TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SW2Fiddler]

looks very good Do It.

couple of thoughts...

did CNBC refer to Tripp as a whistle blower? if so, might want to point out that he is a self-proclaimed whistle blower, has no such legal status, and to refer to him as such is quite misleading. Tesla refers to him as a saboteur... somehow CNBC does not, lols.

If there is a single phrase that marks the High Tide of Peak FUD, it may turn out to be three words repeated in this piece...

...“Poor Jim Chanos!”

 

[JRP3]

The way I look at it is that I have stopped counting on the number of Model 3s I see each and every day because there really is no point anymore.

And I’ve stopped looking at panel gaps because the last 5-10 cars I pulled up next to and checked out have all been perfect.

And I’ve stopped asking people how they like their Model 3s because every single one will go on about how awesome it is, and same for their surprised spouses.

Now multiply that by thousands per week and imagine what the narrative will be in a few months

And here in the Northeast I've yet to see a Model 3 in person.

 

[Krugerrand]

It's not refundable after the order is matched to a vehicle. as @tivoboy stated.
See post 18992 in this thread.
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Yes, but I was just saying that’s not how it’s being ‘reported’ by the media.

 

[Krugerrand]

All the points you made re defensive moves by Tesla re suppliers, and,

Tesla lawsuit with German supplier for Model X re events during its very rough ramp, and likely some games played re Model 3 ramp by some suppliers Elon was smart enough to know he'd be hammered if he'd named in the midst of trying to fix the Mod3 ramp- yes, I think this is at least a real issue in the sense that Tesla considers it necessary to factor this possibility into their strategies, even if what actually goes on may not be so easy to establish to take it public, let alone pursue legally.

I don’t think his not naming had anything to do with a defensive play etc... That’s just how he rolls. He never named the manufacturer of that steel frame?/bar?/whateveritwas that caused the Falcon9 to go kablooey.

Being vertically integrated was what he wanted to do all along because it’s more efficient and provides more control to iterate.

He didn’t want to go public but had to. I suspect he never really wanted to go to the capital markets either but had to.

Basically, I think it’s mostly been just good fortune and Elon’s wanting to do things differently that has provided Tesla a certain amount of protection against these particular thieves and bandits rather than a specific defensive strategy. Going forward, now that he’s been made aware, he might make defensive movements but I really think he’ll be more likely to go on the offensive like he has with the media. Trying to hurt his company has always gotten Elon’s attention and not in a good way.

 

[30seconds]

Speaking of twitter this is interesting.

Scroll down for the chart but the commentary is actually interesting

skabooshka on Twitter

 

[mershaw2001]

Speaking of twitter this is interesting.

Scroll down for the chart but the commentary is actually interesting

skabooshka on Twitter

Assuming that chart is accurate, I think we might be able to interpret something about the pipeline. For the most part in the last week of june they were averaging between 450 and 850, maybe about 715 on average.

However, on July 1 it might be reasonable to assume that they anticipate a break and so stop producing new cars the night before. Therefore, the 370 that were built on July 1st were just the results of the pipeline emptying. All cars in the pipeline were finished.

On july 5th the pipeline is opened up, the pipeline fills back up, and 150 cars make it through.

As for conclusions, I'm not sure what to draw from that beyond the above.

 

[MP3Mike]

Assuming that chart is accurate, I think we might be able to interpret something about the pipeline. For the most part in the last week of june they were averaging between 450 and 850, maybe about 715 on average.

We know that it isn't 100% accurate since the last 7 days in June add up to less than 5,000... But it is very close.

 

[shootformoon]

Assuming that chart is accurate, I think we might be able to interpret something about the pipeline. For the most part in the last week of june they were averaging between 450 and 850, maybe about 715 on average.

However, on July 1 it might be reasonable to assume that they anticipate a break and so stop producing new cars the night before. Therefore, the 370 that were built on July 1st were just the results of the pipeline emptying. All cars in the pipeline were finished.

On july 5th the pipeline is opened up, the pipeline fills back up, and 150 cars make it through.

As for conclusions, I'm not sure what to draw from that beyond the above.

That guys is a tsla short. If you check his previous twitters you will find so much bullshit that I would not take his numbers seriously.

 

[mershaw2001]

We know that it isn't 100% accurate since the last 7 days in June add up to less than 5,000... But it is very close.

Am I wrong in remembering that they did 5000 in the morning of july 1st at 5am? There was so much mis-information floating around.
This guy's numbers in the last week add up to to 4970 and I could imagine that being reasonably close. They are pulled from a white board in the factory so I'd think there might be a little deviation from the actual production.

 

[schonelucht]

Also, @Troy uses a totally different method of estimating production and also comes to the same conclusion that throughput is not yet back to the levels beforehand. And finally it makes sense. They had a shut down early this week and it takes time for output to climb back to full capacity. All in all, the numbers seem plausable.

 

[Off Shore]

what does that mean?
where’s the chart and analysis?

Shhh...

 

[avoigt]

1. 

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @StarFire2258

"You’re right on both counts. Most houses in Flint have safe water, but they’ve lost faith in govt test results. Some houses are still outliers. Will organize a weekend in Flint to add filters to those houses with issues & hopefully fix perception of those that are actually good."

Tony Stark is flying again or should I say Superman?

After Puerto Rico and the Thai Soccer team we have now a city suffering from unhealthy water being helped. Looks like every day a new episode appears....

Seriously I believe a pattern is visible here.

