Hard to say ... somewhere between 100% and certainty.
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Really? You seem no similarities between TSLA and the dot com bubble? Look at valueanalyst's polls trying to rationalize Tesla's market cap with forecasts of future car production volumes. Most of you guys participated in that nonsense. Now you have enough insight to forecast car production to 2025. But you don't want to talk about that truth, do you?
jelloslug
Active Member
Are you actually comparing a company that makes products and has backlog that could last for years with companies that never even had plans on how to monetize their product?
@jhm do you have this excel spreadsheet? data from 1965 - 2017, free from BP of all folks
Downloads | Statistical Review of World Energy | Energy economics | BP
Wind is growing ~19.4% in 2017, 14% per year year 2006-2016 BUT 1,122,terawatt hours installed
Solar is growing ~35.2% in 2017, 49.7% per year 2006-2016 and 442.6 terawatt hours installed
to me, at first glance, Wind got a head start, but Solar is gaining
data is free (and a bit startling)
(Solar in 2006 was a paltry 5.8 terawatt hours installed and wind was 132.9twh)
i guess it's easier to install PV panels everywhere vs "big honking 2-5 megawatt turbines"
BUT the transition is accelerating (49.7%/yr for 10 years!!)
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Personally I think it will be another soso day.
Slightly up, slightly down.
Based on premarket there won't be a short attack of any significance.
But I can be wrong.
FB is going bankwupt !
Slightly up, slightly down.
Based on premarket there won't be a short attack of any significance.
But I can be wrong.
FB is going bankwupt !
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Boy, he sure sounds like a visionary...
On Tesla? Very VERY VERY roughly (it is massively dependent on IV, so this could be off by factors of 3) $3000 for doing it once. I actually spent a while calculating "static rates of return" assuming that the options expired, treating the premium payment as interest on the tied-up money. Didn't do it unless the static rate of return looked better than the alternative investments.
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Verified account 16m16 minutes ago
Most bullish sign for Tesla yet! This goof said Tesla is not in autonomous driving. Yet my #model3 drives me on autopilot everyday. Broken clock. $tsla
TWTR also missed on user growth during their earnings release and is down over 16%. Looks like the market is just being dragged down by this.
Ross has become quite a cheer-leader and it's amplified now he actually has an M3.
So this is what Eisman states. The last time I looked, Tesla seemed to be executing things pretty well. Yes, a bit later that we all would have liked, but now on-track.
Seems like a really odd time to open a short position to me...
The portfolio manager called the company's founder Elon Musk a "very smart man" but raised concern about the CEO's ability to follow through on lofty ambitions.
"He's got execution problems," Eisman, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Friday. "He's nowhere in autonomous driving, as far as I can tell, and big competition is coming in his space next year."
So this is what Eisman states. The last time I looked, Tesla seemed to be executing things pretty well. Yes, a bit later that we all would have liked, but now on-track.
Seems like a really odd time to open a short position to me...
The portfolio manager called the company's founder Elon Musk a "very smart man" but raised concern about the CEO's ability to follow through on lofty ambitions.
"He's got execution problems," Eisman, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Friday. "He's nowhere in autonomous driving, as far as I can tell, and big competition is coming in his space next year."
OK, yes, I knew all of this, but what I didn't get is what Tesla was doing. I would have assumed that they'd write the car down by $7500 immediately before the lease, since in practice all Model S and X in the US were dropping in value by $7500 on the day of purchase, due to the tax credit.
But you're saying you heard that in some cases they were valuing the car at its full (no-tax-credit) value and then treating the residual value as $7500 higher than everyone else was treating the residual value?
OK, I think I get it. So some of these lease cars had inflated residual values and Tesla is out $7500 when they get them back. Now, as the $7500 credit goes *away*, we all know the residual values of the cars are going to show a bounce or decrease less than they normally would (perhaps by $3750 in January, another $1875 next June and another $1875 in Jan 2020), cancelling out some of the depreciation which would otherwise happen. So Tesla's residual values on leases which expire later will be closer to reality.
I'm really not clear on the state of leases with Tesla, partly because GAAP is so god-awful at lease accounting. *All* of Tesla's leases are 3-year leases, though, I know that. And I know Tesla is avoiding direct leases as much as possible. So I can't imagine that the portion of leases which are expiring in the next 6 months (were issued in the second half of 2015) and are direct leases is substantial, and even if they each take a $7500 loss, whatever; it's verging on the immaterial.
So, forgetting about leases, I already concluded that the number of sold cars where the RVG was claimed was immaterial. The guarantee was for 50% of the base value of the car and 43% of the value of the options, plus (for some customers) "more than a comparable BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, or Jaguar", a provision which was probably never used since they have worse depreciation curves than Teslas. Teslas actually hold 57.2% of their value after 3 years on average, so only top-specced cars with very high options counts ever claim the RVG. The RVG was discontinued entirely at the end of June, 2016, and the guarantees ran for 39 months, so the last one which can be claimed will be claimed at the end of September, 2019.
But for some reason Tesla is required to list the *full value of the RVG* on *every car with it* as a liability in its accounting, which is vastly more than they will ever pay out. If I'm not mistaken, this is changing for Q1 2019, when the new lease accouting kicks in, and it will be accounted for more like a warranty reserve, with an estimate of the expected payments. Yes, there's some real payments coming, for the difference betwen the RVG value and the actual resale value on the small number of cars which actually exercise the RVG, but it's much less than the reserve on the books.
(For reference, Tesla delivered about 13,600 cars in the US in the second half of 2015. Only a fraction of those were leased and only a fraction of the sold ones had high options packages. I'd say at absolute maximum worst case scenario Tesla would have to pay out $100 million to deal with inflated lease residuals and RVGs over the second half of this year, and that's a far-too-high estimate.)
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Great summary. The only point where I disagree is that I am *not* sure that Tesla will resolve the problems with scaling up service. This has been a weak point for them for a long time.
Ominous choice of word there ...
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Huh, I managed to buy some more under $300, I thought that ship has sailed many times, but the good samaritan short folks keep helping out!
I will have to remember to drop some food-bank donations with a thank-you note to them when they have gone bankwupt
I will have to remember to drop some food-bank donations with a thank-you note to them when they have gone bankwupt
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Maybe now, but they offered 2 year leases toward the end of 2016, so those leases would be ending about now.
Now you can lease a Tesla Model S for less while waiting for your Model 3 - ExtremeTech
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