TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Singer3000]

'Impossible-to-cheat' emissions tests show almost all new diesels still dirty

Something for Sunbird to consider on demand... Tesla’s product suite is on the right side of history. Incentives for electric are blurring together with discentives for diesel (and gasoline) in more markets. First through tax subsidies for electric but increasingly with quotas and drop dead dates for ICE. If your hope is that a recession will show Tesla wearing no clothes? Well I would not be surprised to see multiple governments applying further fiscal stimulus towards this sector during a downturn (e.g. UK scrappage scheme in 2009).

One thing not commented on too much from the call was the timeline of approx 5 years for a compact Tesla (presumably when battery costs get low enough and the cream from the upper end of the market has been skimmed). When there’s no room for more growth in a sub-segment, the technology trend is such that there will always be new market territory to invade for the foreseeable future.

This is why the demand thesis puzzles me so much. The market for Tesla’s products may as well be infinite for the next 10-15 years, given their innovation rate and the likely unstoppable pivot away from ICE towards electric. And in 15 years or so, when growth in the surface transport segment might level off, the technology trend is such that we very well may be talking about the likes of aviation and shipping as being ripe for disruption.

 

[neroden]

I always appreciate your posts and what may be loved by me is probably old hat to you. But this is one of most densely packed posts in terms of logic and information I've read without jargon or needed elaboration. A clincher argument for TSLA longs.

You must be really good at your day job, too. Thanks.

JHM is the TMC member I would most like to meet at this point. Whatever bank employs him has a treasure, and probably doesn't realize how much money they could make by letting him run their entire business

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I think the demand issue will become obvious earlier than the profitability. But that requires a bit more detailed explanation than I can do today - maybe over the weekend.

Anything is possible, but this one isn’t likely. The BMW 3 series still sells 400k annually, even with the market shift away from sedans. Tesla has better owner satisfaction (per CR: Tesla 90, BMW 72), similar price range (Tesla 35-78k, BMW 36-80k+), better acceleration, lower running costs, better resale value, and better environmental credibility.

The idea that there will be a demand problem seems borderline delusional. And, as an investor, if Tesla had any reason to fear a demand issue, they can design Model Y to be built on the Model 3 line. I don’t think they will because the demand is so obvious, but if there were a demand problem, the solution is easy and obvious.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It will once the holistic product becomes more rounded. As Model sales ramp, Tesla is certainly going to push a lean all-in-one product with EV/solar/storage. Once they do, the level of interest will skyrocket.

I also see the Powerwall price being halved relatively quickly. If true pack costs can approach $100/kWh, why won't retail for a Powerwall quickly be $250/kwh in a leaner more scaled environment? I mean.....it's just a bigass battery.

Tesla just raised its Powerwall pricing, so I don't see it "being halved relatively quickly."

I'm hoping for a v3 by 2020 to improve the manufacturability of the product so that it can ramp relatively quickly.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I must have missed it, but I thought you were written off totally. Glad to hear your weren't. How's Ann Bolyn? (Forgive spelling mistakes, if any.)

Anne Boleyn is doing well. thanks for asking Professor. good to hear from you. how's your family? I hope all is well with your health.
best wishes

 

[JRP3]

Anne Boleyn is doing well. thanks for asking Professor. good to hear from you. how's your family? I hope all is well with your health.
best wishes

Didn't you just throw a tantrum and quit this site, for good, for the umpteenth time?

 

[MP3Mike]

Ihor Dusaniwsky's short report:

https://s3partners.net/Research/TSLA14.php

I'm surprised that he got the model 3 production rate number wrong. He said they just announced that they got to 300/day when they said 500/day.

 

[EinSV]

Hey guys, @ggr set up a special thread to talk about veganism, leather, etc.

Here you go: Veganism/Leather etc. out of Market Action

 

[EinSV]

I'm surprised that he got the model 3 production rate number wrong. He said they just announced that they got to 300/day when they said 500/day.

His reports usually seem reliable but the math also doesn't work on his valuation of short interest -- his estimate of 37.7 million shares short at $319.50 is $12 billion not $11 billion. Maybe he used yesterday's share price otherwise I can't explain it.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm surprised that he got the model 3 production rate number wrong. He said they just announced that they got to 300/day when they said 500/day.

I was going to say the same thing.

