aircraft) I have my hands on the controls less than 10% of the time.

Fire,Away!
 
The vast majority of flying on AP is done hands off. With 30 years and 20,000 hours I would guess in the last 15 years ( since I have been in FMS AP aircraft) I have my hands on the controls less than 10% of the time.
I’m guessing Tesla’s stance on hands on the wheel is for the ones that tends to have phones to the face or dozing off. I doubt it’s has much actual safety difference. In that case Tesla should also add foot over the brake. Bottom line: be ready to take over at anytime.
 
I’m guessing Tesla’s stance on hands on the wheel is for the ones that tends to have phones to the face or dozing off. I doubt it’s has much actual safety difference. In that case Tesla should also add foot over the brake. Bottom line: be ready to take over at anytime.
I concur...be ready. My comment was directed to the gentleman who said he always has hands on AP while flying.
 
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