We all know that Elon has a truly good heard and wants to help people but his behaviors is vastly different from any other Billionaire or person with influence that normally just donate some money to a charity. He puts some of his best engineers on tricky issues and they try to fix the problem and if they can implement it. We all can only applaud.

Why is Elon doing this? Beside that I believe he truly feels with people who are in a miserable situation he is doing good and talks about it with his Twitter followers quite frequently. The latter helps to make a statement about Tesla as well as himself.

People don't really listen when he talks about transforming to sustainable energy generation and transformation as they have heard this too often from politicians who use this words to get some more voters.

Doing good and talking about it can help very much to mobilize people and make them invest emotionally in his mission. That again will help to influence the public opinion about the Billionaire Ellon who "just wants to get darn rich and fly to Mars with his own rockets".

This is an important attempt to get the public opinion on his side and I hope he will succeed.

Its like with buying a Tesla, somehow it makes more and more financial sense and is a great fun car to drive too but if it does also give you the good gut feel to do something truly good its more easy to decide for it. The same does apply to an investment in Tesla as a public traded company.

Everybody from us bulls and Tesla drivers is already, if you want it or not, an ambassador for Teslas mission. The more we are the more likely the transformation will go fast instead of slow.

 

[uselesslogin]

It looks like we have confirmation the 200,000 threshold was hit or will be hit shortly and the full credit will be available until the end of the year. (Seen on Reddit btw)

Electric Vehicle Incentives

 

[Causalien]

I took a moment to think about the comparison to Enron and Theranos. It bothered meso I thought there might be merit.

Theranos never actually released the product that worked. Results were fudged with traditional induatrial machines. Tesla's products are actually in customer's hands and getting dissected by other auto manufacturer. So the product is real, claimed cost is right. Hence tesla is not theranos.

Enron is accounting fraud of false profit. Tesla isn't really hiding how much money they are burning and we can estimate that the revenue is in line with cars sold. What woukd make tesla an Enron will be if they report positive earnings in the past years.

So I've concluded that these talking poibts are actually paid hit pieces. If these award winning joirnalist can't reason it out lije this, then they are either idiots or getting paid to ignore reason

 

[Todd Burch]

Exactly. You wouldn’t risk prison to say “we’re not quite profitable yet.”

Some folks be dumb. Some journalists can’t journ.

 

[neroden]

Looks like we will have more of the tripp story to look forward to this week...
Ex-Tesla Worker Escalates Legal Battle by Blowing Whistle to SEC

Soooo, I don't think Tripp realizes that most of Tesla's excessively redundant safety features in their battery packs are not legally mandated and that every other manufacturer doesn't have any of them. So Tesla's not required to have them at all. If due to occasional manufacturing error, two cells are close enough together that one going into thermal runaway could ignite its neighbor... well, everyone else is using giant bricks of battery which can all ignite each other, so everyone else's cars are less safe. Tesla never promised that every single cell would be completely thermally isolated in all cars forever, so this simply isn't an issue.

His claims of massively overstated production are ludicrous given that he wasn't even in a position to see production at Fremont, and the production rate matches up with the (verifiable) deliveries rate.

We'll see whether the SEC decides to waste time on this or not. Hope not.

 

[neroden]

Shortvolume.com, volumebot.com, and similar chart sites get their data from FINRA, a private organization tasked with collecting and distributing important data derived from daily trading. I called FINRA and spoke with a knowledgable representative. I specifically asked why their total volume is considerably lower than the NASDAQ-reported volume for TSLA every day. He said that FINRA does not gather information from all exchanges when collecting short percentage of selling information. Instead, it uses a large sample (about 50%) of total trading and then looks to see which of the selling transactions is tagged as "short" on the ticker report. Not all transactions get reported on the ticker. For example, a brokerage might initially offer shares to short from its own supply and then later in the day do another trade to replace the lent shares, and these two transactions would be listed as a single transaction on the ticker. Thus, the process is imperfect but it is the best approximation we have. Yes, the total shares included in the FINRA data is about half of the total shares traded that day but the shares tagged as "short" is also about half of what likely occurs, so I continue to believe the reported percentages are reasonably accurate.

All right. Sounds like fintel is using incompatible data sources.

 

[neroden]

yes i though about this after posting.
i think you are correct... i will remove. it was from my friends B.B. terminal, which is most likely not allowed. apologies.

Yeah, safer to remove it. Though I doubt Bloomberg will ever bother us for talking about the information (as opposed to screenshotting it), because they have Bloomberg terminals in libraries with universal public access, so anyone can see the information. The business model for Bloomberg terminal subscriptions is mostly about getting the information before anyone else, so if you're providing outdated information they generally don't care.

 

[neroden]

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Replying to @DylanSheaMusic


"Please consider this a commitment that I will fund fixing the water in any house in Flint that has water contamination above FDA levels. No kidding."

Elon Musk on Twitter

A bunch of people are asking what this commitment means exactly, so I tweeted a request for clarification. The EPA limit is 15 ppb lead and the FDA limit for bottled water is 5 ppb lead. I think Musk really means the FDA limit, so he's going to fix houses which the government has no obligation to fix. But I asked him to verify!

 

[neroden]

And here in the Northeast I've yet to see a Model 3 in person.

Come on, you didn't go to the Ithaca Festival parade? There is one in town, and it was towed on a trailer behind a Model X, just to show off. We're socially connected to its owner. Guess we have to organize another local Tesla meetup so you can see it...