 

[sundaymorning]

Just some speculation on price movements for June:

For a first time in awhile, today reminded me of 2013 when the stock broke out of its $40 resistance, right when Elon tweeted “cash flow positive” on April 1st. For the next several weeks/months the stock was on a tear, gaining $2-5/day, with a few minor pullbacks in between, all the way past $100-120.

The reason today reminded me of 2013 was because TSLA went up strong, and did not pull back at the end of the day. Instead, it settled at $318 after peaking at $322, AH it popped back up to $319, which indicates we are in a position of strength, possibly retesting new tops until the 5k/ week number is announced. If tomorrow ends up closing above $320, I think we are headed higher the next couple weeks. For buyers who are sidelined, FOMO has to be setting in after today’s price action. I think longs are in a good position to capitalize as there are too many good news waiting to be announced at the right time. Seeing the price action today gives me confidence that Elon may JUST be right, a squeeze seems very likely.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Ihor Dusaniwsky's short report:

https://s3partners.net/Research/TSLA14.php

I was just thinking that Ihor here has such an interesting job. His job is to follow who is betting against companies every day and report on it.

 

[bdy0627]

Didn't you just throw a tantrum and quit this site, for good, for the umpteenth time?

Ok, that is funny, but don't be so hard on the guy. He's a huge Tesla enthusiast and IMO belongs on here. So he gets frustrated from time to time and vents. You really should know better than to take him too seriously. There are enough people who respond to his ultra-optimistic posts advising caution that I think newbies should get a balanced perspective. That's coming from a newbie a few years ago who added way too much leverage at the wrong time and paid the price. At that time, we didn't have so many others chiming in about being cautious. Now we do, so I think newbies should be fine.

 

[jhm]

JHM is the TMC member I would most like to meet at this point. Whatever bank employs him has a treasure, and probably doesn't realize how much money they could make by letting him run their entire business

Ugh, I would be a lousy manager. I'm much happier just doing my data analysis and building models. I'd love to meet you some time though.

 

[defc0n]

I was just thinking that Ihor here has such an interesting job. His job is to follow who is betting against companies every day and report on it.

Place your bets...

 

[JRP3]

Ok, that is funny, but don't be so hard on the guy. He's a huge Tesla enthusiast and IMO belongs on here.

Serious question, how many times do you need to see him throw a childish tantrum swearing never to come back before you realize he has some major issues?

 

[jhm]

IMHO once production is obtainable, annual sales of 500k M3 and 750k MY are sustainable for many years to come. I'll check back here in five and ten years to see how correct my opinion was.

Oh, yes, I think the combined demand for Modes 3 & Y will likely be about 1 million. My aim with the above post was simply to work through a scenario where only half that expectation is realized. It's always good to stress test our expectations and see if it would make a fundamental difference in our investments. For me, if M3/Y came in at just 500k, I'd still have confidence in the long term for Tesla and still would want to have a substantial long position. Basically Tesla still has a ton of options even if the Model 3 does not happen to outsell the Honda Accord (sold 506k in 2017).

I'd love to see the Semi and Tesla pickup truck come more quickly to market, and of course the new Roadster will be an awesome halo car. I think pushing out more new models is really important for advancing uptake of EVs. It's not essential for any one EV model to be a top 25 world best seller. What is important is that there are compelling EV models for every segment, indeed for every vehicle buyer. Let's bring back the El Camino if we have to, the Electric Camino.

 

[dc_h]

I just listened a little more. Did he say "we will achieve a 5,000 week". Did he say anything about sustainable rate at a different stage in the meeting?

Yep, but not for long.

They won’t stop at 5000.

 

[Papafox]

Didn't you just throw a tantrum and quit this site, for good, for the umpteenth time?

Please be a bit more civil with TrendTrader007.His investment strategy and techniques differs from yours, but that's what makes this forum interesting. Feel free to disagree. Again, that's what makes a forum interesting. Thanks.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Please be a bit more civil with TrendTrader007.His investment strategy and techniques differs from yours, but that's what makes this forum interesting. Feel free to disagree. Again, that's what makes a forum interesting. Thanks.

I don't mind at all that TT007's strategy is what it is. What I object to is that most of what he posts is wrong. He's either lying or horribly mistaken almost all the time. The hissy fits where he says he's leaving are just another instance of lying, or maybe he can't even predict his own behavior. The "mystery of the zeroes" where he posts numbers but then says they aren't actually real numbers means many of his posts read like gibberish. So without somebody coming along behind explaining what he might really mean, what is his contribution?

I keep civil by rarely ever responding, but I'm glad somebody does.