TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Lessmog]

I find it interesting that US autos did not take a hit to speak of from the Chinese tariffs imposed today. Perhaps it's built into the stock price as it has been anticipated for a couple weeks. Autos in Autos in p particular are doubly hit not only by the overall price sanctions but by aluminum, steel, and othemore r items included in the price of the car.

Do American cars really have a large market in China anyway? I can imagine some of the more prestigious marques sell a number to the mega-moguls, but perhaps most of those are not American? Except for one brand.

 

[kelly]

It could also be that Linette Lopez is just lashing out. She is after all being publicly called out as worthless at her job and possibly also as a 'useful idiot' by a man who is not only one of the world's most successful entrepreneurs - but also someone many find very attractive. I do dare to add that the latter characteristic hardly is found by many in a man she is proud to interact with, i.e. Jim Chanos.

I linked to this article in the general discussion thread earlier: Business Reporter Linette Lopez on Money, Power, and Making It on Wall Street

If you read the entire article you could conclude, as I have, that Linette has a huge ego.

Another interesting comment by her in that article: "I have to be very careful about protecting the identities of my sources, especially in the hedge fund space, because they could get in big trouble with their employers. I write a lot of analysis and opinion, so I don’t usually quote people, which is lucky." I suspect she would claim that all of her "anti-tesla" articles are simply analysis or opinion, as opposed to "journalism" in the classic sense.

During my google dive into Linette, I found this very interesting (read: discouraging) article about shorter Andrew Left: The Bounty Hunter of Wall Street
As described in the article, Left was attacking a company called Express Scripts on twitter, and then waiting to see if the stock price dropped.

"Finally the corrected version of the tweet came out from Left’s handle, @CitronResearch, followed moments later by another: “When @RealDonaldTrump goes after $ESRX,” it read, using the ticker symbol for Express Scripts, “heads will roll.” We sat back and waited, eyes on CNBC. Twenty minutes passed. Suddenly a news flash interrupted the show. “Express Scripts shares are falling sharply on a spike in volume,” the anchor said. “Citron Research, run by Andrew Left, tweeted about the stock. They’re now down by 9 or 10 percent, about 9.2 million shares so far.” Left’s tweet appeared in the corner of the screen. In the office, the atmosphere went taut.

We watched as the stock came down, dollar after dollar, from 75 to 74 to 73; 72, 71, 70. Left wrote two more tweets, including a promise to appear on television with further revelations. Soon, the phone started ringing — reporters calling. Linette Lopez from Business Insider texted for quotes."​

I am sure that Linette knows lots of shorts other than Chanos.

 

[Reciprocity]

Do American cars really have a large market in China anyway? I can imagine some of the more prestigious marques sell a number to the mega-moguls, but perhaps most of those are not American? Except for one brand.

Some brands are very popular in China. Cadillac for one. Tesla is another. I dont think Japanese cars are popular at all in China, though they are very popular here in the US.

 

[wipster]

Do American cars really have a large market in China anyway? I can imagine some of the more prestigious marques sell a number to the mega-moguls, but perhaps most of those are not American? Except for one brand.

Well I was mainly talking about Tesla, but I wanted to be nice and include them all. They are all affected by tariffs however, including a lot imposed by the US, mainly electronic suppliers but it all adds up.

 

[RobStark]

Do American cars really have a large market in China anyway? I can imagine some of the more prestigious marques sell a number to the mega-moguls, but perhaps most of those are not American? Except for one brand.

The biggest auto exporter from the US to China is BMW. All their SUVs in fact. ~100k units.

Ford sells just under 1M vehicles in China per year and exports about 2k cars from the US. GM about 3.9M with about 5k from the US. In large part because of the 25% tariff.

Daimler also probably exports more vehicles from the US to China than any US headquartered company.

 

[Lessmog]

The biggest auto exporter from the US to China is BMW. All their SUVs in fact. ~100k units.

Ford sells just under 1M vehicles in China per year and exports about 2k cars from the US. GM about 3.9M with about 5k from the US. In large part because of the 25% tariff.

Daimler also probably exports more vehicles from the US to China than any US headquartered company.

