I did it earlier this month to get to Teddy Roosevelt NP. Superchargers got me there just fine.
Oh, you wanted to escape, too? Yeah, that's harder.
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Oh, you wanted to escape, too? Yeah, that's harder.
Tesla is only selling the Model 3 in one large market so far and is totally dominating that market, whether you consider ICE competition (per the recent CleanTechnica article) or BEVs. And Tesla is just getting started -- sales are likely to continue to increase.
That is a strong signal for how it will do in the rest of the world. For example, once the Model 3 is up and running in Europe, I expect it to be as dominant in its class as the S is in its class if not moreso. Tesla vehicles now dominates luxury segment in Europe, outselling flagship gas-powered German cars
The Model 3's percentage of BEV sales in Europe and Asia will likely not be as extreme as in the U.S. right now because of other homegrown BEVs that don't have a market in the U.S. (e.g., Renault Zoe, Chinese BEVs), but I believe that thinking the Model 3's strong showing in the U.S. is not a sign of what is to come in Europe and Asia would be a very serious mistake.
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It's pretty astounding that anyone believes that. It still shocks me that it's widely believed. Those who believe it essentially believe that there are no economies of scale in the auto business, which is.... totally ridiculous.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Wow. Was sick for 2 weeks. Finally recovered somewhat and 1 more day to go. My surprise when tsla hit $280 and my SHTF alert popped up.
Well boys, I usually don't play earnings, but I have to play the card and buy this time based on my disciplined research.
Well boys, I usually don't play earnings, but I have to play the card and buy this time based on my disciplined research.
Join the club. I have everything, 6 figures, in Jan20 call options.
Well, 2 weeks ago it was 6 figures.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Big difference perhaps being that mine are regular shares, yours are options.
I am currently essentially fully invested *and* suffering major and unpredictable cash outflows on non-investment matters, or I'd be scooping up more stock and/or selling more puts myself. (I maintain an equity percentage over 70% to avoid any risk of margin calls even if things go very south, and I only use margin to back short puts, which is interest-free.)
(Update: I sold a couple more DOTM puts. Couldn't resist.)
(Update: I sold a couple more DOTM puts. Couldn't resist.)
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Again I am tired of good people giving too much credit to shorts. They are only powerful to the limit the institutional longs like to give them. I actually wonder what they are doing now. If they believe in their thesis how can they keep sitting on the bargain SP.
I just made a significant (for me) buy. I cannot conceive that this is not a temporary low. OTOH, I tend to regularly add to my TSLA holdings.
bdy0627
Active Member
Justin Pulitzer @JustinPulitzer
MOC Early Look: BUYSIDE ACROSS THE BOARD ON BALANCE - MATERIALS / FINANCIALS / FINANCIALS SERVICES / TECH LEAD.....SELL SIDE MATERIALS / INDUSTRIALS....VOLUME DECENT..... MOC EARLY LOOK
MOC Early Look: BUYSIDE ACROSS THE BOARD ON BALANCE - MATERIALS / FINANCIALS / FINANCIALS SERVICES / TECH LEAD.....SELL SIDE MATERIALS / INDUSTRIALS....VOLUME DECENT..... MOC EARLY LOOK
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I didn't say everything. I said most (as in >50%). I have plenty of index funds, 401k, etc. My portfolio is balanced exactly how I'd like it to be (only I'd buy more TSLA now if I could).
Tesla is only out of this market because there is better opportunity for their limited resources.
If they ever get alien dreadnaught working it would make sense to build a low cost vehicle as they would have the lowest marginal production costs and a potential revenue stream from the tesla network.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
I agree. Another post I can't find anymore said something disparaging about the 'Chinese Hondas would be crappy little cars, so that's irrelevant'. I also want Tesla to succeed, but my point is this will require them executing on global sales, not basking in early success in the local US market. Sorry to group you in with related posts, @EinSV.
Good Lord. This is my favourite post in quite a while.Tesla, in terms of run rate (and therefore the annual capacity of the plants) is at about 30 GWh of cell/pack production of advanced LIBs today. They are scaling to about 40 GWh this year. Musk never claimed that Tesla was making more cells/packs than everyone else combined. Just that in 2017, that GF1 became the biggest battery plant in the world, making Suminoe #2. Most of the other manufacturer's capacity is spread around with multiple plants, so GF1 becoming the biggest in itself is not particularly remarkable.
