TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Tesla has the dealer costs, though, so don't forget that.

Good point in that Tesla needs enough GM to cover any operational losses of the service centers/ showrooms. As more Teslas go out of warranty or get annual service, that loss should shrink for the repair side.
At least they aren't paying for advertising.

 

[avoigt]

Tesla has the dealer costs, though, so don't forget that.

My understanding is that the costs Tesla has with the cost center for shops will be much lower than what ICE company’s pay as commissions to their dealers.

Why? well first of all the amount of stores is lower, secondly they are not paying costs+profits but just cost. Also it’s planned although not yet effective I believe that costs of the stores are also covered with TE products.

Finally although it’s nice to see the cars and products in person most people buy Tesla’s products online which brings costs per unit sold further down. Not to mention advertising cost of dealers which don‘t apply with Tesla.... I could continue...

All of those above is not backed by numbers but the Tesla shops costs are coming up periodically as a short argument. To be fair they have premium locations and therefore will be more expensive, comparing like for like, than some car dealer shop in the suburbs. Still I believe it’s an often used not true argument against Tesla.

Did anybody ever made some meaningful cost calculation comparing Tesla stores to ICE dealers?

 

[cheshire cat]

The other effect is that their staff will fit only what is needed to repair under warranty rather than a cost+ fitting everything bar the kitchen sink to the customers car as it' all grist to the mill when when the manufacturer is picking up the bill, this also gives the owner a sense of trust rather than "well it 's under warranty this time but will it be my turn to get ripped off once it has run out? "

 

[YasB]

Does any car large car manufacturer make this kind of margin ?

I'm sure you are aware, that the answer to your question depends a lot on your assumptions regarding the model mix Tesla will sell. Especially how many SR versions they deliver and how high EAP take rate will be. If Tesla manages to sell a mix with an average gross margin of 34-36% they are probably ahead of other premium car makers. If they achieve an averaged gross margin in the region of 25% they are probably behind the more profitable car makers. Of course you'd have to adjust a little for the differences in the way the calculations are done.

 

[gora321]

My understanding is that the costs Tesla has with the cost center for shops will be much lower than what ICE company’s pay as commissions to their dealers.

Why? well first of all the amount of stores is lower, secondly they are not paying costs+profits but just cost. Also it’s planned although not yet effective I believe that costs of the stores are also covered with TE products.

Finally although it’s nice to see the cars and products in person most people buy Tesla’s products online which brings costs per unit sold further down. Not to mention advertising cost of dealers which don‘t apply with Tesla.... I could continue...

All of those above is not backed by numbers but the Tesla shops costs are coming up periodically as a short argument. To be fair they have premium locations and therefore will be more expensive, comparing like for like, than some car dealer shop in the suburbs. Still I believe it’s an often used not true argument against Tesla.

Did anybody ever made some meaningful cost calculation comparing Tesla stores to ICE dealers?

...and someone will cry Tesla is different

 

[sweter]

Maybe layman questions, but it would be interesting to know how Munro has estimated the costs? A lot of the Model 3 parts are built in house so it must be hard/impossible to properly price them? Do they include workforce? How was that workforce cost estimated? Do they have a solid idea about Fremont employees wages? Sorry, these may be boneheaded questions, but I wonder if anyone has any more insight into the process here?

I think there might be quite a big margin of error to this report. Like how do they estimate battery pack's price per kWh if that's not a public knowledge? Did they say anywhere what's their estimation?

 

[BETA1019]

Maybe layman questions, but it would be interesting to know how Munro has estimated the costs? A lot of the Model 3 parts are built in house so it must be hard/impossible to properly price them? Do they include workforce? How was that workforce cost estimated? Do they have a solid idea about Fremont employees wages? Sorry, these may be boneheaded questions, but I wonder if anyone has any more insight into the process here?

I think there might be quite a big margin of error to this report. Like how do they estimate battery pack's price per kWh if that's not a public knowledge? Did they say anywhere what's their estimation?

I'm hoping someone on this forum can get their hands on their full report. I think Munro said it costs something like 70k for it (thats not a typo - 70 thousand).