Right, I forgot about the American company BMW Never mind then

 

[Thumper]

Weird day when flat seems like a win.

 

[madodel]

I linked to this article in the general discussion thread earlier: Business Reporter Linette Lopez on Money, Power, and Making It on Wall Street

If you read the entire article you could conclude, as I have, that Linette has a huge ego.

Another interesting comment by her in that article: "I have to be very careful about protecting the identities of my sources, especially in the hedge fund space, because they could get in big trouble with their employers. I write a lot of analysis and opinion, so I don’t usually quote people, which is lucky." I suspect she would claim that all of her "anti-tesla" articles are simply analysis or opinion, as opposed to "journalism" in the classic sense.

During my google dive into Linette, I found this very interesting (read: discouraging) article about shorter Andrew Left: The Bounty Hunter of Wall Street
As described in the article, Left was attacking a company called Express Scripts on twitter, and then waiting to see if the stock price dropped.

"Finally the corrected version of the tweet came out from Left’s handle, @CitronResearch, followed moments later by another: “When @RealDonaldTrump goes after $ESRX,” it read, using the ticker symbol for Express Scripts, “heads will roll.” We sat back and waited, eyes on CNBC. Twenty minutes passed. Suddenly a news flash interrupted the show. “Express Scripts shares are falling sharply on a spike in volume,” the anchor said. “Citron Research, run by Andrew Left, tweeted about the stock. They’re now down by 9 or 10 percent, about 9.2 million shares so far.” Left’s tweet appeared in the corner of the screen. In the office, the atmosphere went taut.

We watched as the stock came down, dollar after dollar, from 75 to 74 to 73; 72, 71, 70. Left wrote two more tweets, including a promise to appear on television with further revelations. Soon, the phone started ringing — reporters calling. Linette Lopez from Business Insider texted for quotes."​

I am sure that Linette knows lots of shorts other than Chanos.

She has 15.6k followers. Elon has 22.1 million. She is just looking for attention and to make a name. She picked a losing battle.

 

[Ugliest1]

Market reaction is totally understandable:
Elon's promise/expectation: sustained weekly 5k M3 with a peak of 6k.
Reality: peak of 5k achieved temporarily in a TENT (you gotta be kidding me...).
It's another delay, I'm not surprised we go back where we were one month ago.
I mean I still like Elon and Tesla, but he's a celebrity and a rockstar, I understand why fund managers and Institutional people are fed up.

Actual figures are the only way to convince the market and stop the trolling / BS. But now we have to wait for 3Q18.

Uhhhhh.... don't forget that TENT, usually described in "journalist" articles as temporary, has a 30-year guarantee from the company that makes it.

I also understand why fund managers are fed up -- they're looking at Tesla from the "just like other companies" lens, and they don't understand what a growth company is. You're right about actual profit will be the only way to slow/stop the trolling.

 

[jelloslug]

Right, I forgot about the American company BMW Never mind then

The largest BMW factory in the world is in the US.

 

[YasB]

I find it interesting that US autos did not take a hit to speak of from the Chinese tariffs imposed today. Perhaps it's built into the stock price as it has been anticipated for a couple weeks. Autos in Autos in p particular are doubly hit not only by the overall price sanctions but by aluminum, steel, and other items included in the price of the car.

There have been some articles in german press that the EU may start talks with the USA to reach a mutual agreement to completely remove tariffs on all types of cars. It is rumored that this proposition came from US officials and is discussed by EU officials. That may have helped a little? Afaik, that's still more a rumour than a fact, but it was covered by several news sources today. China tariffs and the steel issue should have been priced in since a while.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reading through Elon Musks Twitter engagements regarding shorts and parts of the media, i think it's been a mistake. If you have facts to prove your allegiations, present them. If you are suspecting there is such a kind of connection, collect evidence and prepare yourself before you engage in such a discussion. There's a not-null chance such things backfire. Media people are influential and you probably don't want them to be your enemy, since they tend to stick together, because you know ... freedom of speech, being the fourth branch of power and such. You may also attract some of the false people. Yesterday was the first day i've seen people like Marc Cohodes and MuddyWaters-Research chime in on the discussion. Those are people have an awefull lot of experience shorting stocks and you usually want them, to not have your company on the radar. It seem's to be a common belief among these people, that CEOs downtalking shorts are doing so because the company is short-worthie and those CEOs know that the company is in trouble. I think you wouldn't want that.

