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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Pictures and videos of the burning S are everywhere. Limited positive news.

Watch the video. See how the flames go out to the side? That’s by design. That’s why it takes 30 minutes for the passenger compartment to be involved. That’s why you have time to leave the vehicle by a factor of about 10x a gasomobile.
 
It's interesting that TSLA is up. But I'm going to attribute to short sellers trying to unwind their position. I'm still waiting for TSLA to dip back down and buy back in at a lower price before 3 weeks swing by. I sold not too far from the peak. Trying to hold on to my patience while TSLA is still going higher than when I sold ($355).
 
It's interesting that TSLA is up. But I'm going to attribute to short sellers trying to unwind their position. I'm still waiting for TSLA to dip back down and buy back in at a lower price before 3 weeks swing by. I sold not too far from the peak. Trying to hold on to my patience while TSLA is still going higher than when I sold ($355).

If we close above $360 it’ll be a bullish sign. If you wait too long after that you may be staring at trying to buy back in at a lower price of $370-380, then chasing the price upwards from there. The fact that shorts aren’t able to push us down despite the intense media attention on their side indicates strength, or do you not see it that way? But of course, we haven’t closed above $360 yet so you may be correct in your assumption.
 
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Watch the video. See how the flames go out to the side? That’s by design. That’s why it takes 30 minutes for the passenger compartment to be involved. That’s why you have time to leave the vehicle by a factor of about 10x a gasomobile.
Looked near the end of the video as if the flames were dying down on their own.
 
CNBC have talked about Tesla twice in the last hour. Both times they said the latest news was that there was a fire. Both times they elected to not cover Elon's tweet about shorts exploding.

I suppose slow-burning car fires that represent no threat to anyone are more important to CNBC than the CEO tweeting about stock-related issues. ><
 
<snip>

  • China GF announcement
All of these are already known/announced, but in the current environment are discounted heavily, especially by shorts.
China GF may be known, but we may also hear updates on China M3 reservations after their recent roadshow. It could take out the "M3 demand dropping" goal post that the shorts are planning to move to in 1H 2019.
 
1) it won't be due to a new Model S, which I do not think is on its way.

Agreed, they need to get out of Production Hell first.

But for several reasons, including the Freemont factory currently running out of space, I would expect a next generation of the Model S/X to use the 2170 cell and (some variant of) the M3 drivetrain + power electronics.

Apart from simplifying production and improving profit margins, this should also improve the Model S/X performance.

Eventually, I expect them to squeeze in a second motor in the back, for the next level performance version - and also to get rid of the 12V battery, since the top-level models really can't be technically inferior to the cheaper model (Y).
 
  • Informative
Reactions: madodel
A potential catalyst that has not been mentioned is a legacy car maker buying into the supercharger network. I doubt that it would be enough to trigger a squeeze but it could be an additional element in a series of items. It is also so obviously a good an relatively inexpensive move for any maker who is serious about moving into EVs in a strong way. It is incomprehensible to me that no one has done it.
 
China GF may be known, but we may also hear updates on China M3 reservations after their recent roadshow. It could take out the "M3 demand dropping" goal post that the shorts are planning to move to in 1H 2019.

I am not ruling out the possibility of some positive surprises but making the point that real world results making more credible what is already announced -- 5K/week production, ramping to 6K/week, China GF, and tangible progress toward sustained profitability and cash flow positive could be enough to punish shorts severely.

Especially since the whole short and distort game is basically a PR campaign to skew sentiment around the company so that the focus is only on the negative, while blinding investors to the positives. The effect of sentiment changing based on solid performance and bringing in new investors while shorts see their thesis look shakier and shakier has the potential to be extremely powerful. We have certainly seen a strong shift in sentiment over the past few weeks and continued positive news can cause that to continue to strengthen.

We saw something similar in 2013 when the share price got a significant boost in April when Elon announced Tesla was profitable in Q1 but did not really soar until the financials were published in May confirming it.

2013: Tesla soars to all-time high after CEO says company is now profitable – The Mercury News
Tesla stock jumps 31% after record $562M in sales and first-ever quarterly profit

I am not saying that this WILL happen, but that the potential is there just by results and credible information confirming what has already been announced, without the need for any surprises.
 
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There will not be anything we have not yet heard about, everything material has already been announced.

Problem is, even the greatest bulls cannot really accept the squeeze will happen, the profitability will come, the 6k/week will come.
So they search for something new, something that was not said, something hidden.

There was ZERO tesla-fanbois expecting 300k reservations of Model 3 on first months. Dwell on this tiny bit of trivia, it sheds all the light on our (in)ability to understand the world of Tesla.
Yet we are still light-years ahed of general populace. Shorts don't even count, no-one is as blind as the one who does not want to see.
It only depends on two factors:
- the depth of short pockets - they are DEEP
- the 'strength of longs' - will they sell at 1k, 5k, 10k?
I will not, yet I'm afraid a lot will happily sell at those prices and enable the shorting to continue.
 
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