TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Time]

So ignore the recent hovering action, unless you want to switch from long term investing to market timing....

12 month returns:
NASDAQ: 30%
TSLA: 46%

I guess I just fear the market rising too much, causing Tesla to get caught up in a correction at some point. 30% rise in the Nasdaq in 12 months versus a company with insane growth like Tesla rising 46% concerns me.

 

[hoang51]

There were three major risks with Model 3, and we've pretty much dodged them all:

1)Problems with production?
The vast majority of serious problems are revealed at the very start of production. We're now past that point.

2) Problems with the car?
A thousand cars are now in the hands of real customers and we aren't hearing about any major issues.

3) Problems with customer satisfaction?
Apparently you can sell them on Craigslist for $70,000, yet I don't see many on offer.

This is what the analysts should be talking about. Q4 was a huge success.

I respectfully disagree. Those questions are mainly for people who review cars. Analysts should be focused on asking how much $$$ can the company make in the near future for share holders, among other things.

 

[tinm]

I almost wonder if Elon might have decided to try under promising and over delivering for 2018.

If ever there were a posting that demonstrates the need for TMC to add another kind of response button in addition to Like, Funny, Informative, etc., it's this one.

This needs a "Naaaah..." button.

 

[sundaymorning]

I'm thrilled with the recent delivery report. Over 100k Model S/X for the year. 1550 Model 3s delivered... as expected if you were following VINs and deliveries. And Model 3 ramping to around 1000/week run rate in last few days of quarter. Also as I expected, Tesla pushed their 5000/week guidance to end of Q2... which makes a lot more sense. Gives them breathing room to focus on quality.

I’m with you on this. I recalled discussing with you the possibility of Tesla producing 500-1000 per week for mid-December through end-December. 4th quarter’s situation made it nearly impossible to gage production, but now we can see a clearer picture as to how this ramp can sustain.

 

[Tslynk67]

I’m with you on this. I recalled discussing with you the possibility of Tesla producing 500-1000 per week for mid-December through end-December. 4th quarter’s situation made it nearly impossible to gage production, but now we can see a clearer picture as to how this ramp can sustain.

Same here, as I said yesterday, I find this a superb situation to begin the year. I'm very happy with it indeed.

 

[NicoV]

I have reasons for that, but I'm tired of typing.

Interesting argumentation. I have to remember that one.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Poll: Gigafactory 1 production

 

[bdy0627]

I’m with you on this. I recalled discussing with you the possibility of Tesla producing 500-1000 per week for mid-December through end-December. 4th quarter’s situation made it nearly impossible to gage production, but now we can see a clearer picture as to how this ramp can sustain.

It's still a pretty fast ramp, all things considered. I just wish Tesla would guide more competently. This would have made a ton of sense in terms of a projected ramp many months ago. I don't know a whole lot about the process of car manufacturing, but how much discussion at the company 9 - 12 months ago would have been required to decide to ramp more slowly as they are now going to do? Why wouldn't they have figured this out even just 2 months ago? The sudden change in guidance from their stance in November is what bothers me. I've got to pay way more attention to projections from ultra conservative contributors like Al and DaveT, as well as analysts who seem even crazy conservative, such as Adam Jonas and Gene Munster. These guys know Tesla very very well.

 

[bdy0627]

Premarket is showing us down about 11 points. I don't really have any dry powder at this point without further reducing my allocation to other investments. If we drop quite a bit, I will probably do just that though. It usually makes sense to wait until at least day 3 or 4 on a drop to avoid getting in too early. I don't think this situation will buck that trend. I'm going to watch and wait. Any good reasons that others expect a rapid bounce this time around?

 

[Richgoogol]

It's still a pretty fast ramp, all things considered. I just wish Tesla would guide more competently. This would have made a ton of sense in terms of a projected ramp many months ago. I don't know a whole lot about the process of car manufacturing, but how much discussion at the company 9 - 12 months ago would have been required to decide to ramp more slowly as they are now going to do? Why wouldn't they have figured this out even just 2 months ago? The sudden change in guidance from their stance in November is what bothers me. I've got to pay way more attention to projections from ultra conservative contributors like Al and DaveT, as well as analysts who seem even crazy conservative, such as Adam Jonas and Gene Munster. These guys know Tesla very very well.

