That's my point. Your earlier post seemed to assume they were up and running at a high sustained rate. I just wanted to point out that we have no idea of how well they're doing.
If I misunderstood you, my apologies mate!
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That's my point. Your earlier post seemed to assume they were up and running at a high sustained rate. I just wanted to point out that we have no idea of how well they're doing.
If I misunderstood you, my apologies mate!
ruralectric
Member
Periods, and that disclaimer of his, I forget how it goes exactly, something like "I really don't know what I'm talking about and I don't care if I'm right or wrong and not an advice".TT007, I love your enthusiasm for TSLA. I love how your predictions always make me feel, for a brief time, like I'm going to be a multi-millionaire within a week or two.
But having said that, I will only tolerate your ambitious posts if you agree to start using a period every once in awhile. Please. My eyes need a brief pause occasionally so they can breathe. Like. This.
Thank you.
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Esme Es Mejor
Member
Thank you, @ZsoZso, for understanding & explaining my point.
I would like to add that my question was actually less baseless than @FirebirdAlpha ’s question. While there is no available information that Chanos has covered, there’s no available information that he hasn’t— so my question was (intentionally) baseless but possibly true. There is readily available information that Tesla has had profitable quarters— so FirebirdAlpha’s question was not only baseless, but clearly false.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I think Model 3 will be a hit in Europe but a lesser hit than in the US. Like the Gen II cars.
The differences in price of energy is not going to make Model 3 a bigger hit in Europe relative to the US. That was my contention.
In the real world I am a hyper bull. In this forum I am an ultra cautious bull with only 30% of my net worth in TSLA.
Some senior posters here were stating that by the time Tesla delivered the first Model 3 there would be millions of Model 3 reservations, demand for ICEv would dry up and several legacy OEMs would be declaring bankruptcy. The ultra uber extreme bullishness needs to be tempered with reality.
I am proponent of the US trading with first world countries plus the BRIC countries on equal terms. The time we accepted unfair trade, where our allies placed higher tariff and non-tariff barriers on the USA than we placed on them should be over. We did that after WWII because the European,Japanese, and Korean economies were destroyed and ours was not. I do not object to giving the extremely poor countries favorable trade terms. But the time we accept 10%-25% tariffs on our goods and charge 2.5% on their goods should be over.
Even a two front trade war doesn't with China and Europe doesn't greatly affect the US economy. And we have settled terms with the South Koreans.
BTW My objection to "you sound like a TSLA bear" in taking my projections and turning them into "promises". Like TSLA bears make promises out of every Elon speculation.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There is a gas tax revolt going on in California. Not Kentucky or Texas but California. Over $.12 per gallon. There is a massive ballot box initiative that has a 50/50 chance of passing and where Republicans are outnumbered by over 2-1 the Republican candidate for governor has a real chance of winning. All over a 12 cents per gallon tax hike.
Don't tell me Americans don't think about the price of gas.
I keep hearing about all the uber rational Norther Europeans that strongly look at TCO when buying a car. Now they are going to overpay for future fuel savings on Model 3? Even if it doesn't pan out on the number crunching relative to typical small engined hatchback?
What about my post made you think it wasn't present tense and in-progress and therefore not complete?
When I talked about being >5K and aiming for 10K in 6+ months from now, did you think that if we didn't have hard evidence of such 48 hours after a week-lmh sjut down they had given up on ramping to greater than 5K?
And as for "assuming", Elon states they already were aiming for 6K "next month"...
I'm not quite sure what your contention is?
Dude, I don't want to argue with you, wasn't my intention at all. Just stating unless we've got inside information, we really don't know where the M3 lines are for sustained production rates. While I am a huge Elon fan, I'll believe 6K weekly sustained production when I get confirmation. I hope and believe they can do it by the end of the 3rd quarter, but I'm not going to assume it until they do it.
But no worries mate, I'm just saying let's not take it as a given... stuff can happen.
The short burn in three weeks could be happening in a way that was unexpected - any surprise for Musk?
InsideEvs is reporting a 455 mile range for the AWD and performance 3.
This would be a huuuuuge deal.
If true, I think the stock pops.
Tesla Model 3 AWD & Performance Rated With 455-Mile Range By CARB
(to spare those just reading this the need to disagree or comment, this is not real miles. I got sucked in. )
InsideEvs is reporting a 455 mile range for the AWD and performance 3.
This would be a huuuuuge deal.
If true, I think the stock pops.
Tesla Model 3 AWD & Performance Rated With 455-Mile Range By CARB
(to spare those just reading this the need to disagree or comment, this is not real miles. I got sucked in. )
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I'm not drawing any bloody conclusions!!!! That's my point. Go argue with yourself.
jhm
Well-Known Member
OK.
The context of my post was that they weren't going to be only at 5K a week as they work through the backlog, and that they'd ramp to above that point sometime by the time we got in 2019.
But you are right. That's an assumption... based on Elon's target of 6K in a month, but I absolutely have no proof. They very well could never manage 5K again, much less ever get to the 10K they have publicly targeted.
So, now that we are a whopping 24 hours past the week-long shutdown, it's silly to even assume that we will see better than 5K over the course of time they will need to work through a 400K+ backlog... even though... you know... they went from 0 to 5K in a little over six months.
Ridiculous of me to even assume that might happen.
Sparky
Member
From the linked CARB report which shows the RWD Model 3 getting a 495 mile rating:
"We should note that the 455.32-mile rating is not a real-world or EPA figure, but rather it’s based on CARB methodology."
Well mate, we can hope! I have confidence they'll get to at least 7,500 a week by year end. Wish we had something better than that Bloomberg tool to depend on, but we'll hear more about it in about a month at the quarterly report.
Go Tesla!
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