Maybe some of you have the time to read this open letter written some years ago. Imho, this seems to be a much better way to handle shorts attacking your stock, than what Elon Musk is currently doing.

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds To Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now.

ps: Typos are for free. I may be a little tipsy since i listened to several QuothTheRaven podcasts and they have a 2 drink minimum. :-/

 

[lklundin]

I linked to this article in the general discussion thread earlier: Business Reporter Linette Lopez on Money, Power, and Making It on Wall Street

If you read the entire article you could conclude, as I have, that Linette has a huge ego.

I think there is a real possibility that Linette Lopez will soon be a full time free-lancer.

 

[YasB]

I also understand why fund managers are fed up -- they're looking at Tesla from the "just like other companies" lens, and they don't understand what a growth company is.

If they wouldn't value Tesla as a growth company, they wouldn't own it. There is not a single reason to own Tesla with a 60b+ valuation when you only look at current fundamentals.

 

[mongo]

, i think it's been a mistake. If you have facts to prove your allegiations, present them.

He has direct information from the alleged accomplice, what more do you want?
Edit: better yet, what more could exist?

Tweet # 1

Sounds very sketchy if true. @lopezlinette, is it possible you’re serving as an inside trading source for one of Tesla’s biggest short-sellers? An ex-Tesla employee just went on record formally claiming you bribed him & he sent you valuable Tesla IP in exchange. Is this true?

 

[oneday]

Uhhhhh.... don't forget that TENT, usually described in "journalist" articles as temporary, has a 30-year guarantee from the company that makes it.

I also understand why fund managers are fed up -- they're looking at Tesla from the "just like other companies" lens, and they don't understand what a growth company is. You're right about actual profit will be the only way to slow/stop the trolling.

I’ve read some places that the permit for the structure is listed as temporary and for 6 months.

Does anyone know if this is the case or not?

 

[YasB]

He has direct information from the alleged accomplice, what more do you want?
Edit: better yet, what more could exist?

Tweet # 1

1. I would want to see or hear that evidence of course.
2. That alleged accomplice is denying that he was given or promised anything.
3. Is that ex-employee Martin Tripp? Maybe there is another one?

All we have now is a tweet from Elon Musk. That may be enough to convince people who have a friendly attitude towards him, but those are not the people you have to convince. As i said above, if you have facts to prove your allegiations, present them. I hope this happens when the lawsuit proceeds, since i'm really curious about this stuff.

 

[YasB]

I’ve read some places that the permit for the structure is listed as temporary and for 6 months.

Does anyone know if this is the case or not?

Afaik it currently is, but they could simply install fire protection and some other stuff and could make it permanent.

 

[lklundin]

I’ve read some places that the permit for the structure is listed as temporary and for 6 months.

Does anyone know if this is the case or not?

I can't find it just now, but a few days ago someone, somewhere seemed to have actual copies of the
"Sprung 3" permit. According to that, it is indeed temporary, limited to six months. The associated discussion had a consensus that the local Fremont authority would very likely extend the permit, given that Tesla is a large employer and tax-payer there.

EDIT: This is as close as I could get just now:
Accela Citizen Access

 

[Krugerrand]

Happens ALL the time, with the parents too :-D The kids usually start dancing too...

Recently picked up two good ole boys in Texas. They were from Oklahoma, which has a limited number of Teslas. Their pickup had run out of diesel so I ran them to the gas station and back. You could smell the beer on them so distinctly that I bet I could name the brand they were drinking.

They’d never been in a Tesla but they knew what it was and asked all sorts of questions. They were also really careful not to touch anything in the car, which I appreciated since I’m not that well versed on getting diesel out of interior materials.

Turned out they were best friends of a relative of my friends. Fast forward a few days and I’ve heard through the grapevine those two have been talking to everyone in town about it. That’s the power of Tesla (and putting the hammer down).

 

[Todd Burch]

Recently picked up two good ole boys in Texas.

Good job, kitty. Those are the people that need the most exposure to Tesla.