TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

So what are the shorts actually hoping for, that M3 production doesn't ramp fast enough, Tesla run out of cash and have to go to markets, but then get refused? Is that it? Is there anything else?

Or is it just a bunch of rich haters throwing money into a burning pit?

 

[K_Dizzle]

So what are the shorts actually hoping for, that M3 production doesn't ramp fast enough, Tesla run out of cash and have to go to markets, but then get refused? Is that it? Is there anything else?

Or is it just a bunch of rich haters throwing money into a burning pit?

I think they’re hoping for bankwuptcy

 

[bdy0627]

What calls are you looking at? I would like to take advantage of the leverage but I’m afraid of a further macro slide

I'm spreading them out due to the short term risk but still very aggressive. Here's what I'm buying:
JUN15 $300
SEP21 $350
JAN18 2019 $300

If we drop further, I will sell more of my shares to buy these. If we get down to $250 again, I will be all out of shares to convert and will then sell other stocks to buy more. TSLA has a habit of coming up rapidly when it reverses. That's primarily why I want the June calls right now. After a reversal and climb up to resistance, I have been selling my June calls and buying shares. This approach has allowed me to make a little profit even though the stock has gone down quite a bit over the last few months. If it actually goes on a run back up to $320+, this will work out well. If the market really crashes, this will not do well.

 

[bdy0627]

It must be a little frustrating for a TSLA short today. They are probably shocked that TSLA is holding up like it is today. That should be a warning sign.

 

[Causalien]

Interesting that the short interest is higher than ever.

Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?

If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.

Judging from past ER. The elevated short interest and the sudden inflood of short posters on this forum is usually justified.

Chances are, they have a copy of the financial statements before it is released and can justifiy the spending on media.

Wouldn't be surprised either since near the end of the quarter, tesla was pushing for a big jump in production and capex was probably elevated while the profit has not been registered yet. Anyone looking at the balance sheet will say Shiiiiiiii.

But now, 1 month later, what is the production rate? If you project that to this quarter's numbers. Will it look rosy. Their propaganda will probably say how much tesla burnt through in q1 and how much loss they are taking per car. Hence if they start delivering 5x more cars they will go bankwupt 5x sooner. Which according to tesla's cash reserves, 5x sooner is now.

 

[yngwie_2012]

Judging from past ER. The elevated short interest and the sudden inflood of short posters on this forum is usually justified.

Chances are, they have a copy of the financial statements before it is released and can justifiy the spending on media.

Wouldn't be surprised either since near the end of the quarter, tesla was pushing for a big jump in production and capex was probably elevated while the profit has not been registered yet. Anyone looking at the balance sheet will say Shiiiiiiii.

But now, 1 month later, what is the production rate? If you project that to this quarter's numbers. Will it look rosy. Their propaganda will probably say how much tesla burnt through in q1 and how much loss they are taking per car. Hence if they start delivering 5x more cars they will go bankwupt 5x sooner. Which according to tesla's cash reserves, 5x sooner is now.

If Tesla stays above 280 today, then we nailed it

 

[defc0n]

Macros are being a bit unreasonable. Earnings are good and beating estimates, yet S&P drops 1.5%+ today due to 3% treasury yield fears. Everyone and their mother saw that coming. Rates are actually approaching a healthy level for once and have been too low for quite some time. As long as S&P stays above 2580, I'm still not scared.

 

[Tenable]

I've entered a large number of short term calls. May, June, September, J19.

 

[gene]

It must be a little frustrating for a TSLA short today. They are probably shocked that TSLA is holding up like it is today. That should be a warning sign.

The paid trolls are out in force on Elektrek at the moment.

 

[defc0n]

I'm predicting a pretty hard sell off followed by a bounce back up fairly quickly. Looking for a ~ $272 bottom, worse case of ~ $260. I'd be surprised if it dropped further than that.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm predicting a pretty hard sell off followed by a bounce back up fairly quickly. Looking for a ~ $272 bottom, worse case of ~ $260. I'd be surprised if it dropped further than that.

time frame? pre or post earnings?

 

[Drax7]

They are hoping that at best they will breakeven and have a p/e of 12
A Delorean, Musk arrested at airport with Kanye

 

[Iceman]

This is pretty wild.... snap taken @ 57 minutes to market close.

 

[elasalle]

So are the parking lots starting to fill up or what? Nice hike on a bad macro day ..

 

[rocketlow49]

This is pretty wild.... snap taken @ 57 minutes to market close.

View attachment 296443

Wow Cat.... Outlook not looking good for the year...

 

[Todd Burch]

So are the parking lots starting to fill up or what? Nice hike on a bad macro day ..

 

[phil0909]

So what are the shorts actually hoping for, that M3 production doesn't ramp fast enough, Tesla run out of cash and have to go to markets, but then get refused? Is that it? Is there anything else?

Or is it just a bunch of rich haters throwing money into a burning pit?

The shorts are now hoping that Model 3 production ramps up quickly. This will expose the 'fact' that Tesla loses money (or makes precious little) on the Model 3 - particularly the $36,000 base model - thereby throwing a giant monkey wrench into Tesla's "profitable growth is coming soon" story.

 

[jelloslug]

The shorts are now hoping that Model 3 production ramps up quickly. This will expose the 'fact' that Tesla loses money (or makes precious little) on the Model 3 - particularly the $36,000 base model - thereby throwing a giant monkey wrench into Tesla's "profitable growth is coming soon" story.

I have said it before, for a short:
Making cars is bad
Not making cars is bad

 

[SteveG3]

Maybe it is simply the Kochs, a few oil companies, and a few legacy auto makers all jumping in as shorts. Losing some money on a short gamble to them wouldn't matter as long as they keep Tesla from succeeding.

Yes. This is a very real possibility.

Tesla has been among the very highest shorted stocks, if not the highest, since I started following the stock closely 6 years ago. There was no short-squeeze in 2013. Sure, some short covering, but I don't think the shares short ever went much below 25 million (from I believe about 32 million), or about 18-20% of the float at the low, which is an enormous short-position.

Not suggesting there aren't typical short positions going on with Tesla, but, as I've said here for years, I think there's a quite a reasonable chance that there is an underlying baseline long-term short position, probably about 20 million shares, that is an investment in stretching out the fossil fuel/ICE transport system. "Losing" $15 to $20 billion over 5-10 years on TSLA is a drop in the bucket compared to giving Tesla a black eye, slowing down its growth, offering substantial cover to incumbents kicking down the road the conversion from ICE to EVs, and in so doing, keeping the fossil fuel/ICE cash machine running near full tilt for several extra years.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Looks like strong defense around the $284 bottom yesterday and today. Hope this OS call is materializing