TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jhm]

It's a good thing you don't know anything about Markov chains.

I actually work with Markov chains, but I can't tell what you are suggesting.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Nothing to worry about. Elon has taken the precaution of cloning himself several times over. These clones are hidden away in multiple and distinct undisclosed locations and are capable of stepping in at a moments notice. In fact, you know balding Elon? He's actually Elon 1.0. Elon 2.0 liked blondes, so I think we may actually be on Elon 3.0 at the present moment. Several of the clones are active on Twitter. They mostly share the same account, but there was a clone iteration loop that became fascinated ethereum. But don't worry about that because the Elon Management System has assured us that only high functioning Elons will be deployed as our Supreme Leader. Next up, Bored Elon.

And in case you doubt what I say, how do you explain that Elon has twin sons and triplet sons?

So is Elon actually Grand Admiral Thrawn?

(Original Legends version, not the current new canon version)

 

[AZRI11]

Surely his benefactors could bank-roll this? Click here to support Tripp vs Tesla: Help fund the fight organized by Martin Tripp

Nice to see Keef make an appearance, I thought he'd fallen off the edge of his flat world...

It's not so funny. After what happened in Annapolis I worry about tesla employees especially Elon.

 

[bdy0627]

Elon’s recent attacks on twitter toward shorts are at least half of the reason I bought back in today. If I’m wrong and it ends up being a sizzle, my bad I guess. I’m willing to take that bet.

I agree there is likely more going on than potentially 5k/wk. my best guess is energy related but i really don’t know. The way he directly responded to Goldmans low prediction makes me think it’s related to short burn too, though. I mean news of 5k/wk would make me happy, but disappointed that it wasn’t something more.

His tweets overall suggest it's about production, but a REALLY unexpected production number it seems. It seems unlikely to me that they are at 6,000+ right now, but if they are on pace to be at 6,000+ by the end of July, that would be impressive. I'm not sure the market would be wowed with meeting the 5,000 guidance for end of June. I think what the market is not expecting is a production number substantially higher than 5,000 fairly soon. That would be a shocker.

 

[wipster]

It's not so funny. After what happened in Annapolis I worry about tesla employees especially Elon.

Especially after the RIF and recent sabotage... I hope they have a great security program and staff.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Surely his benefactors could bank-roll this? Click here to support Tripp vs Tesla: Help fund the fight organized by Martin Tripp

Nice to see Keef make an appearance, I thought he'd fallen off the edge of his flat world...

The comments people are leaving... Pure fire. It's like everyone who has a Not-a-Flamethrower are unloading their entire tanks on Tripp. At least he's getting a feel for how people really feel about him now.

 

[Causalien]

Are you new here? No historical context? It's not enough to read about it if you haven't lived it.
For years now, trusting Elon's estimates was a recipe for disaster.
Having said that, (even) this time I do give him some benefit of the doubt. Probably a wrong move, been burnt so many times, what's one more...

I have long been jaded about Elon's projections. But I am risking something this time for the short burn because of the short's response through the media. It's almost like... I can smell their fear.

Before, it was always Elon trying to prove short's thesis wrong. This time, it's the other way around and Elon isn't giving up what his position is.

 

[dc_h]

His tweets overall suggest it's about production, but a REALLY unexpected production number it seems. It seems unlikely to me that they are at 6,000+ right now, but if they are on pace to be at 6,000+ by the end of July, that would be impressive. I'm not sure the market would be wowed with meeting the 5,000 guidance for end of June. I think what the market is not expecting is a production number substantially higher than 5,000 fairly soon. That would be a shocker.

Maybe they’ll announce TE numbers with auto data?

 

[Boomer19]

this is a word salad and you are just nervous


the answer is: we arent really sure, could be negative news and stock pops, could be good news and stock tanks, no way to know




What is EXTRA exciting is the fact that as much hype as there is for Q2 deliveries and financials, there is probably going to be 10x more for Q3



This stock is so addicting!

yes i am. indeed it is.
i’m listening to what he’s telling us. and he’s telling us the whole story all along. the rest is noise.

 

[X Fan]

This relates to a story I can tell about my experience, and helps explain a lot. There are often programs like the one I witnessed “Helmets to Hardhats” that put military into construction, but what they end up doing is stuffing all the headcases into those programs because most the regular folks end up finding their own post-military work I presume. I was working building some new Google office space when one “helmets to headcases” guy went postal on me. It happened so fast I didn’t even know it was happening before two younger ex-servicemen stopped him from physically accosting me, holding this rabid headcase back from physically getting at me! When I looked up, it took a while for me to process what was even going on. These wackos really do exist in ways hard for us regular folk to imagine! Maybe the training to spot PTSD made it to the other two younger servicemen that helped stop him from attacking me. I swiftly left the area and had dispatch send me elsewhere, which seemed to do the trick.

It makes me wonder if what @RobStark said is correct: is it possible to spot the signs early? Now that I experienced that, I can have my antenna out for some of the stuff, but that one guy snapped superweird fast and as a great surprise to me. But theoretically, trained bosses who have to manage that can successfully manage it. I’d love to know some of the techniques, just in case it happens again.

I don’t know your background. Did you serve?

 

[Brian121]

I really feel it's something related to the China news, specifically the sole ownership gigafactory and Model 3/Y manufacture line in Shanghai. With local funding, maybe in the format of a low interest long term loan.

Also, I truly hope that Elon has a solid security detail in lieu of the craze of the shorts and their soon to arrive burn and recent violence, especially the likes of Martin Tripp.

