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TT007 absolutely correct here
Go back and check historical prices April 2013. In the days after Musk dropped bombshell, price went up on first day then meandered several days to weeks but shot up unequivocally over weeks to months many fold.
Many of us remember it going up every day but that was NOT the case. But end result was still 6x gain over 4-5 months.
I can attest to this. Went through hell getting contract. Home delivered car that was delayed two weeks sat in driveway for 9 days before contract arrived. Couldn't register Model 3 without it.
There was a huge buy in the US tech 100 index a little while ago. Is this a good sign for a positive tech market tomorrow?
mickificki
Member
No worries; you're a Moderator with the pink font!
It's NOT PINK! It's LAVENDER!
sundaymorning
Active Member
Marky boy looks nervous, his fund is going to crater soon.
ZachShahan
Active Member
So, it seems that there is downward pressure, downward pressure, downward pressure, and that is just going to be released from time to time now as big positive news comes out — or perhaps for no apparent reason at all. I'm no pro, but I'm expecting some analyst upgrades in the coming week that would lead to some jumps. What are people's expectations here regarding the potential for such upgrades and jumps?
Any other expectations for good news that might lead to some more jumps (back up to or notably above $350, for example)? Major media outlets highlighting the Model 3's rather amazing position on the top 10 list of passenger car sales? A large piece in the WSJ or something that tries to reverse the "scary" Tesla narrative we've been fed for months? Elon tweeting about a short squeeze again?
(Note: I gave up on short-term trading ages ago when I determined my sense of big Tesla news didn't match the market's and I didn't feel comfortable trying to predict short-term market response, but it seems now is one of those times when many of us are wondering about the right price to put more money in before the stock flies above $350 and stays there.)
larmor
Active Member
Next piece of news will be the discovery of the spreadsheet with copy and paste functions to formulae. Selling alot of new cars with all premium options with decreasing capital expenditure, and decreasing liabilities-- ie getting less money on credit, will add up to more profits. Will they sell the 35k car, sure, but as long as tesla remains a public company, i'm sure shareholders would appreciate it if they could sell cars with higher margins.
The so called spreadsheet discovery will also demonstrate how utility companies are saving big moola, and whatever the cost and revenue of TE, the demonstration of increased savings will result in short term future higher valuation to TE--shh utility companies do not want you to know that they have access to this so called spreadsheet.
Really? Because here is someone who actually studied thousands of breakouts and he is saying something completely else :
(emphasis mine)
TT007 contradicting himself in sequential posts isn't really surprising.
All I know is I'm digging in until 2019 because I know the bears and shorts (and bears wearing shorts) aren't likely to leave Tesla alone until they have demonstrated multiple profitable quarters and they have completely paid off their bond debts. Once Tesla reaches the point of being financially untouchable, there's f*** all the bears wearing shorts can do to them at that point.
Until then, my eyes are currently on August 16th when NVDA earnings report is due.
All I know is I'm digging in until 2019 because I know the bears and shorts (and bears wearing shorts) aren't likely to leave Tesla alone until they have demonstrated multiple profitable quarters and they have completely paid off their bond debts. Once Tesla reaches the point of being financially untouchable, there's f*** all the bears wearing shorts can do to them at that point.
Until then, my eyes are currently on August 16th when NVDA earnings report is due.
mutle
Member
Yes, that needs to happen. From previous podcasts I remember that Joe is mostly a Porsche 911 fan, and the P3D is much closer to that than an S or X. Plus, IMO, the front of the 3 looks a bit like a Porsche.
Yep, we need a catalyst to stop this steady drip, drip, haemorrhage/erosion of the SP. That being said, M3 production is continually in the mid 5k's now, perhaps we'll see 6k in the Bloomberg tracker soon and that will give a bump.
I refuse to trade any shares, the SP is too unpredictable. I have a massive FOMO that it's going to spike 50% the moment after I sell - the same way it always seems to drop 10% just after I've bought (with the exception of $250 and $254 recently).
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Ok I'l make sure it doesn't go under 300
but preventing it from going over 400? sorry man, I'm good but nobody is that good.
Source please...Skabooshka number around 4,000/week. If you do not believe him what source do you have ?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Noticed something interesting/odd about yesterday's (2018.08.06) price action:
I.e. yesterday's price action was distinctly at odds with what Volumebot is telling us about 'short sentiment'.
Speculation:
- By historical standard volatility was average at $13.16, with a $354.98 top and a $341.82 bottom, but it represented a significant intraday drop of about 3.7% after a strong rise, and the closing price ($341.99) was very close to the bottom.
