TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EinSV]

Also, @Troy uses a totally different method of estimating production and also comes to the same conclusion that throughput is not yet back to the levels beforehand. And finally it makes sense. They had a shut down early this week and it takes time for output to climb back to full capacity. All in all, the numbers seem plausable.

Troy’s method relies on VIN reporting, but VINs are not issued until long after production in many cases — a week or less before deliveries.

Like the Bloomberg counter it may be useful to estimate deliveries or production at the end of a quarter but it’s totally useless in capturing short-term changes in production rates so adds nothing to the equation in my opinion.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Speaking of twitter this is interesting.

Scroll down for the chart but the commentary is actually interesting

skabooshka on Twitter

Interesting, I’ve followed. His 30% gross margin number seems high - is that based on the number of higher margin cars expected? Stil seems high.

 

[Reality]

Lol - it's actually posts like this I am referring to. Talk about self fulfilling prophecy. Your post is hilarious ironic given everything you accuse me of you did in that comment.

I have a $70k Model 3 on order (everything except the autonomous driving basically), my faith in Tesla to delivery is me putting my money where my mouth is, just like most of the others here. It's very unlikely I know as much about Tesla as a lot of people here, but U certainly know more than you're willing to gibe me credit for. We're an institutional investor (long) and I have access to our equity research.

Now I'm sorry I don't have time to read 5 years' worth of comments just to make sure I only post original and insightful information none of you have ever seen before. A quick scan of your last 30 posts or so tell me you haven't either. In fact the vast majority of your posts are snidey take-downs challenging people to provide 'evidence' for their opinions, when you yourself do nothing of the sort. Having said that, I can't possibly compete with a professional forum bully, so won't bother.

Here's the important part. Those of us who are genuinely worried about the health of Tesla, either because we're about to spend a lot of money on one of their cars, or because we have significant net worth invested in their company, have every right to question, probe, criticize or even outright doubt the information coming from Tesla. They're a public company who are legally obligated to protect their shareholders above everything else (that's what it means to be a PLC). They have the same obligation to do that as all companies, from Apple to Enron and everyone inbetween.

I'm here to be informed and learn as much as anyone, and offer my own view (isn't that what a forum is about)

Great post

 

[kbM3]

I want to put the following in the comment section of the interview but would like to share it here first. Let me know if you have suggestions.

This is a hit piece intended to hurt tsla disguised as an interview about Journalism and CEOs criticizing Journalists. Here are the evidences:

1. CNBC invited 3 people on one side and no one on the other side to present opposite view.
2. All three people were connected to Chanos the short seller (Lopez: Linette Lopez on Twitter, Sonnenfeld: James Chanos, Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, McLean: Bethany McLean: your benefit of the doubt is hereby revoked | Deep Capture) Looked like McLean had done this kind of job to Fairfax in the past. To see the dirty tricks of Chanos and his gangs played against Fairfax: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/fairfax-pdf.310679/
3. They proclaimed that the point was about “Journalists under attack” yet repeatedly asked that “investors should re-consider investing in tsla”. Their own words betrayed their real intention.
4. Martin Tripp, the ex-tesla employee who was the source of Lynette’s piece, was clearly someone who intended to hurt tsla through his leaks. Since being caught and sued by tesla, he claimed whistleblowing but his behavior (going to a biased reporter instead of authority, leaking documents about inefficiency and waste which were not whistleblowing materials, etc.) clearly showed that he was a person bent on hurting tesla. Writing a piece based on a shady character like Tripp was not the behavior of an unbiased Journalist interested in reporting truth.
5. McLean almost admitted that she was biased by saying that Elon was also biased because he had incentive to grow tsla market cap. Elon has fiduciary duty to grow tsla and its market cap so there is nothing wrong about that. However, disgusting as an unbiased reporter writing pieces with the real intention to drive down stock price is not Ok.

CNBC should be ashamed of being part of this!

This was very helpful.

I believe you (and others on this site) should send this info to InsideEVs, Electrek, CleanTechnica, TechCastDaily and any other outlets that might publish this.

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week

Musk made the comment in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek last week:

“The past year has been very difficult, but I feel like the coming year is going to be really quite good,” he said. He still had “one foot in hell.” He said manufacturing hell will be over in a month.

The comment comes after Tesla achieved its 5,000 Model 3’s per week goal by pushing its manufacturing team extremely hard.

The CEO slept on the factory floor for 5 days. He said:

“I feel like I have a great debt to the people of Tesla,” he says, his voice cracking with emotion. “The reason I slept on the floor was not because I couldn’t go across the road and be at a hotel. It was because I wanted my circumstances to be worse than anyone else at the company. Whenever they felt pain, I wanted mine to be worse.”

 

[SW2Fiddler]

“I feel like I have a great debt to the people of Tesla,” he says, his voice cracking with emotion. “The reason I slept on the floor was not because I couldn’t go across the road and be at a hotel. It was because I wanted my circumstances to be worse than anyone else at the company. Whenever they felt pain, I wanted mine to be worse.”

#PoorJimChanos

 

[SebastianR]

So what is our take on Q3/Q4? Will the running out of the tax credit supercharge (sorry folks..) US demand? I mean if you are on the fence, now is the time to get your order in...

