TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[pz1975]

According to Skabooshka's production info posted on twitter (don't know how reliable), production is dropping again. Speculation on twitter from bears seems to point to paint shop as the rate limiter. Any thoughts on why production would spike for a few days to ~700 model 3 per day and then drop down again?

On July 17, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 400
Model S: 140
Model X: 160

I call BS on this person unless they show real proof. Sounds like they are just creating a narrative to back the bear thesis.

 

[riverFox]

According to Skabooshka's production info posted on twitter (don't know how reliable), production is dropping again. Speculation on twitter from bears seems to point to paint shop as the rate limiter. Any thoughts on why production would spike for a few days to ~700 model 3 per day and then drop down again?

On July 17, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 400
Model S: 140
Model X: 160

Setting up lines for P/AWD?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Please select your Q2 2018 EPS estimate here:

Q2 2018 Earnings Results

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[Toolsmack]

I did a quick search on TMC but was unable to come up with the current status of Tesla's license in Charlotte. Can they sell now? The license-pulling was in 2016 and I can't remember if Tesla won on an appeal or not.

They still can not sell and they recently also had to go through a period of not being able to give test drives. They won back the right for test drives , but all paperwork has to come through Raleigh, NC. I’ve bought an S and a 3 through Charlotte and it’s not a problem having paperwork go through Raleigh.

 

[bdy0627]

I call BS on this person unless they show real proof. Sounds like they are just creating a narrative to back the bear thesis.

Could be, but that's not my impression.

 

[bdy0627]

Setting up lines for P/AWD?

Considering performance deliveries are likely to happen imminently, haven't they already done that?

 

[Dennisj00]

I did a quick search on TMC but was unable to come up with the current status of Tesla's license in Charlotte. Can they sell now? The license-pulling was in 2016 and I can't remember if Tesla won on an appeal or not.

As I understand the current ‘arrangement ‘ paperwork comes from Raleigh (a Real dealer that was approved before Tesla became a threat), test drives can happen with some additional paperwork, but no ‘sales’ discussions, only online info.

What BS! I bought two there and it was infinitly better than any other dealer experience!

 

[Ugliest1]

They still can not sell and they recently also had to go through a period of not being able to give test drives. They won back the right for test drives , but all paperwork has to come through Raleigh, NC. I’ve bought an S and a 3 through Charlotte and it’s not a problem having paperwork go through Raleigh.

As I understand the current ‘arrangement ‘ paperwork comes from Raleigh (a Real dealer that was approved before Tesla became a threat), test drives can happen with some additional paperwork, but no ‘sales’ discussions, only online info.

What BS! I bought two there and it was infinity better than any other dealer experience!

Thx @Toolsmack & @Dennisj00. I'm glad that Raleigh loophole exists. No kidding "what BS".

 

[oneday]

Considering performance deliveries are likely to happen imminently, haven't they already done that?

Sure but they could very easily need/want to do some tweaking to the lines.

 

[winfield100]

My jaw dropped when I saw them all. The Charlotte store has had difficulties recently because Hendrick Motors managed to get their selling license pulled. After that, the lot almost always stays empty. When I came over the hill and saw the lot completely packed with Model 3s, it was a sight to behold.

_____pictures_____please_____

 

[Todd Burch]

I call BS on this person unless they show real proof. Sounds like they are just creating a narrative to back the bear thesis.

FWIW, augkuo’s “source” over in the Model 3 lot thread reported identical numbers for yesterday (700). Unclear if they are the same source.

 

[trils0n]

Sure but they could very easily need/want to do some tweaking to the lines.

It could also be any one of their thousands of suppliers shipments was late with a shipment (even a day). Or really any other reason, a machine needed maintenance, they are testing something new, etc. Seriously, this level of microscopic detail is absurd. No other car company's production is tracked per model per day. This is going to produce the same type of errors/misconceptions as the batch to other countries (omg sales to norway are down 90% this month b/c none shipped to norway, instead to china ...omg china sales up 1200% this week)

 

[Ugliest1]

It could also be any one of their thousands of suppliers shipments was late with a shipment (even a day). Or really any other reason, a machine needed maintenance, they are testing something new, etc. Seriously, this level of microscopic detail is absurd. No other car company's production is tracked per model per day. This is going to produce the same type of errors/misconceptions as the batch to other countries (omg sales to norway are down 90% this month b/c none shipped to norway, instead to china ...omg china sales up 1200% this week)

Very good comment attempting to get everyone to relax. Hope it works.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

According to Skabooshka's production info posted on twitter (don't know how reliable), production is dropping again. Speculation on twitter from bears seems to point to paint shop as the rate limiter. Any thoughts on why production would spike for a few days to ~700 model 3 per day and then drop down again?

Information seems accurate. He was almost spot-on with the June 24-30 production numbers.

Perhaps...... demand for a 50k+ Model 3 isn't there? And that there are a LOT of people waiting on the 35k version?

 

[mershaw2001]

Information seems accurate. He was almost spot-on with the June 24-30 production numbers.

Perhaps...... demand for a 50k+ Model 3 isn't there? And that there are a LOT of people waiting on the 35k version?

To play devil's advocate he posted the June 24-June 30 data after the July release that tesla had hit 5000 that week. It wouldn't be too hard to make up 7 numbers that total 5000 if you were making these numbers up.

I am taking the numbers as semi-accurate. For some reason they are multiples of 10. Does that mean that Tesla produces batches of ten cars at a time? Or does that mean his source doesn't have minute resolution into how many are made and "800" is actually more like something in the range of 797?

As Firebird said above his numbers for the last week of june "were almost spot on". However, they were not completely accurate- I added them up last week and came out with something like 4970. Why the discrepancy?

 

[bdy0627]

To play devil's advocate he posted the June 24-June 30 data after the July release that tesla had hit 5000 that week. It wouldn't be too hard to make up 7 numbers that total 5000 if you were making these numbers up.

I am taking the numbers as semi-accurate. For some reason they are multiples of 10. Does that mean that Tesla produces batches of ten cars at a time? Or does that mean his source doesn't have minute resolution into how many are made and "800" is actually more like something in the range of 797?

He says "approximate", so they are likely just rounded up/down.

 

[mershaw2001]

He says "approximate", so they are likely just rounded up/down.

Ok that approximation explains why I would sum them to be slightly different from what tesla reported for the last week of june. Thanks.

 

[Boomer19]

Sure but they could very easily need/want to do some tweaking to the lines.

just throwing #s around say they had 7500p orders and did 750 a week on top of the LR RWD and it took 10 weeks that world fit roughly with the aug-oct schedule so maybe. but pure spec.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I didn't mean wait until 2019 or 2020. Just maybe don't buy the first 2500 VINs. Well, at least I wouldn't. Hopefully someday they'll have the ability to achieve VIN 10k quality with the very first consumer car off the assembly line.

My VIN is 2300. Got it Christmas Eve. It was (and is) perfect.

 

[riverFox]

Information seems accurate. He was almost spot-on with the June 24-30 production numbers.

Perhaps...... demand for a 50k+ Model 3 isn't there? And that there are a LOT of people waiting on the 35k version?

Definitely not a demand problem. Take a gander at all the threads on all the Tesla forums of folks impatiently waiting for their VINs to be assigned(count me one of them)