- At the same time, despite the significant drop, 'short volume' metrics are showing a significant drop in shorting activity, such as Volumebot. These 'shorting volume' metrics have limitations in that they only capture about 50% of all transactions, but I believe they are showing 'broad-based short activity sentiment' by retail shorts pretty accurately. The drop suggests that there was a significant drop in short sentiment over the weekend, from over 50% to 30% - near record low levels.
- The FUD tide is turning and turned some more over the weekend, and Spiegel's TV interview should convince any rational shorts left that he's leading a lost cause: you could smell his fear and anger in the interview, by putting all his money into 2020 January PUT options when TSLA was at around $350 he realized a big loss and leveraged his bet like TT007 often dreams of doing, but the Q2 report effectively trapped him in that position with a quickly depreciating asset. Spiegel should be pretty close to having turned a ~$10m fund into a <$1m fund by shorting Tesla.
- The price action over the day was brutal: early in the day TSLA started with a strong rise, but then a very significant break-out on NASDAQ that would normally have resulted in a $5-$10 rise by TSLA was not followed through - significant amounts of liquidity at around $355 (last week's peak and now major line of resistance) consumed all the buying activity of around 1 million shares.
- The pattern of selling over the day was almost non-stop, and it had very similar pattern of first consuming liquidity at key levels with what appeared to be LIMIT orders, and then 'punching through' the relatively thin book via pressure-selling via MARKET orders - just enough to trigger stops and trailing stops, and patiently working down the price during the day. The pattern had the appearance of a single big player and must have cost at least 1 million shares. Most of the liquidity was soaked up using LIMIT orders - which explains the Volumebot drop in short interest (which would not interpret a LIMIT order as initiator of a short position I believe).
I.e. yesterday's price action was distinctly at odds with what Volumebot is telling us about 'short sentiment'.
Speculation:
- At this point I find it unlikely that any of the big short players has this much dry firepower available, and even if they had shares available to sell I believe they'd try to time it with Tesla-negative news like they did it in the past. Yesterday's price action on the other hand was done with very little genuine news other than the 10-Q of the Q2 report, which contained mostly positive news and reiteration of positive news.
- But who has a lot of shares available to work the price like this? Major holders of 5+ million shares with a bullish view of the company: they know that there's almost zero risk in reducing the price temporarily, as the stock is undervalued.
- So my working hypothesis is that what we saw yesterday was either a market maker de-risking some big options win caused by the big gap up, or an attempt to walk back the price a bit by one of the big funds long in TSLA, either to accumulate more shares at lower price levels through stop-hunting, or to earn a lot of shares this Friday through options:
- Note that the options chain for this Friday does not seem to have anything weird in it though.
- But if it was a market maker de-risking then the aggressive stopping at $355 and the aggressive drop at the end of the day makes little sense: they'd have until Friday to fix their book, and they'd want the price to stay high. So they'd de-risk mostly by trimming the tops a bit but not breaking down the price - there's 4 long trading days left until Friday.
- I'd discount owners of the 2019 March notes and the $360 conversion price as culprits: while $920m is a lot of money, it's just 2.5 million shares of TSLA and probably distributed pretty diversely, in 100m or so chunks - which only represent a couple of hundred thousand shares ownership interest (if any). Enough to probably de-risk via a short position once price goes through $360 decisively, but probably not enough of a stake to have an interest in setting the price aggressively.
- Since yesterday's price action probably consumed a net amount of shares, and the selling near the end of the day was aggressive, the primary goal must be even lower price levels, to shake out weaker longs or to set the stage for options-Friday.
- Another possibility is a big options market-maker being on the wrong side of many CALL options - but I have trouble believing that a big bank would just let that happen.
- And yes, this could still be consistent with a big short seller increasing position size, regardless of the cost.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I am somewhat surprised that we haven’t seen more short covering (according to Ihor). Do they really not believe what was presented on the ER and CC?
But I’m becoming more and more convinced that the shorts (a) move the SP way less than I have always assumed, and (b) TSLA will be highly shorted for a long, long time based on comparable valuations. Those waiting for a short squeeze might have to wait for Godot.
Oh, and Speigel’s an idiot and lives in his Mom’s basement. We talk about him 100 times more than he deserves.
But I’m becoming more and more convinced that the shorts (a) move the SP way less than I have always assumed, and (b) TSLA will be highly shorted for a long, long time based on comparable valuations. Those waiting for a short squeeze might have to wait for Godot.
Oh, and Speigel’s an idiot and lives in his Mom’s basement. We talk about him 100 times more than he deserves.
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