 

[cheshire cat]

...and someone will cry Tesla is different

Well I can recommend BMW--Audi--and Merc dealers as somewhere to steer well away from (fiscally speaking)

 

[cheshire cat]

I'm hoping someone on this forum can get their hands on their full report. I think Munro said it costs something like 70k for it (thats not a typo - 70 thousand).

Wonder how many they sell ?

 

[Lessmog]

Wonder how many they sell ?

... and their margin ...
ISTR it was 83k, or 87k. Same difference to me anyway.

 

[Boomer19]

... and their margin ...
ISTR it was 83k, or 87k. Same difference to me anyway.

courtesy of @YasB yesterday
http://leandesign.com/pdf/Tesla-3-Analysis-Sales-Information.pdf

types of reports they sell

@cheshire cat @SoWrathia

 

[bdy0627]

Exactly. I could definitely add my 2 cts to the flow of comments about the upcoming short squeeze, about Elon's tweets about random guy, about 'tmc members who invested 6+ years ago but must be short b/c they aren't cultish enough' (...) but I prefer to contribute somewhere else 'til the focus is back on the mission.

Note that the post that started this rant was just me asking for the sources of some crazy claim. The answer I received was "you must be short".

I'm sharing this b/c

1. I don't know how many members feel the same
2. I haven't heard such complaint before
3. I had to say something before leaving (or not) especially as I found the investor subforum really interesting to read for a few years.

Comment like "you mad?" when I try to explain why I fear the forum is becoming the church of a cult, while discussions about the transition to renewable energy has become extremely rare in the past year, is a prefect illustration.

I personally like hearing from veterans and new members, rational bulls and bears. I would agree that repeated posts about the squeeze are not helpful and are particularly counter-productive for those who may take them seriously. I think the S/N ratio varies a lot depending upon what is going on with Elon and the stock. It's the cost of having a forum with lots of different people providing input. Sometimes veterans complaining about the forum these days sound like grumps talking about the good old days. I can relate on days when I don't seem to know anyone posting and wonder where all of the old chums went. But, change happens whether you want it to or not. There is plenty to learn here from the many different perspectives and I appreciate it. Maybe those who are highly optimistic about a short squeeze happening any moment could try to appreciate that hearing that over and over and over is truly just noise.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm sure you are aware, that the answer to your question depends a lot on your assumptions regarding the model mix Tesla will sell. Especially how many SR versions they deliver and how high EAP take rate will be. If Tesla manages to sell a mix with an average gross margin of 34-36% they are probably ahead of other premium car makers. If they achieve an averaged gross margin in the region of 25% they are probably behind the more profitable car makers. Of course you'd have to adjust a little for the differences in the way the calculations are done.

25% sounds more reasonable. Also reasonable to expect other premeir ato mfgs margins to plunnet

 

[JRP3]

Good point in that Tesla needs enough GM to cover any operational losses of the service centers/ showrooms. As more Teslas go out of warranty or get annual service, that loss should shrink for the repair side.
At least they aren't paying for advertising.

Tesla stores do double duty, selling solar and grid storage as well.

 

[Krugerrand]

I could laugh it off -- all the way to the bank -- and watch the world burn. But I'm far too young for that.

Ah, so it’s all about you?

Politicians still kick cans down the road and let the fossil fuel industry have its way, Wall Street is excited to play the Saudi Aramco IPO and force Tesla into a cap raise, the media remains in need of its daily clickbait shot, Elon is sorry about his childish tweets and TMC is either busy defending him or timing the short burn of the century.

The sun came up today, you’re alive and kicking, Tesla is moving into a financial situation where it can’t be forced to do anything it doesn’t want to, the sun will come up tomorrow and presumably you’ll still be alive and kicking, Elon has always been empathetic, reflective and apologetic when necessary and TMC is the one place where the oil politicians, the clickbait media and Wall Street shenanigans are not welcome.

Is being mad really a problem?

If you have to ask the question...

