TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Mader Levap]

I dunno why you all are upset. When Elon predicted short burn previously, it happened during year-long timespan where stock value grew 4-fold. So, buy and hold, it will take a while.

I do not take any responsibility for anyone following this not-an-advice.

 

[ggr]

Feel like it would have been better had Tesla released the 10-K only tomorrow. Let the market simmer a bit on the 7000 news and then release hard numbers only tomorrow. On the other hand, this is not the first time that Tesla reacts counterintuitively. If we are honest there were quite a few times when the 10-K was plain bad and we still went up. So I guess it was to be expected that we'd eventually see this turn against us.

The 10-Q gets filed at the same time as the quarterly report (or up to a couple of days later) so we won't see it until probably (based on recent past timing) the evening of August 2nd.

 

[schonelucht]

The 10-Q gets filed at the same time as the quarterly report (or up to a couple of days later) so we won't see it until probably (based on recent past timing) the evening of August 2nd.

Sorry for the confusion. Meant 8-K with the quarterly sales numbers. Not 10-K. My bad.

 

[Irishjugg]

Reality was 18,440 Models 3 delivered in Q2. You're confusing 'produced' with 'delivered'.

So, Model 3 deliveries for the quarter were far below consensus.

The consensus was idiotic. The consensus ignores the 200k limit.
The consensus assumed immediate delivery of everything produced.

The analysts that form the consensus are straight horrible at what they do

 

[Reality]

The 10-K gets filed at the same time as the quarterly report (or up to a couple of days later) so we won't see it until probably (based on recent past timing) the evening of August 2nd.

No, again, that is a 10-Q


neither of those are 10-K's



8-K --> disclosure of a material event, very broad use (ie exec leaving)

10-Q --> quarterly reporting required to the SEC, requires a limited audit and has GAAS guidance associated

10-K --> The big boy, the annual review that includes a full audit and opinion on all material representations and controls, issued once per year.

 

[Reality]

Sorry for the confusion. Meant 8-K with the quarterly sales numbers. Not 10-K. My bad.

your good, just wrote it a bunch and i was getting annoyed because your posts are usually solid


edit: and now i just realized you responded to ggr who called the Q a 10-K
Mod: corrected above too; I knew better but was fixated on "K". --ggr.

 

[Quassinoid]

Today may have been a tough day to swallow for Longs, but here's my 0.02 worth. Tesla and EM spoke yesterday, the shorts and bears have spoken today, but we haven't heard yet from some of the big Tesla Bulls and investors yet. Certainly, they will be out in force over the next few weeks to put their spin on the situation. Also, I think over the next several months, EM will be showering the market with so much positive news with his tweets, the shorts will struggle to come up for air. And if the FUDsters won't listen to facts and face reality, there's always the flame thrower (or not).

 

[hoang51]

last week:
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

then last night;
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Unfortunately, I don't read this thread from start to finish every day. I think I should do that more often to catch any bounces and traps.

 

[jhm]

Today may have been a tough day to swallow for Longs, but here's my 0.02 worth. Tesla and EM spoke yesterday, the shorts and bears have spoken today, but we haven't heard yet from some of the big Tesla Bulls and investors yet. Certainly, they will be out in force over the next few weeks to put their spin on the situation. Also, I think over the next several months, EM will be showering the market with so much positive news with his tweets, the shorts will struggle to come up for air. And if the FUDsters won't listen to facts and face reality, there's always the flame thrower (or not).

More rainbow colored unicorn farts perhaps?

 

[brian45011]

Trip could've handled things a lot better but... all good.

Trip rocks! Without faith, there can be no belief

 

[Rarity]

not sure you are reading this right

Am eager to be educated. Looks to me like a net ~400,000 shares were taken off the market from pre-market through the morning to be reserved for selling short (leaving aside folks removing their shares from the pool and adding their shares to it).

In the afternoon, there wasn't much more ammo available at this fee.

 

[kbM3]

I dunno why you all are upset. When Elon predicted short burn previously, it happened during year-long timespan where stock value grew 4-fold. So, buy and hold, it will take a while.