 

[defc0n]

His tweets overall suggest it's about production, but a REALLY unexpected production number it seems. It seems unlikely to me that they are at 6,000+ right now, but if they are on pace to be at 6,000+ by the end of July, that would be impressive. I'm not sure the market would be wowed with meeting the 5,000 guidance for end of June. I think what the market is not expecting is a production number substantially higher than 5,000 fairly soon. That would be a shocker.

The problem is I don’t believe even 6000/wk right now would necessarily burn the shorts THAT bad. That would cause a bit of a run up sure, but nothing that spectaculer, and Q2 earnings will still likely be a drag. It feels like decent production numbers and upcoming profitability is already priced in. I don’t know, will try not to think about it anymore until next week.

 

[defc0n]

Also, I really don’t think they are at something like 6k/wk right now...

 

[wipster]

Also, I really don’t think they are at something like 6k/wk right now...

Ok 5500 and that's my final offer... now I have to watch Bill Maurer...

 

[zeed]

His tweets overall suggest it's about production, but a REALLY unexpected production number it seems. It seems unlikely to me that they are at 6,000+ right now, but if they are on pace to be at 6,000+ by the end of July, that would be impressive. I'm not sure the market would be wowed with meeting the 5,000 guidance for end of June. I think what the market is not expecting is a production number substantially higher than 5,000 fairly soon. That would be a shocker.

The problem is I don’t believe even 6000/wk right now would necessarily burn the shorts THAT bad. That would cause a bit of a run up sure, but nothing that spectaculer, and Q2 earnings will still likely be a drag. It feels like decent production numbers and upcoming profitability is already priced in. I don’t know, will try not to think about it anymore until next week.

You're probably right. Elon's not pulling 24/7 for 1k of icing on the cake. My guess is 5k, by the skin of his teeth. But, what about 5k plus guidance? I mean, we are at the steepest part of the S curve. If we're indeed at 5k, how long did that take to get to from 3500? Like 2 weeks?

5k confirmed along with 7k guided (by August or 8k by end of Q3) would surely drum up some serious attention.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

You're probably right. Elon's not pulling 24/7 for 1k of icing on the cake. My guess is 5k, by the skin of his teeth. But, what about 5k plus guidance? I mean, we are at the steepest part of the S curve. If we're indeed at 5k, how long did that take to get to from 3500? Like 2 weeks?

5k confirmed along with 7k guided (by August or 8k by end of Q3) would surely drum up some serious attention.

Honestly I suspect most people are so accustom to Elon overly optimistic timeframe that guidance will hold little gredance w/investor. Therefore, I feel the most important aspect are going to be actual verified numbers and not projected numbers. That being said, guidance can’t hurt.

I do think with Elon not backing down from his 5k projection plus the short burn comments, along the way combined with recent tweets, Elon is pretty confident on his ability to impress with production numbers. Only time will tell!

has Elon or Tesla announced when they plan to release production numbers?

 

[wipster]

Honestly I suspect most people are so accustom to Elon overly optimistic timeframe that guidance will hold little gredance w/investor. Therefore, I feel the most important aspect are going to be actual verified numbers and not projected numbers. That being said, guidance can’t hurt.

I do think with Elon not backing down from his 5k projection plus the short burn comments, along the way combined with recent tweets, Elon is pretty confident on his ability to impress with production numbers. Only time will tell!

has Elon or Tesla announced when they plan to release production numbers?

No, they never do, but it's typically the 2nd or 3rd day following the end of the quarter, after the market closes. My bet is on Tuesday the 3rd.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Chinese factory Sprung up by end of year. Will start with assembly of stamped parts from Fremont.

Not likely, but would be cool if they could move up production a year or two from expectations.

Don't under-estimate China

Chinese workers build railway station in just nine hours
Chinese build 57-storey skyscraper in 19 days – timelapse video
Caught On Tape: China Builds A Bridge In Just 43 Hours
Video shows Chinese engineers rebuilding 1,300-tonne bridge in 36 HOURS | Daily Mail Online

 

[RABaby]

There are many ways to approach this next week but I think Musk realizes his statements in the past have been optimistic and his timelines came up a bit short. He wants to do what he knows he can do, but the shorts are a nuisance and a distraction. Of course, he also gets even more distracted by the twitter trolls, but all that might subside if he comes through as his demeanor suggests.

So this time, finally, I think Musk is looking forward to a win feeling like a win. And being a rocket man, his burn of the shorts is likely going to be drawn out and painful for them as he has planned multiple stages to propel the stock ever higher. I think the launch begins Monday with the release of production numbers but there will be fireworks all week.

At least that is how I would like to see it as a fan. As an investor, I would rather see numbers after the market closes on Monday, then the stock hits $1000 on Tuesday and Musk tweets a booster announcement on the 4th, knowing how painful it will make the day for big buck shorts as they anxiously await the market open on Thursday.

Is there any long who wouldn't relish the idea of the shorts, who have planned big 4th of July parties, but now their displeasure at the turn of events with TSLA then directing some expression of anger at their guests? I would love to see a Youtube channel dedicated to videos of all those parties.

All we need is for Musk and friends to come through. Please make this a reality instead of one more fantasy.

 

[rameshbende]

5k exit rate with more than 30k production will trigger 10% run in the stock. And then news of China GF followed by release of autopilot update will trigger additional 10% run enough to scare bears cause short burn.