 

[Krugerrand]

Waiting until af

Why he waited until after the cover he was getting from the Trump and Putin Show had already passed is a mystery. Now we get a whole fresh news cycle of the mainstream media bashing him until Trump does something else to take control of the news cycle again.

And that didn’t take long. Now you criticize him for apologizing because he didn’t do when you think he should have. Grow up. You got what you wanted, he sincerely apologized.

 

[Krugerrand]

Exactly. I could definitely add my 2 cts to the flow of comments about the upcoming short squeeze, about Elon's tweets about random guy, about 'tmc members who invested 6+ years ago but must be short b/c they aren't cultish enough' (...) but I prefer to contribute somewhere else 'til the focus is back on the mission.

Note that the post that started this rant was just me asking for the sources of some crazy claim. The answer I received was "you must be short".

I'm sharing this b/c

1. I don't know how many members feel the same
2. I haven't heard such complaint before
3. I had to say something before leaving (or not) especially as I found the investor subforum really interesting to read for a few years.

Comment like "you mad?" when I try to explain why I fear the forum is becoming the church of a cult, while discussions about the transition to renewable energy has become extremely rare in the past year, is a prefect illustration.

So, you were mad. I knew it!

Not only have I been invested for 6 years, I’ve also been on this forum that long. You didn’t say anything new. In fact, you joined a rather long list of; it’s become an echo chamber, one stop cult shop, all the good people are leaving, nobody takes my complaint seriously et al list.

Here’s the thing, if you’d taken the time to offer new content on the subject of this forum instead of telling us all how bad we and the forum are you’d have been part of the solution instead of part of the problem you seem to think we and this forum have.

Regardless what anyone thinks about this forum past or present the fact remains, THIS IS the place to be to get the latest and most factual information about all things Tesla and TSLA.

I’m told by many people that the ignore list helps tremendously in reducing noise on the forum. Now we aren’t supposed to talk about the ignore list, ignoring people and any and all things related to the ignore function of this forum, so you didn’t hear it from me. And truthfully I have nobody on ignore (although I understand I’m on quite a few ignore lists, maybe even a lot) so I can neither confirm nor deny that it works.

 

[Unpilot]

So, you were mad. I knew it!

Not only have I been invested for 6 years, I’ve also been on this forum that long. You didn’t say anything new. In fact, you joined a rather long list of; it’s become an echo chamber, one stop cult shop, all the good people are leaving, nobody takes my complaint seriously et al list.

Here’s the thing, if you’d taken the time to offer new content on the subject of this forum instead of telling us all how bad we and the forum are you’d have been part of the solution instead of part of the problem you seem to think we and this forum have.

Regardless what anyone thinks about this forum past or present the fact remains, THIS IS the place to be to get the latest and most factual information about all things Tesla and TSLA.

I’m told by many people that the ignore list helps tremendously in reducing noise on the forum. Now we aren’t supposed to talk about the ignore list, ignoring people and any and all things related to the ignore function of this forum, so you didn’t hear it from me. And truthfully I have nobody on ignore (although I understand I’m on quite a few ignore lists, maybe even a lot) so I can neither confirm nor deny that it works.

It works I have several on it and it really helps the S/N ratio.

 

[JRP3]

In fact, you joined a rather long list of; it’s become an echo chamber, one stop cult shop, all the good people are leaving, nobody takes my complaint seriously et al list.

Yup. Though I do agree with him that the repetitive "here come dah squeeeeezeee" comments are less than helpful. Luckily the worst offender hasn't been heard from lately.

 

[jelloslug]

Maybe layman questions, but it would be interesting to know how Munro has estimated the costs? A lot of the Model 3 parts are built in house so it must be hard/impossible to properly price them? Do they include workforce? How was that workforce cost estimated? Do they have a solid idea about Fremont employees wages? Sorry, these may be boneheaded questions, but I wonder if anyone has any more insight into the process here?

I think there might be quite a big margin of error to this report. Like how do they estimate battery pack's price per kWh if that's not a public knowledge? Did they say anywhere what's their estimation?

They start with base material costs and work their way of from there.