TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Causalien]

I felt the same way. I guess being on here does give you better, more advanced info than the "average bear" as they say!

The inevitable rise has been telegraphed by many forum members on here since $247/2months ago. But with anything stock related, even if the information is there, you still have only a 50% chance in getting it right as you need to determine if the information is correct or not.

 

[CaliBear1]

This morning I was at Utah Beach watching this year's official D-Day ceremonies. Afterward I thanked several remarkable D-Day veterans who made the journey to Normandy. They are now in their mid-90s! Right after that I also bought hot chocolates for four young American paratroopers who piled into the small brasserie near the Museum/Visitor Center with me to escape the bitter cold after they hard stood at attention for the better part of an hour. So, it was already a fantastic day when I finally had the chance to check the market around 5 p.m. French time. Mon Dieu! D-Day indeed! The beachhead is secure and the breakout is underway!

 

[jhm]

Yes, price/kwh

I have various maturities of puts incl. 1/19 (which is the shortest).

I think the demand issue will become obvious earlier than the profitability. But that requires a bit more detailed explanation than I can do today - maybe over the weekend.

Let's bound this a bit and look past the current backlog of reservation. At some point you do start to ask whether can Tesla sustain 500k Model 3 deliveries per year. Years ago bears asked the same whether Tesla could sustain 20k Model S orders per year. It and Model X have gone on to hit 100k per year which seems sustainable apart from potential cannibalism. Even so given Model S/X at 100k and the Model 3 at half the cost, I'd venture that at least 250k Model 3 per year is a pretty safe bet. If 500k proves too much, I suspect Tesla will simply accelerate Model Y development. Models Y and 3 combined seem a pretty safe bet for at least 500k per year. So either path 3 alone or 3+Y I think getting to 500k by 2020 looks pretty solid. Even if we saw 500k Model 3 in 2019, fall to 250k (excluding Model Y) in 2020, I would not see that as a huge problem even though the 500k proved unsustainable. So again I'm not seeing any sort of near term crisis of confidence for shareholders on this.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Let's bound this a bit and look past the current backlog of reservation. At some point you do start to ask whether can Tesla sustain 500k Model 3 deliveries per year. Years ago bears asked the same whether Tesla could sustain 20k Model S orders per year. It and Model X have gone on to hit 100k per year which seems sustainable apart from potential cannibalism. Even so given Model S/X at 100k and the Model 3 at half the cost, I'd venture that at least 250k Model 3 per year is a pretty safe bet. If 500k proves too much, I suspect Tesla will simply accelerate Model Y development. Models Y and 3 combined seem a pretty safe bet for at least 500k per year. So either path 3 alone or 3+Y I think getting to 500k by 2020 looks pretty solid. Even if we saw 500k Model 3 in 2019, fall to 250k (excluding Model Y) in 2020, I would not see that as a huge problem even though the 500k proved unsustainable. So again I'm not seeing any sort of near term crisis of confidence for shareholders on this.

IMHO once production is obtainable, annual sales of 500k M3 and 750k MY are sustainable for many years to come. I'll check back here in five and ten years to see how correct my opinion was.

 

[HG Wells]

Yes, price/kwh

I have various maturities of puts incl. 1/19 (which is the shortest).

I think the demand issue will become obvious earlier than the profitability. But that requires a bit more detailed explanation than I can do today - maybe over the weekend.

I hate to say it, but CuriousSunbird could be right about demand. At least in the US there is a significant shift from sedans to SUV's.

Where CuriousSunbird is wrong is that it won't affect Tesla.Tesla is currently developing the model Y which is an SUV. We expected it to use a significant number of parts that are common with the model three. I expect that they will be able to switch a production line over from model three to model Y very quickly at any point in time. It's possible that they may be able to run model threes and model Y's down the same line. That's why if demand in the US (not the rest of the world) slows for the model three it will easily EASILY, be replaced by the demand for the model Y. Overall demand for Tesla products will not shrink and will not slow for several years.

 

[MilosK]

I felt the same way. I guess being on here does give you better, more advanced info than the "average bear" as they say!

I think the biggest risk with trading on the info we get from TMC is that we receive it and analyze it so early that we think the market has already accounted for the news and dismissed it, when it’s really still being digested or awaiting further confirmation.

I wasn't even getting my news here lately, but from Google search for tesla news, esp. electrek.co which shows up near the top and is quoted quite widely (I thought).

Anyway, tomorrow I've got FOMO vs stochastics saying sell - which seems to have been an amazing predictor lately

 

[Words of HABIT]

Update: Today's SP of $302 to reach ATH $386 linear approach by end of June is an increase of $2.27/trading day. Doable.

FWIW another update: Today's SP of $319.50 to reach ATH $386 linear approach by end of June is an increase of $3.91/trading day. Still doable. Slow and steady or not, I'll take it any way it comes.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I hate to say it, but CuriousSunbird could be right about demand. At least in the US there is a significant shift from sedans to SUV's.

Where CuriousSunbird is wrong is that it won't affect Tesla.Tesla is currently developing the model Y which is an SUV. We expected it to use a significant number of parts that are common with the model three. I expect that they will be able to switch a production line over from model three to model Y very quickly at any point in time. It's possible that they may be able to run model threes and model Y's down the same line. That's why if demand in the US (not the rest of the world) slows for the model three it will easily EASILY, be replaced by the demand for the model Y. Overall demand for Tesla products will not shrink and will not slow for several years.

