TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gringotuanis]

That's hilarious. Same illogical arguments, different day, heck they even kept their 40 percent drop and $180ish price target. I have decided I'd really like the SEC to investigate the banks and how their analysts publish information. There has to be money being made (or back scratching by major shorts?) by trying to manipulate the stock price like they do. He had to spread some FUD after that great review of the M3 yesterday. Have no fear TSLA longs....my guess is Q2 might be a bit rough coming up but you can't fight demand like this long term. Several of the shorts on Twitter are out counting parking lot vehicles in Lathrop trying to figure out what Tesla is up to...like Tesla is hiding millions of salvage vehicles...looks like desperation is creeping in...good bye shorts!

Ignore that Andrea James quote that always an error. I'm focusing on the latest fake analyst report.

 

[jelloslug]

That's hilarious. Same illogical arguments, different day, heck they even kept their 40 percent drop and $180ish price target. I have decided I'd really like the SEC to investigate the banks and how their analysts publish information. There has to be money being made (or back scratching by major shorts?) by trying to manipulate the stock price like they do. He had to spread some FUD after that great review of the M3 yesterday. Have no fear TSLA longs....my guess is Q2 might be a bit rough coming up but you can't fight demand like this long term. Several of the shorts on Twitter are out counting parking lot vehicles in Lathrop trying to figure out what Tesla is up to...like Tesla is hiding millions of salvage vehicles...looks like desperation is creeping in...good bye shorts!

The best part is that his suggestions for TSLA will have netted you a -18.8% rate of return.

 

[gringotuanis]

The best part is that his suggestions for TSLA will have netted you a -18.8% rate of return.

Oh yeah, let's just say I'm way up over -18.8 percent on much of my Tesla stock....started buying in 2014.

 

[Mkorpal]

Now that I'm looking at it, why in the hell would anyone actually consider purchasing the I3. It's as expensive as a long range Telsa Model 3, has 1/3rd the range, way slower, no charging support, it look like it was designed by a 5 year old, and it's probably even harder to get.

Like, you have to be flat out stupid to buy one. It may be the single worst car on entire market today.

 

[mekberg]

Now that I'm looking at it, why in the hell would anyone actually consider purchasing the I3. It's as expensive as a long range Telsa Model 3, has 1/3rd the range, way slower, no charging support, it look like it was designed by a 5 year old, and it's probably even harder to get.

Like, you have to be flat out stupid to buy one. It may be the single worst car on entire market today.

Yet someone at my company showed up with one a couple of months ago. At the time, 3 of us had Model 3s on order. We curiously asked why he chose the i3 and if he had cross shopped any other cars. His reply was something to the effect of, "I wanted a BMW and electric car so I can charge for free at work. Didn't cross shop anything. Just walked in and bought it off the lot."

 

[jhm]

Two-thirds of Aussie drivers will own an EV by 2028, Jaguar says
Aussie appetite for EVs is growing faster than EV production! Those wanting BEVs rose from 26.5% in May 2015 to 36.2% May 2018. The gain of 10 points was nowhere matched with gains in actual sales. Consumer interest is building while supply lags behind. This is market research from Jaguar.

 

[Big Earl]

One of these day's I'll actually go out and buy one of these cheaper EVs that everyone keep talking about. Maybe a Ford Fake, or a Chevy Phantom. I have also heard good things about the Honda Vaporware and the BMW IDK-LOL-ROFL.

Ford Fake, going on sale April 1, 2019! Watch out, Tesla!

I added a little today at $315.50, which probably explains why it's continuing to go down.

 

[EinSV]

Two-thirds of Aussie drivers will own an EV by 2028, Jaguar says
Aussie appetite for EVs is growing faster than EV production! Those wanting BEVs rose from 26.5% in May 2015 to 36.2% May 2018. The gain of 10 points was nowhere matched with gains in actual sales. Consumer interest is building while supply lags behind. This is market research from Jaguar.

They are also going gaga for solar, wind and storage. With a little luck and some help on the policy front, Australia could go quickly from laggard to leader in clean energy and transportation.

 

[Ugliest1]

Now that I'm looking at it, why in the hell would anyone actually consider purchasing the I3. It's as expensive as a long range Telsa Model 3, has 1/3rd the range, way slower, no charging support, it look like it was designed by a 5 year old, and it's probably even harder to get.

Like, you have to be flat out stupid to buy one. It may be the single worst car on entire market today.