But fundamentally, your thesis has a few flaws and tends to mix things up. One thing to sort out is the demand for automotive packs in China over the next few years and the ability to supply that demand. Furthermore, what is then left over for the rest of the world. As it turns out, the demand to meet Chinese incentives is quite high. The vast majority of the announced capacity increases are to satisfy those mandates, leaving not as much for the rest of the world. Therefore, the thesis about Tesla has to be adjusted for that. You can't take the thirst to make cars like this one for the Chinese market:
BAIC EC180, top selling EV in China, 22 kWh battery, ~$23,000 list price, ~$8,500 after incentives, 48 hp motor, ~70 miles of EPA range.
And confuse it as Tesla's competition. Also, lots of the Chinese capacity is still switching from non-competitive LiFePO4 chemistry to NMC. You also can't make the assumption that any capacity is competitive. There are still differences in the output.
Instead, it is more interesting to look at the production of cells and packs that are competitive with Tesla's products. Much of the purchase obligations taken on by BMW, VW Group and others recently mostly just meet Chinese mandates, giving very little for the rest of the world. While China is a very important market for Tesla, it was only 17% of revenues in 2017. It will be an even smaller percentage in 2018 across the year because the Model 3 isn't shipping to China yet.
In the coming years, the amount of battery cell production available to Tesla is still a massive percentage of the market, even counting China. Outside of China, it looks absolutely dominant. And we can see this with the upcoming "competition" in the form of the Hyundai Kona EV or the Jaguar I-Pace. Both will ship in relatively dismal volume, both under 20,000/year. Both demonstrate how far ahead Tesla is with their EV technologies as well as manufacturing volume. While Tesla is far behind their own projections in terms of volume, they are far ahead of the competition which is still dabbling in the low tens of thousands in terms of BEV volume. The highest volume will come from the Nissan/Renault alliance, with the Leaf slated for about 100,000 unit volume in 2018. But that is a tragically flawed car. And the upcoming variant for 2019 has to share LG's limited cell production in 2019.
I find it common that BNEF, Benchmark Intelligence, and others show current capacity for Tesla/Panasonic (and sometimes not even that) and future capacity at various times for CATL and others. It is almost as if they have an agenda. Can't really talk about LG's 2nd China plant with 32 GWh in possibly 2023 and compare against Tesla's 2018 or 2019 capacity. BNEF has been particularly egregious about this, putting all sorts of nonsense on various charts. They'll put a barely funded Northvolt plant on a chart and won't bother with South Korea or Japan's gigafactories at all. Most of this was in support of CATL's IPO which turned out to provide far less funds than expected, with merely $853 million. In comparison, Panasonic committed $1.6 billion to Tesla's Gigafactory. Panasonic's Suminoe plant was about $1.1 billion in costs. That $853 million doesn't go all that far, so they have some up front capital from BMW and the like.. BMW can invest $426 million as part of their deal.
It is also funny that Tesla's large purchase obligations were cast as boondoggles, a weight around Tesla's neck. And on the other hand, these purchase obligations by VW Group, BMW and others are seen as nails in the coffin for Tesla by these same folks. Let's look at some numbers. For a 100,000 BEVs with 60 kWh packs and at $110/kWh, that's $660 million dollars. So BMW's $4.7 billion dollar deal is only for just under 500,000 cars. That's not a lot given the time scales and the likely back loading of the deal. Even 10x that number which is the VW Group deal is not a lot for 2025-2026. How this pans out in the next 3 years still shows Tesla at a massive marketshare outside of China. We already know the maximum capacity coming on line in 2019 through 2021. Talking about what is coming online in 2023 is too far out mainly because the major automakers still have to deal with their own transitions.
It isn't merely about how many EVs these automakers can make. They have to manage the transition from ICE/hybrids through to EVs with mostly BEVs by the middle of next decade. Tesla can merely execute their plans. All the majors have to figure out how much R&D and production goes into ICE, mild hybrid, light PHEVs, big battery PHEVs, neighborhood BEV, long range BEV, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Transition too early and run into financial problems. Transition too late and have financial problems. All while oil may very well be spiking in price.
Would you mind providing a bit of background around your research. I don't say this out of doubt but admiration of the analysis.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I always advice not going all in. My own ability to stick with predetermined strategic entry point has to do the large amount of bankroll behind the scene.
Each individual stock is managed separately. Each add is less than 1/10th of total position. Until a cash max is reached. That cash max is the total profit generated from this one stock since the beginning.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
bdy0627
Active Member
Sold a couple today as well for the first time. SEP21 $280s for $21.80 each. It's not a lot of money but seems decent given the risk profile at this level. The ironic thing to me is that you can make more money selling puts near the low end of range after a long drop (due to the elevated premiums), just when the risk is likely much lower to do so than when the stock was trading much higher up. I just wish I had the money to cover selling a LOT of them but I need to learn how the margin aspect works with it. I'm definitely not hunting for a margin call.
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