I do not take any responsibility for anyone following this not-an-advice.

Elon said shorts position will explode this coming weekend.

I’m still holding some hope there is a major announcement. It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

 

[Chartered321]

Hey everyone, yeah difficult day for the bulls today. Basically what happened is that profitability and positive FCF have been delayed 1+ months because of the tent kinda thing. Temporary solutions can be cool for festivals or burning some marshmallows while drinking whiskey but they are not a nice investment case. What we need is sustainable 7-8k weekly M3 production rate. Until we can't be sure of that manipulation will drive the stock price. That's what big guys with firepower will keep on doing. Fundamentals drive the market, technical analysis is pure fiction, and some special agent here should stop fooling people and consider going back to school. I stay long and 100% stock only TSLA. Cheerio

 

[brian45011]

He has been gone since May.

So who replaced Mr. Field as a Section 16 Officer?

"Unlike most corporations of its size, Tesla only has a handful of c-suite executives and now it has lost a second one this year as Electrek learns that Tesla let go Gary Clark, its Chief Information Officer. "

Tesla’s Chief Information Officer leaves the automaker as part of reorganization

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

They will jump all over Fields leaving even though it was obvious back in May that he was out for good.

It wasn't obvious. I was ripped a new one, here in this forum, for suggesting that possibility (that he will be gone).

 

[Skryll]

Interesting how the aftermarket stock price looks so flatlined at 335.5 right after the close...

 

[jhm]

Found on internet:

 

[bdy0627]

I am curious if a lot of people here move in and out a lot. I rarely restructure (i added a few Aug18 way OTM Puts recently but that was less than .1% of my position), but I imagine there might be a few good arguments for rotating through the stock if you had a good thesis as to why.

Core - No
Trading Shares - Definitely

 

[avoigt]

If we eliminate the today noise and pretend not to have followed the stock move we truly can say this has been just a great day for Tesla.

All numbers are much better than expected and the outlook confirms that all will be even better in the future. Also having over-achieved what has been promised before is a testimony of credibility to all who claimed Elon makes empty promises and never keep the due dates.

Tesla is now able to fund the operation and further growth organically and this independency from the market is a big benefit.

Its a while ago in a similar situation that I said that Elon has a plan for everything and my view is that he did not make the short squeeze twitter out of an emotion but intentionally. He declared war against shorts, the media and most analysts. In my opinion he does know very well that this are not powerless forces. All of them are determined, eager and some hopefully already desperate to bring Tesla down. The harder they try the closer they might be to surrender.

Elon is surrounded with very smart people and I don't believe he is naive in what he is trying to achieve here. Lets not forget the greater goal he works for which is his colonization of Mars. To achieve that he need the SP raising and certainly thought very well through how to make that happen. Its the same what he did when he wrote Master Plan 1 and 2 all all he wrote came true and was lined out well.

We cannot exclude that he thought the announcement of 5k/w will initiate the short squeeze already and solely but my view is that he did anticipate that the shorts will do what they can to bring the SP down again. Its too much to loose and money seems not to be a restriction for them. Maybe he does try to create a shortage of available stocks which is in my view given that situation a possibility. With every stock the shorts sell they move closer to that squeeze. So creating a situation where they sell what they have makes them vulnerable.

I do not know what Elons plan is but convinced he has one to achieve his greater goal and that includes bringing the stock price up to new levels. The today release is one corner stone but more than that is required and likely to come.

 

[evp]

Doubt the cars are built with a fully charged battery.

A funny side note here: when I got a brand new VW car of my company I had to pick it up from the dealer with mostly no gasoline left.

Irony: When I got my Volkswagen (many years ago), the salesman had me drive it over to the gas station so he could fill it up.
OTOH, when I picked up the Tesla it was only half charged. I immediately picked up my parents and drove up into the mountains for a picnic and to observe the aspen changing colors. When I saw how quickly the charge was going down, I was concerned. (Of course we gained close to 4000 ft altitude, that would explain it.) Fortunately it was a short drive to Silverthorne where we charged, had the picnic, and got back home with plenty of charge.