That’s the thing that gets to me. Even if they guided realistically previously. The market might have been able to take the news well. But it’s this constant pushback that keeps slapping us believers in the face and slowly eroding our patience.

 

[myusername]

That’s the thing that gets to me. Even if they guided realistically previously. The market might have been able to take the news well. But it’s this constant pushback that keeps slapping us believers in the face and slowly eroding our patience.

when they guided for 200k to 100k in 2017 and pulled forward 2018-2020 the date was May 2016... they were about to announce the acquisition of SolarCity and sell stock to raise money. the stock was trading at $210 off the high of the ridiculous reversal from $150... the story needed to be pumped up to reverse the downtrend and convince potential buyers and current investors that the M3 was coming fast... and they kept telling that story all the way through July 2017 where they then raised cash again.

they got SolarCity... they got multiple cash raises in various ways... and now here we are. so in the end, it was a net gain for the company to just spin up the story.

 

[Drax7]

It seems Elon is being purposely conservative in his projections in order to avoid further disappointment
Its a complex operation getting 500 plus robots to work in harmony, even when there are no glitches
such as those encountered in the battery pack assembly. Furthermore getting the supply chain in harmony
adds to the complexity. So robotic harmony plus supply chain sync magnifies the problem. Try
getting your head around that.

However , something good always happens, so no need to despair.

 

[jeewee3000]

Premarket is showing us down about 11 points. I don't really have any dry powder at this point without further reducing my allocation to other investments. If we drop quite a bit, I will probably do just that though. It usually makes sense to wait until at least day 3 or 4 on a drop to avoid getting in too early. I don't think this situation will buck that trend. I'm going to watch and wait. Any good reasons that others expect a rapid bounce this time around?

Some would argue that the expected slower ramp was partly priced in before yesterdays anouncement, so that we will only see a limited drop. Knowing the volatility of TSLA, all bets are off though. I'd just say it's safe to assume that below 300 there will be a lot of buying pressure, and 280 would provide very solid support.

Not an advice of course.

 

[bdy0627]

Some would argue that the expected slower ramp was partly priced in before yesterdays anouncement, so that we will only see a limited drop. Knowing the volatility of TSLA, all bets are off though. I'd just say it's safe to assume that below 300 there will be a lot of buying pressure, and 280 would provide very solid support.

Not an advice of course.

I think the rather big change in ramp guidance for Q1 and Q2 was not entirely expected by the market. Everything else, I believe, was basically already priced in.

 

[ggr]

Mod: 3 posts gone to snippiness, a few deleted. Hoping for civil discourse. --ggr

 

[avoigt]

Tesla is chosen to build another big battery in Australia after the first one proves impressive

 

[MitchJi]

Probably going to have to roll 20 Put contracts I sold for mid-Jan.

6 months off on your original prediction, and 3 months off on the prediction you gave less than 3 months ago? Really? Thanks Elon....

Take responsibility for your own Options sales and purchases!

 

[schonelucht]

That’s the thing that gets to me. Even if they guided realistically previously. The market might have been able to take the news well. But it’s this constant pushback that keeps slapping us believers in the face and slowly eroding our patience.

On the other hand, I now believe the run up in July/August/September from $300 to $385 was based on that very optimistic reiteration of the ramp. If they had given current guidance back then, we might just have seen sidewise movement over the last 6 months ending us at approximately the same position as we are in right now?

 

[Richgoogol]

On the other hand, I now believe the run up in July/August/September from $300 to $385 was based on that very optimistic reiteration of the ramp. If they had given current guidance back then, we might just have seen sidewise movement over the last 6 months ending us at approximately the same position as we are in right now?

Well, that could very well be the case, but it's hard to believe TSLA will have sidewise movement for a period of 6 months. I honestly believe that if Elon had set a more realistic goal, the market would have taken it badly at first then slowly come back to a higher range than we are currently at. And with this quarter's delivery news, with s and x beat estimates and on par 3 ramp would have been well received and SP would have shot up.

 

[Starno]

Buy the dip