I'll have to disagree with this. I know several people who bought the i3 over the past 3-4 years. For several, it was because the Model 3 wasn't available and wasn't even on the drawing board. Some just trust the brand. ALL love their cars. My nephew just bought one for his bakery business, because he wanted to get into an EV, wanted to get into an EV NOW!! (his likely wait for a 3 was a year for short range few options), and the i3 met his relatively short daily range requirements.

And IMO the i3 is still WAAAAAAAAAY better than most of the ICEs out there, especially those in similar price ranges.

However, once Tesla gets the backlog down and you can order any version you want and receive it in 1-3 months, yeah, then I'd agree why even consider anything else.

[EDIT: Just thought of a reason to consider others -- to go through the motions to actually prove to yourself you're getting 5-10x the car for comparable money. A "feel me good", if you will.]

 

[DragonWatch]

JP Morgan thinks Tesla will drop to $180 because other car companies will sell cheaper EVs: JP Morgan predicts Tesla shares will plunge more than 40% before the end of the year

This tactic has been successful in US Stock/Business models and most memorable, for me, was in the early days when fossil fuel competition heated up. I would site the names of corporations, but between brain farts, laughing gas and my self-imposed TMC timeout, I want to say JP Getty, but then I have been wrong before. My point is that competitors with deep pockets have been know to pull off such strategic moves of undercutting the competition.

Now, having said that, I go back to the deep seeded fundamentals I always rely on. What of those manufactures has a SuperCharging network? Did I say, NONE? The government is at the ready to handout cash to any of the competitors ~ right (okay, probably not "Not Today").

They all said once the market became saturated the Model S would drop off ~ hmm, sales have remained firm and grown since the very beginning. The Model X was in the same boat (did not know it could float ) Just like the Model S and X; the 3 has had a painful up tic, but it is still in high demand with no down turn in the near, mid or long term.

Yes, there have been reports of reservations dropping off, but there is absolutely no correlation to up tic of those reservations growing wings and becoming Model Ss or Xs ~ I could be wrong, but I do not recall any such talk. As someone said above, every Model 3 they see is a pre-ordered or reserved car. Then there is the long wait ~ how many of those wanting the Model 3 really needed a car sooner than expected? My dentist is one of them. They bought a car already, but kept their reservation. When I talked to her about getting off the dime, she and her husband came back with they just were not ready to jump in yet ~ for some unknown reason (definitely not the competition). A Model S owner I know is still holding onto his reservation, wanting to add to his fleet the smaller car and convert his S to an X. My reservation for the Model 3 was returned/refunded once we ordered our Model X. The money was not moved into the cost of the X, it was refunded ~ has anyone pointed that out in their FUD articles?

With all things Tesla/Elon they start with the big ticket items first or top down theory. Same with the Model 3, eventually they will get to the 35K version and be able to do it at massive numbers; therefore, the early higher price fills the void.

The recent article about Tesla producing cars inexpensively and selling at a higher margin is almost a no brainier for me. I have two furnaces at two different locations; one natural gas and one all electric, not to mention long lasting. The all electric model has fewer moving parts and less maintenance ~ no duuuuh.

There are so many fundamental points; I am sure you have more than me to point out.

Tesla is a game changer ~ even more-so than personal computers during my life time or the horse and buggy of my mother and fathers day.

Okay, it is probably time for me to go back into my self-imposed TMC timeout.

Remember this fundamental: it takes money to make money; especially for game changers!

 

[Mkorpal]

I'll have to disagree with this. I know several people who bought the i3 over the past 3-4 years. For several, it was because the Model 3 wasn't available and wasn't even on the drawing board. Some just trust the brand. ALL love their cars. My nephew just bought one for his bakery business, because he wanted to get into an EV, wanted to get into an EV NOW!! (his likely wait for a 3 was a year for short range few options), and the i3 met his relatively short daily range requirements.

And IMO the i3 is still WAAAAAAAAAY better than most of the ICEs out there, especially those in similar price ranges.

However, once Tesla gets the backlog down and you can order any version you want and receive it in 1-3 months, yeah, then I'd agree why even consider anything else.

[EDIT: Just thought of a reason to consider others -- to go through the motions to actually prove to yourself you're getting 5-10x the car for comparable money. A "feel me good", if you will.]

