TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

What the hell is the CARB rating and why are they rating cars now. It sounds almost as dumb as the Japanese rating which has the last-gen Nissan Leaf at 200 miles when the EPA rating is 80 miles.

 

[MP3Mike]

Wow, how is this possible?

Because it isn't the EPA test. (The RWD Model 3 gets 495 miles on the CARB test.)

 

[MP3Mike]

The short burn in three weeks could be happening in a way that was unexpected - any surprise for Musk?
InsideEvs is reporting a 455 mile range for the AWD and performance 3.
This would be a huuuuuge deal.
If true, I think the stock pops.

Tesla Model 3 AWD & Performance Rated With 455-Mile Range By CARB

Did you read more than the headline? The AWD/Performance models get 8% less range than the RWD on the same test.

 

[Big Earl]

The short burn in three weeks could be happening in a way that was unexpected - any surprise for Musk?
InsideEvs is reporting a 455 mile range for the AWD and performance 3.
This would be a huuuuuge deal.
If true, I think the stock pops.

Tesla Model 3 AWD & Performance Rated With 455-Mile Range By CARB

No, no. Hold it right there.

InsideEVs slapped a click-bait title on their article. If you delve further into it, you’ll see that the 455 is a raw dyno result that doesn’t take aerodynamic drag into account. They’re actually pointing out that the dual motor configurations have less range *in this particular test* than the single motor configuration (455 miles vs 495 miles). Full EPA test results have not been published yet, so reacting to this in any way is premature.

 

[RABaby]

Did you read more than the headline? The AWD/Performance models get 8% less range than the RWD on the same test.

No, no. Hold it right there.

InsideEVs slapped a click-bait title on their article. If you delve further into it, you’ll see that the 455 is a raw dyno result that doesn’t take aerodynamic drag into account. They’re actually pointing out that the dual motor configurations have less range *in this particular test* than the single motor configuration (455 miles vs 495 miles). Full EPA test results have not been published yet, so reacting to this in any way is premature.

Yes, yes, yes

I read the article but turns out I misread it and after posting the link considered that it was a typo and they meant 3 instead of 4. Then upon reading it again, realized it was not real miles.

Forgive my enthusiasm. I am grasping at straws to find big numbers and recover some big bucks lost the last week.

 

[NicoV]

European electricity prices are also sky high.


Also heard they don't like sedans very much.

Electricity is still a about one fifth the price of gas on a per km basis.
And I don’t know where you got the idea that sedans are not liked. SUVs are getting more popular, but far from;the popularity in then USA.

 

[NicoV]

Sedans sales are less than SUVs in Europe.

Take all the different type of hatches and they dwarf sedan sales. MPVs SUVs hatchbacks etc.


Driving electric in Europe does not reep higher savings than in the USA.

Model 3 will not have free Supercharging.

Like everywhere, once BEVs become significant in number free charging at government buildings and places like shopping centers begin to evaporate.

A disagree not because what you state is strictly untrue, but because it has nothing to do with how popular a Model 3 could be:
Europeans don’t like big cars because they are less practical in our dense cities. That’s why we buy liftbacks and stationwagons to get a bit of more cargo space while still having the benefit of a small car. SUV sales in Europe are of the micro-SUV type for precisely the same reason.
Model 3 has enough cargo space to attract these European buyers. Demand will not be a problem in Europe despite Model 3 being a sedan. Model Y may ultimately be more popular (if it is not too big), but as long as only Model 3 is available, Tesla will have no problem selling everything they allocate for Europe.

 

[NicoV]

You seem to be objecting to more points than I was attempting to make. I think the Model 3 will do well on both continents. Perhaps the Europeans will appreciate the higher power that the Model 3 will deliver. That can be just as compelling as saving money on fuel.

Yes. We have low speed limits and governments that put a lot of effort into enforcing those speed limits. But there are no laws limiting accellaration. Personally I enjoy going from 0 to 50 km/h in a split second more than boring highway driving at high speed.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Yes. We have low speed limits and governments that put a lot of effort into enforcing those speed limits. But there are no laws limiting accellaration. Personally I enjoy going from 0 to 50 km/h in a split second more than boring highway driving at high speed.

Actually, a lot of places have laws that can be applied to hard launches. Everything from the vague and broad reckless driving, to specific excessive acceleration, "exhibition", "racing" or similar laws.

Also, physics

 

[erthquake]

The short burn in three weeks could be happening in a way that was unexpected - any surprise for Musk?
InsideEvs is reporting a 455 mile range for the AWD and performance 3.
This would be a huuuuuge deal.
If true, I think the stock pops.

Tesla Model 3 AWD & Performance Rated With 455-Mile Range By CARB


(to spare those just reading this the need to disagree or comment, this is not real miles. I got sucked in. )

It's a different dyno testing platform that's biased more toward city driving heavy on fast acceleration and doesn't take aero into account. Can't remember the name of it offhand, but the RWD LR Model 3 had a 495 mile range on that test. Some have suggested to me that's maybe why Tesla dumbed down the LR RWD range from the EPA's 334 estimate because the LR AWD will have a lower EPA estimate. The AWD will likely have better highway range than the RWD, but most of the tests don't capture the ability of the second AWD motor to be more efficient in low-torque situations.

Edit: I see others were quicker. The CARB test is used to certify that an EV qualifies for ZEV credits.

