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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Hmmm, could be a huge market for a Tesla gaming video card! Serious gamers drop big cash for small performance gains.

I shall propose it to Elon!
Let them just buy a Tesla to play their games on. :cool:

Elon Musk on Twitter
Screen Shot 2018-08-03 at 11.10.33.png
 
We are definitely seeing walls of sell orders. It got close to $355 and bounced off and is pulling upwards again. I think there will be walls like this pretty much at every multiple of 5 and they will all serve as resistances that must be broken through in order to keep rising.

We have all the time in the world. Shorts with upcoming margin calls and increased borrow rates do not. :)

(Well - my shorter term calls dont either.. lol. But still those are more for fun)
 
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...I was forced to convert all my taxable stock into calls a few hours before earnings so it turned out okay. I don’t mind realizing several millions short term trading profits over the next few quarters
However the real wealth shall be created by holding the common stock for at least 5 to 10 years
I will sell all my calls at a local high sometime over the next 2 to 3 quarters then go into cash and wait for a 30 to 40% pullback and then go 200% marginon common near 200 day SMA
...This is just the start
TT007 - does your tax guy have any hair left? Just calculating your estimated quarterly tax payment sounds like a full-time job!
 
What causes the stock to bounce off $350 ? Did a lot of people put in sales orders at/around $350 thinking that if it ever gets up there again they want out, and enough shares were available at that price that the price never went above it?
I am not sure if anybody answered this, but in general, my understanding is that when a stock have a pop and stock price bounces off the next Option value, sometimes it is because the in-the-money writers of the put options need to de-risk by short selling the shares they will get after expiry. So they pick a top and, if necessary, walk in down if there is a lack of buyers, so that they can get rid of however many number of shares they don't want.
 
Good reminder... Just a minor blip here before market realizes that EVs are the future. Current admin is helping out by listening to the local U S auto manufacturers and shifting away from EVs.

Whether it is Market forces or government-sponsored incentives, China is going towards Ev's and that would be the closest market to watch for demand of electric vehicles and electric grid services. Please feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.
I think the killing efficiency standards in the US will make it even harder for OEMs to divest ICE and transition to EVs. I believe the unintended consequence is that, as EVs go mainstream, more OEMs will fail and Tesla will capture more market share.

Consider that in US, fuel efficient vehicles are cross-subsidized by CAFE. Without this, their prices go up. Conversely, the less fuel efficient vehicles will get even worse mileage, driving up the operating cost on those vehicles. This gives Model 3/Y an advantage in capturing market share among drivers that don't want to pay through the nose for fuel.

Remember how Musk complained about OEM getting the full value for regulatory credits while Tesla only get what they can trade for it. Now take that advantage away, and OEMs find it financially harder to bring new BEV models to market. Meanwhile they are seduced into pursuing more profit with fuel inefficient ICE products. The innovator's dilemma becomes even more pronounced. So many more will fail to make the transition to profitable BEVs.
 
I'm really curious how Tesla will be able to build factories in China and Europe given that they're still cash flow negative, they're still struggling on Model 3 gross margin, and they're not planning to refinance 1B in loans due over the next several months.

The China factory costs 5 billion by Tesla's estimate. Where does the money come from?

On the short side, it is stunning to see the equity markets react the way they have. The bond and CDS markets didn't flinch from their pre-earnings pessimism, while equity did.
 
I'm really curious how Tesla will be able to build factories in China and Europe given that they're still cash flow negative, they're still struggling on Model 3 gross margin, and they're not planning to refinance 1B in loans due over the next several months.

The China factory costs 5 billion by Tesla's estimate. Where does the money come from?

On the short side, it is stunning to see the equity markets react the way they have. The bond and CDS markets didn't flinch from their pre-earnings pessimism, while equity did.

This is how they'll fund the new factories. :)

Tesla short sellers are sitting on a paper loss of nearly $2 billion after stock rally
 
I'm really curious how Tesla will be able to build factories in China and Europe given that they're still cash flow negative, they're still struggling on Model 3 gross margin, and they're not planning to refinance 1B in loans due over the next several months.

The China factory costs 5 billion by Tesla's estimate. Where does the money come from?

On the short side, it is stunning to see the equity markets react the way they have. The bond and CDS markets didn't flinch from their pre-earnings pessimism, while equity did.

As another said it was all on the CC and then talked about here. Elon stated they will borrow the money from Chinese national banks. And he said he believes it will only really cost 2 billion for the factory to get up to produce 250k per year. Now my understanding is that does not include batteries but I could be wrong. I'm wondering if 5 billion was a safe estimate they used for 500k a year and including the cost to set up battery production but Panasonic will take on that cost anyways.

Anyone else have clarity on the 2 bill? To me it was for a factory for 250k a year (not a lot of capital to increase capacity past that though) and no batteries.

Edit: Oh ya and the Europe factory they haven't said anything but maybe they assume by then they will have enough cash flow to just internally fund it.
 
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Sorry I can't keep up with everything Tesla says.

Why Tesla Is Investing $5 Billion in a New China Factory, Its First Outside the U.S.

Apparently now the price tag is 2B? Down from 5B? Seems unrealistic given prices of other lines.

Sorry, can't keep up with all the bullshit Elon says.

My favorite from their letter...

Elon says gross margin of Model 3 is "slightly positive," but the Q1 letter says positive gross profit "excluding non-cash items." Quite a caveat.

The reality is people like you will NEVER admit you're wrong and will continue to double down and nitpick every little detail straining for any sense of credibility. It must be a sad life to lead...

Jeff
 
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