My take is M3 will be made exclusively in US, while the MY will be made exclusively in China. Only time will tell.

 

[jelloslug]

FWIW another update: Today's SP of $319.50 to reach ATH $386 linear approach by end of June is an increase of $3.91/trading day. Still doable. Slow and steady or not, I'll take it any way it comes.

I would much prefer to see a nice slow and steady march. I would not complain if the steps were $10 at a time though...

 

[mongo]

My take is M3 will be made exclusively in US, while the MY will be made exclusively in China. Only time will tell.

Elon said they want to stay on the same continent. I think China will make 3s and Ys, as will Europe and US GFs.

 

[wipster]

I would much prefer to see a nice slow and steady march. I would not complain if the steps were $10 at a time though...

And after production was announced, it went up to well over 400!

 

[DragonWatch]

Did someone say oops? Short sellers betting against Tesla lose more than $1 billion in single day as stock pops

 

[neroden]

"Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US order"

Still wondering how this is possible with 450,000 reservations waiting...

Probably slightly over half are non-US, and slightly over half are short-range, so US long-range is 1/4 * 450,000 = 112500, only a bit less. At 5000/week that's about 5 months, but a bit less. If we assume that 40% of orders are non-US and 40% are waiting for short range, we get about three months.

Can't you do basic arithmetic?

 

[neroden]

Some above we talked about the voting buttons. I think the "like" button is redundant and should be replaced with "agree" to match the "disagree", the "love" button serves the function of "like". "Informative" and "helpful" are also rather similar, maybe replace one with "FUD"

I personally want a "dislike" button and an "unhelpful" button but it would probably be a bad idea.

 

[neroden]

Judge orders EPA to disclose any science backing up Pruitt’s climate claims

I think I'm gonna have a good day.

Edit: Sorry, wrong thread.

Heh. It's a FOIA case! Pruitt could comply by simply saying. "No, we have no documents backing up my claims." We've had right-wingers make that argument before, claiming divine revelation as their only source to back up their claims. And that would actually work in this case. But Pruitt has no guts and is unwilling to stand behind his beliefs.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

My take is M3 will be made exclusively in US, while the MY will be made exclusively in China. Only time will tell.

The only vehicles I expect to be built in one location would be the "low volume" vehicles (S, X, perhaps 2020 Roadster and semi), while anything high volume (3, Y, Truck...) will be built in probably at least 3 locations if not more (at least one GF in US/Europe/China, possibly multiples per)

If you consider that there are not likely 12 unique vehicles to produce and there's roughly a dozen GF expected long term, they must produce at least some in multiple locations. S,X,3,Y,Roadster,Semi,Truck only gets you to 6, and even if you add some smaller cars below 3/Y that's at best two more vehicles. While every GF may not produce every high volume product, every GF starting with GF3 (Shanghai) should be expected to produce multiple high volume products.

I expect Shanghai will build 3, storage products, and eventually Y. I'm not sure if there's a large market for Truck in Asia, that may be a product only built in North America (since it will be low volume anywhere else). If they build smaller vehicles than 3/Y some day, then there's a market in at least some of Asia for that, I could see them built there too - but they might just build them at yet another GF someplace in Asia region.

I'd expect Truck to be built in at least 2 locations in North America, but only in North America (the low volume demand overseas can be simply shipped there like S/X). 3 and Y and anything smaller at 2-3 locations per region (NA/Europe/Asia), with likely such locations building all of the high volume products at each location.

 

[neroden]

What I meant to say 7 hours ago was that the floor is reset to $298-300. jk I’m glad to be wrong and happy to see $300 return premarket. Could this be the signal to set a slow squeeze in motion?



24 days sounds about right, but what happens if VIN tracker spikes before quarter ends? FOMO on the squeeze of the century yet anyone? I’m not trying to plant a seed or anything

I've been trying to rush through a small gift of stock to a friend before the value of the stock exceeds the annual gift limit... because who knows, this week *might* be the point when the stock rockets upward.

 

[neroden]

It will once the holistic product becomes more rounded. As Model sales ramp, Tesla is certainly going to push a lean all-in-one product with EV/solar/storage. Once they do, the level of interest will skyrocket.

I also see the Powerwall price being halved relatively quickly. If true pack costs can approach $100/kWh, why won't retail for a Powerwall quickly be $250/kwh in a leaner more scaled environment? I mean.....it's just a bigass battery.

Musk pointed out that Tesla is producing much higher battery volumes than its competitors. This is true in the stationary storage world too, as I've read from multiple third-party analyses. Tesla has also got the greatest brand cachet in the sector. With the entire sector production-limited, with unmeetable demand, this gives Tesla a great deal of pricing power. While prices may go down, I expect a lot of the cuts in costs and economies of scales will go directly to us, the stockholders.

 

[MikeC]

Ihor Dusaniwsky's short report:

https://s3partners.net/Research/TSLA14.php

 

[neroden]

I'm pretty sure that Elon said large installations sell for $250/kWh for the batteries. (Add installation/inverters/etc.)

Yeah, seems like the inverters etc. nearly double the costs. (Australia probably had express shipping costs too.) I wonder how much Tesla can cut inverter costs? It is one of their areas of expertise now.