 

[NicoV]

I keep hearing about all the uber rational Norther Europeans that strongly look at TCO when buying a car. Now they are going to overpay for future fuel savings on Model 3? Even if it doesn't pan out on the number crunching relative to typical small engined hatchback?

When I reserved my Model 3, I made the following calculation: I took the cheapest (non-diesel) car on the Belgian market (the Dacia Sandero, about 8K euro IIRC) and calculated how much km you’d have to drive to make a Model 3 with zero options cheaper. That is somewhere between 200K km and 300K km. If you can calculate the TCO, and be willing to drive the car long enough, it’s a no-brainer. That being said, the Model 3 will sell because people want it, and the TCO will be used to convince their wife (or husband);

 

[NicoV]

Actually, a lot of places have laws that can be applied to hard launches. Everything from the vague and broad reckless driving, to specific excessive acceleration, "exhibition", "racing" or similar laws.

Also, physics

Yes. But these are subjective (thus requiring a policman willing to fine you for that) and there are no devices that will record what you did to fine you. Hard accellaration without exceeding the speed limit and without doing dangerous stuff will not be fined.

 

[Waiting4M3]

China has the political ability to make long term plans (on account of basically never having real elections that lead to massive shifts in direction). This means they don't care about the financial costs now, if the costs are for the greater good of the nation. They're doing massive expensive projects all over to clean up their environment, everything from pushing EVs to replacing coal power plants and doing nuclear research that get NIMBY'd in most other places.

China isn't worried about Tesla being competition for domestic BEV producers. China wants to be 100% EV as fast as possible, faster than is possible even with their own aggressive incentivization of EV's and disincentivization of ICE vehicles. It would be probably another decade before Tesla is eating Chinese BEV market more than it's eating the ICE market.

By then, even without the (not entirely far fetched) conspiracy theory of China stealing Tesla's trade secrets (spoiler: Tesla/Elon won't care too much since the goal is faster transition to sustainable future, not profits for profits' sake), China BEV makers should be mostly caught up in everything but brand popularity (and perhaps even that, too).

There's is room for Tesla in China, for quite some time. By the time China's domestic BEV brands are fighting Tesla for market share in China (versus eating the ICE market), they'll be doing it outside of China too, and it will be international automotive business as usual.

Another aspect given the scale that China is transitioning to EV/batteries, they will probably be the technology leader in that field in 10 years. Tesla should be in China recruiting all the top talent that they can get their hands on.

 

[WarpedOne]

455 miles ... jesus, is it really that hard to comprehend that different driving regimes demand different energy usage?
This number is result of UDDS test, google it up and educate yourself.

 

[Tslynk67]

Actually, a lot of places have laws that can be applied to hard launches. Everything from the vague and broad reckless driving, to specific excessive acceleration, "exhibition", "racing" or similar laws.

Also, physics

In the UK they would use “driving without due care and attention” - can be applied to almost any situation if they can’t get another charge to stick.

However, try maximum acceleration on the streets in a Ferrari, Porsche, Lsmbi, etc., and anyone in a wide radius will know about it - cops included. Do the same in a Tesla and nobody’s the wiser unless actually looking.

 

[HG Wells]

Yes. But these are subjective (thus requiring a policman willing to fine you for that) and there are no devices that will record what you did to fine you. Hard accellaration without exceeding the speed limit and without doing dangerous stuff will not be fined.

AND that is without sound. Some cars in the US make more NOISE than I can stand.
Living on the lake, I can hear a sports car revving a mile away.

 

[Cobos]

There is a gas tax revolt going on in California. Not Kentucky or Texas but California. Over $.12 per gallon. There is a massive ballot box initiative that has a 50/50 chance of passing and where Republicans are outnumbered by over 2-1 the Republican candidate for governor has a real chance of winning. All over a 12 cents per gallon tax hike.

Don't tell me Americans don't think about the price of gas.

I keep hearing about all the uber rational Norther Europeans that strongly look at TCO when buying a car. Now they are going to overpay for future fuel savings on Model 3? Even if it doesn't pan out on the number crunching relative to typical small engined hatchback?

I think part of the issue here is Rob is looking at Northern Europe as an example of European mentality while Zhelko is using his south Eastern European experience. Relatively speaking gas is a lot more expensive in SE Europe than N Europe. In Norway it’s the big engined cars that hurts not so much fuel prices. Germans have many with company cars that changes the equation.

Cobos

 

[aubreymcfato]

You seem to be objecting to more points than I was attempting to make. I think the Model 3 will do well on both continents. Perhaps the Europeans will appreciate the higher power that the Model 3 will deliver. That can be just as compelling as saving money on fuel.

It's true that there aren't that many sedans here, but there are some and it the price range of M3. I think that M3 will crush the competition as soon as it arrives in Europe, starting from Norway (look at how many Model S they bought) and going all the way south.

 

[Reciprocity]

When I reserved my Model 3, I made the following calculation: I took the cheapest (non-diesel) car on the Belgian market (the Dacia Sandero, about 8K euro IIRC) and calculated how much km you’d have to drive to make a Model 3 with zero options cheaper. That is somewhere between 200K km and 300K km. If you can calculate the TCO, and be willing to drive the car long enough, it’s a no-brainer. That being said, the Model 3 will sell because people want it, and the TCO will be used to convince their wife (or husband);

Did you factor in residual value? Both cars will still be worth something at 200km. My guess is that your break even is much lower. Also consider solar as a way to save electricity costs.

 

[Tslynk67]

It' a lovey creep-up this morning in pre-market...