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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'd like to remind everyone that there was a bear raid last July 4th weekend and so I predicted another bear raid this July 4th weekend, and that it is playing out exactly as I predicted. If I had dry powder, I would be buying more. (I do not.)
Me neither....my lemonade stand/garage sale did not net much o_O
 
imho shorts are already successful because they keep slowing down tsla's growth projection. Imagine tsla is private and without the obligation to satiate the silly short term demands by the "market", it does not need to show short term profits thus no need to slow down investment. The production/market share in 3 years frame will be much higher than the current projection.
 
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I think his theory isn't very convincing. As a short one may argue that it's not us, that is trying to starve Teslas access to the capital markets, but Tesla starved it by themselves. You simply can't announce capex of 3+ billion for 2018 with 3.3 billion liquidity on hand, when you know you need 1 billion or so in cash reserves and are not 110%, sure that you'll end the year with a full-year net profit. How is that supposed to work without further reduction of CapEx? Yes, you can reduce CapEx spending, but that slows down your future growth prospects. If your future growth prospects had already been priced in, this may reduce your stock price, which makes a capital raise more expensive, so you can raise less, which slows your future ... the point is: Reflexivity theorie works in both directions.

If you are living in the best of all times (plenty of money searching for investments, low interest rates, first to sell luxury goods in a trending EV market, automotive cycle running longer than usual, subsidised in all major markets) and your company goes broke because a single capital raise goes wrong or you can't repay a certain bond, you company was overleveraged to the teeth. In such a case it's not the fault of some shorts. If your company has a fundamentally sound business, most shorts will simply disappear, since there's no money to be made. If shorts are spreading provable lies, sue them. it may take quite some time until a decision is made, but it's a pretty strong point to make.
The point you raised (highlighted) is only true if Tesla is fundamentally not profitable. Otherwise there is a level of expansion that can be organically supported by profit from existing products. This is the case that Tesla is trying to prove in Q3 2018 - Q1 2019. We will see soon enough.

Personally I think Tesla has enough innovation lead on their competitors, that even their organic growth rate will be high enough for them to be a very good investment going forward. If the capital market is friendly in 2019 based on their M3 results, their growth will be spectacular in the next 5 years.
 
imho shorts are already successful because they keep slowing down tsla's growth projection. Imagine tsla is private and without the obligation to satiate the silly short term demands by the "market", it does not need to show short term profits thus no need to slow down investment. The production/market share in 3 years frame will be much higher than the current projection.
I'm not sure if Tesla could've gotten all their stock-based capital from a private raise.
 
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BTW, do you notice how low-volume this discussion thread is today? *Same reason market trading is low-volume* on this market half-day before the holiday. It creates a big opportunity for short-sellers to engage in mischief. I expect them to continue on Thursday and Friday.

When everyone comes back to work on Monday, we'll see what we saw last year. The stock started crawling up again and was back at all-time-highs by September.
 
This is pretty much a repeat of shorts running the show like last 4th of July week. We dropped big, then gapped down the next 2 days. The difference this time is we are not coming from ATH. It doesn't seem likely that the stock will run up much until next week, so probably no urgency to add right now. This will probably consolidate this week once it bottoms. I think Friday may be the time to add calls.
 
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