It is not really that Tesla has a demand issue. But this could be extremely good for US based demand for S + X, right?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

It looks like we have confirmation the 200,000 threshold was hit or will be hit shortly and the full credit will be available until the end of the year. (Seen on Reddit btw)

Electric Vehicle Incentives

Holy Demand Lever, on steroids. With side boosters.

 

[Richgoogol]

Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week

Musk made the comment in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek last week:

“The past year has been very difficult, but I feel like the coming year is going to be really quite good,” he said. He still had “one foot in hell.” He said manufacturing hell will be over in a month.

The comment comes after Tesla achieved its 5,000 Model 3’s per week goal by pushing its manufacturing team extremely hard.

The CEO slept on the factory floor for 5 days. He said:

“I feel like I have a great debt to the people of Tesla,” he says, his voice cracking with emotion. “The reason I slept on the floor was not because I couldn’t go across the road and be at a hotel. It was because I wanted my circumstances to be worse than anyone else at the company. Whenever they felt pain, I wanted mine to be worse.”

What a true leader. I don't want to sound corny but I get teary eyed every time I read about him talking sincerely about the debt he owes the people at Tesla and the initial buyers. And when those shorts and media try to talk down to a man that's so deeply caring than anyone on the planet, and try to paint him into an evil, manipulative piece of sh*t like Chanos, I am just furious. I truly wish they all burn in hell, lose all their sh*t and sleep on the streets.

 

[Cartegena]

I'm no bond guru, but that's fascinating. It appears that this is "Rule 144A qualified institutional buyers" -- the primary requirement is that you have to have *$100 million* to qualify, but you also have to be within a list of things which are considered financial institutions. I suppose if you're rich enough you can set up your own captive investment company. (Also, under rule 144A apparently they can only be sold in units of half a million dollar face value each.)

Any thoughts on why Tesla did not use a conventional registration for the bonds? Was a secret angel investor already lined up?

 

[ggr]

Am I wrong in remembering that they did 5000 in the morning of july 1st at 5am? There was so much mis-information floating around.
This guy's numbers in the last week add up to to 4970 and I could imagine that being reasonably close. They are pulled from a white board in the factory so I'd think there might be a little deviation from the actual production.

This is indeed wrong. The time was when someone posted a photo of the signed banner (which shouldn't have been posted and was taken down, but too late). But there are other signatures on it dated on the 30th, and Tesla has officially (that is, penalties if they lie...) stated numbers.

 

[Drax7]

Any thoughts on why Tesla did not use a conventional registration for the bonds? Was a secret angel investor already lined up?

Makes sense, institutional buyers were lined up, making registration unnecessary.
Moreover they are more likely to hedge themselves .

 

[winfield100]

And here in the Northeast I've yet to see a Model 3 in person.

come on down to Rockville, Maryland, 10 miles NW of washington DC beltway. Stop by Tesla service center on Gude drive.
there you can see a 10-15, various colors, getting prepped for delivery, 2 Car carriers made a delivery a couple of dayz ago. they are very busy. {{the highest number of Tesla's i counted was in the 60's a while back outside.}} ( (EVADC) had a christmas party there a couple of years ago and my Maryland house is close by. )
Also, PEPCO, local electric company, is hosting, today, a maxxed out conference at their HQ 2 miles away (with about 30kW of PV installations and EV plug ins, J1772 and DCFC, 2 electric bus's, EV's, how to get ready for the coming EV flood, with a model 3 and others.

 

[Opus BC fan]

and speaking of raw sewage...
Tesla factory workers reportedly drank Red Bull, walked through raw sewage to meet Model 3 quotas

 

[Todd Burch]

“I feel like I have a great debt to the people of Tesla,” he says, his voice cracking with emotion. “The reason I slept on the floor was not because I couldn’t go across the road and be at a hotel. It was because I wanted my circumstances to be worse than anyone else at the company. Whenever they felt pain, I wanted mine to be worse.”

Take note. This is the definition of "Leader".

 

[Todd Burch]

and speaking of raw sewage...
Tesla factory workers reportedly drank Red Bull, walked through raw sewage to meet Model 3 quotas

Wow, another hit piece from CNBC. Ask me how shocked I am.

Go ahead, ask me.

 

[Boomer19]

Wow, another hit piece from CNBC. Ask me how shocked I am.

Go ahead, ask me.

#boycottCNBC

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week

Musk made the comment in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek last week:

“The past year has been very difficult, but I feel like the coming year is going to be really quite good,” he said. He still had “one foot in hell.” He said manufacturing hell will be over in a month.

The comment comes after Tesla achieved its 5,000 Model 3’s per week goal by pushing its manufacturing team extremely hard.

The CEO slept on the factory floor for 5 days. He said:

“I feel like I have a great debt to the people of Tesla,” he says, his voice cracking with emotion. “The reason I slept on the floor was not because I couldn’t go across the road and be at a hotel. It was because I wanted my circumstances to be worse than anyone else at the company. Whenever they felt pain, I wanted mine to be worse.”

So, if this was a statement from last week...why only in print now?

 

[Todd Burch]

1. Intense pressure is expected and advertised to job applicants. SpaceX is the same way. That is not illegal, and shows why Elon's companies succeed.

2. Let's talk about harsh conditions.

GM assembly line:

Tesla assembly line:

Clearly the bottom assembly line is nastier.

 

[Paracelsus]