If you absolutely need a city car today, get a Leaf. More range, 15,000 less, Nissan actually wants to sell them, and somehow, some way, it actually looks better!!!!!

To make a terrible analogy, if you've never had pizza in your life and you walk into a Little Caesars, you may think it's the greatest thing ever. It doesn't change the fact that it is really terrible.

 

[X Yes?]

True, I cannot for the life of me understand how common sense eludes these bears.
I only wish I was articulate enough to frame this argument in such a way, that they could pull the wool outta their minds. Then, it comes to me, who cares what kind of life they choose to live?
If it wasn't for the simple fact that we have an entire segment of humans who are willing to fall for Proveable fake FUD.
Scary isn't it?

Chevy dealers hiding inventory on the roof!

Ryan on Twitter

Really? Tesla is build to order. They should have 0 inventory. Those Chevy units have been sold to the dealers. Better comparison is GM's profits vs. Tesla. That's an interesting comparison...

 

[Ugliest1]

Really? Tesla is build to order. They should have 0 inventory. Those units have been sold to the dealers. Better comparison is GM's profits vs. Tesla. That's an interesting comparison...

Disingenuous comment. No business can actually have 0 inventory; normal logistics without a Star Trek transporter demand temporary storage.

Just replying here so more BS is countered quickly. What was that phrase? "Demand FUD. Move on."

 

[Tslynk67]

If you absolutely need a city car today, get a Leaf. More range, 15,000 less, Nissan actually wants to sell them, and somehow, some way, it actually looks better!!!!!

To make a terrible analogy, if you've never had pizza in your life and you walk into a Little Caesars, you may think it's the greatest thing ever. It doesn't change the fact that it is really terrible.

Yeah, it's a bit bad when the Leaf looks better... Actually, the Ioniq is probably the best non-Tesla EV out there for the moment, that's quite OK looking and fairly spacious. Goo luck charging it when you go out-and-about, mind.

 

[X Yes?]

I added a little today at $315.50, which probably explains why it's continuing to go down.

Likely the Market is giving no credibility to Musk's Tweet about demand...

 

[Big Earl]

Really? Tesla is build to order. They should have 0 inventory. Those units have been sold to the dealers. Better comparison is GM's profits vs. Tesla. That's an interesting comparison...

That isn't exactly the case. For the Model 3, Tesla builds in batches and pairs vehicles with buyers later in the process. Build-to-order implies that a vehicle is built specifically for you from start to finish and the process doesn't start until you submit your order. S & X may be different.

 

[jelloslug]

I'll have to disagree with this. I know several people who bought the i3 over the past 3-4 years. For several, it was because the Model 3 wasn't available and wasn't even on the drawing board. Some just trust the brand. ALL love their cars. My nephew just bought one for his bakery business, because he wanted to get into an EV, wanted to get into an EV NOW!! (his likely wait for a 3 was a year for short range few options), and the i3 met his relatively short daily range requirements.

And IMO the i3 is still WAAAAAAAAAY better than most of the ICEs out there, especially those in similar price ranges.

However, once Tesla gets the backlog down and you can order any version you want and receive it in 1-3 months, yeah, then I'd agree why even consider anything else.

[EDIT: Just thought of a reason to consider others -- to go through the motions to actually prove to yourself you're getting 5-10x the car for comparable money. A "feel me good", if you will.]

I had an i3, it was a good car built poorly.

 

[scaesare]

Good chance he's right. That's what makes a market...

That seriously almost made me do a spit-take... (note to self: don't read bear posts after a sip of my beverage...)

Good grief... do you even realize what you are agreeing with?? He's talking about all of the competition by the end of the year.

It's 2/3rds the way through July for goodness sakes... please to be explaining all the competition that's going to materialize in the next 5 months?

I eagerly await this insight...

 

[Mkorpal]

That isn't exactly the case. For the Model 3, Tesla builds in batches and pairs vehicles with buyers later in the process. Build-to-order implies that a vehicle is built specifically for you from start to finish and the process doesn't start until you submit your order. S & X may be different.

I may be wrong, but I think S&X is also batch. Or at least a mix of batch and built to order.

 

[Mkorpal]

Yeah, it's a bit bad when the Leaf looks better... Actually, the Ioniq is probably the best non-Tesla EV out there for the moment, that's quite OK looking and fairly spacious. Goo luck charging it when you go out-and-about, mind.

I seem to forget the Ioniq exists. It's a solid, unassuming car.