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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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If the rumored car and car parts tariff happens,
how much effect will it have on Tesla ?

Do we know what percentages of car is made in Canada and Mexico ?

Model S and X is roughly 50% American/Canadian, 25% Mexican and 25% RoW.

Window-Sticker-1.jpg



Tesla-Model-X-window-sticker.png




Off the top of my head I know wheels, brakes, and some suspension parts are made in Mexico.



Model 3 is also 50% American/Canadian, 25% Mexican, and 25% RoW

tesla-model-3-long-range-window-sticker.jpg
 
This is a completely standard daily trading pattern for TSLA. If I were a day trader, which I am not, I could trade the pattern all year long, selling at open, buying an hour later at the mandatory morning dip, and then selling again in the afternoon.
I've noticed recently when there isn't a gap down that there is often an opening solid climb followed immediately by the usual aggressive dip. It's the opening climb before the dip that seems different than a few months ago.
 
We are seeing very positive reports from the media on the 3 Performance drives.

Unfortunately it seems that the Tesla team is really only giving them 30min drives out of the Santa Monica showroom. So Motortrend write up has them stuck in traffic, flat roads, etc.

A more thorough drive & report would be helpful to customers who maybe are waiting to decide P vs AWD as well as show off what an advance this car is to the world.

Seems like a good opportunity being wasted
 
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/cost...rises-on-growing-default-fears-20180724-00390

Still attacking bonds via CDS. Roughly speaking, one can short a bond by buying a credit default swap. The CDS spread is negatively correlated with the stock price. So as the stock price goes back up these will lose value.
Some quotes from the article:

"The CDS is saying that there are a lot of people betting this company is going out of business," said Thomas Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory." (Yep)

"The implied market probability of a default on Monday rose to 38.9 percent from 38.3 percent on Friday, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon. The probability of a default was 34.19 percent when the credit-default swap contract, the first and only referencing a Tesla bond, launched on June 27." (Presumably a function of lower cash reserves primarily)

"Compared to Monday's swoon in the bond price, the increased default probability seems low. That is explained, however, by the illiquid state of Tesla's CDS, which have had only one trader, Edward Koo at JPMorgan, regularly offering quotes on the swap, according to Reuters trading sources who requested anonymity because the quotes are not public."
 
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We are seeing very positive reports from the media on the 3 Performance drives.

Unfortunately it seems that the Tesla team is really only giving them 30min drives out of the Santa Monica showroom. So Motortrend write up has them stuck in traffic, flat roads, etc.

A more thorough drive & report would be helpful to customers who maybe are waiting to decide P vs AWD as well as show off what an advance this car is to the world.

Seems like a good opportunity being wasted

More important to get them in customers’ hands in my opinion. Their online reviews and word of mouth will be more honest and unbiased than publications that live off advertising from legacy auto.
 
Twitter going nuts about the shareholder lawsuit this morning:

Paul Huettner, CFA on Twitter

Sure looks like Tesla is admitting to making materially false statements last year, right before Moody's August guidance and debt raise.

Any bulls have a different take?

At the very least, I think this lawsuit will make underwriters do a pretty thorough audit and make sure other statements withstand scrutiny.
 
Has anyone seen this court filing before or is today the first day it has been made public? Seeing it make the rounds on some social media.

Dropbox - Wochos v. Tesla 17-cv-05828-CRB #37.pdf

It's definitely dense, drudging through corporate law is most assuredly not as sexy financial projections but there is a lot of information contained within that filing. Some of it is not flattering r.e. Musk/Deepak.
 
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