TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[theschnell]

I think the moderator in this clip summed it up and to be honest I think it is the first time I heard anyone say it. These are two viewpoints looking at the same data and coming up with totally different conclusions through the way they interpret the data. Best I can tell, one side is looking at it strictly through historical perspectives and the other is looking at it through the prospect for future growth. Simple as that. Neither side is going to convince the other they're wrong. Time will play out in the end but until then neither side is going to budge.

Dan

I didn't watch the clip. I had to stop when he said he had a 7 figure short position. No one asked the size of his position.

Anyway, a large part of Spiegel's position has always been competition. That was an ok argument until the Bolt came out, which Spiegel tweeted many times would be the death of the Model 3. Now its the stupidest argument ever. Because the Bolt is a very good car, with very good range, with a price that is only 70% of the current Model 3, yet is it denting demand for Model 3?

So what in the world makes him think OEMs building EVs will dent demand for Tesla's products??? It's straight crazy to have a real life failure of your thesis, and yet still cling to that thesis.

I truly feel bad for him and even worse for anyone who invests their money with him. He just keeps burying his head deeper and deeper and deeper.

Now for Tesla to get and remain profitable. It is time for that, and that day is coming very soon assuming its not already here.

 

[tivoboy]

, I think Elon got $200-$300 million out of that being sold.

Hmm do you have any information that supports that number? Knowing several people involved in that transaction I’d be surprised Elon’s take was that much.

 

[MP3Mike]

didn't watch the clip. I had to stop when he said he had a 7 figure short position. No one asked the size of his position.

Well the host did start out by asking what their stakes were...

 

[theschnell]

Well the host did start out by asking what their stakes were...

True, and in listening to his answer again, I had misunderstood the first time. The dollar amount of the value of the stock their short is 7 figures, so that includes his put position. So his absolute dollar position is a lot smaller than I initially realized or than he made obvious by his answer.

So I was wrong. I thought when they asked stakes, it just meant which direction, but technically it does also mean the type and size of position. He still answered in a way to make his position sound a lot bigger than it really is.

I'm super biased against Speigel. I'll admit that. The guy drives me nuts. I used to check in on his twitter a lot, and for about a year now I've stopped because he's lost all credibility for me completely.

 

[bdy0627]

I didn't watch the clip. I had to stop when he said he had a 7 figure short position. No one asked the size of his position.

Anyway, a large part of Spiegel's position has always been competition. That was an ok argument until the Bolt came out, which Spiegel tweeted many times would be the death of the Model 3. Now its the stupidest argument ever. Because the Bolt is a very good car, with very good range, with a price that is only 70% of the current Model 3, yet is it denting demand for Model 3?

So what in the world makes him think OEMs building EVs will dent demand for Tesla's products??? It's straight crazy to have a real life failure of your thesis, and yet still cling to that thesis.

I truly feel bad for him and even worse for anyone who invests their money with him. He just keeps burying his head deeper and deeper and deeper.

Now for Tesla to get and remain profitable. It is time for that, and that day is coming very soon assuming its not already here.

Totally agree. Painful interview to watch given Spiegel's obvious desperation level for the stock to go down. Keep in mind, he (and many of the shorts) doesn't think there actually is much demand left for the model 3, so they can ignore the Bolt competition problem. According to shorts, Tesla is already having to park 3s to sit for weeks and possibly months due to over-producing the LR version. They expect to see the same thing no doubt with each variant. That's a very easy thesis to disprove pretty quickly. Tesla should be able to rapidly disprove it over the next 6 months. I used to worry a bit about whether I was being overly optimistic about Tesla. I don't have that worry anymore. The shorts are simply and massively on the wrong side of this thing. They will win some battles on volatility but longterm they are in trouble.

 

[ggr]

Hmm do you have any information that supports that number? Knowing several people involved in that transaction I’d be surprised Elon’s take was that much.

No, I can't directly justify that number, but the amounts invested in Tesla and SpaceX added up to about $200M, and he almost went broke...

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla should be able to rapidly disprove it over the next 6 months. I used to worry a bit about whether I was being overly optimistic about Tesla. I don't have that worry anymore. The shorts are simply and massively on the wrong side of this thing. They will win some battles on volatility but longterm they are in trouble.

And he is now on video record of saying that Tesla will have to raise additional capital in the next 6 months or they will go under. Somebody should put this on their calendar...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

According to shorts, Tesla is already having to park 3s to sit for weeks and possibly months due to over-producing the LR version.

The only thing I do wonder about is why there were 11K Model 3s in transit at the end of June, but only 14K sold in July. Seems strange.

 

[MP3Mike]

The only thing I do wonder about is why there were 11K Model 3s in transit at the end of June, but only 14K sold in July. Seems strange.

Because the next bottlenecks were logistics, contracts, preparations, and deliveries...

 

[Ugliest1]

The only thing I do wonder about is why there were 11K Model 3s in transit at the end of June, but only 14K sold in July. Seems strange.

How do we know only 14k sold? Tesla doesn’t release monthly numbers. I may have missed some highly accurate sleuthing of course.

 

[RobStark]

How do we know only 14k sold? Tesla doesn’t release monthly numbers. I may have missed some highly accurate sleuthing of course.

People got the official numbers from the competitors. Did some geometry and algebra to figure out X from the following Chart released by Tesla.

 

[BrianZ]

Hey guys,

Can we PLEASE moderate ourselves and post all non market action posts in the general discussion thread? We're here to talk about what's going on in the market, not fundamental related stuff. I come here to read about market action, not general discussion.

This has gotten so bad that somehow we aren't talking about today's ridiculous market action! Tesla's stock plunged for no reason at the end of the day even though the market was shooting straight up at the end of the day. That's the kind of stuff we should be talking about in this thread.

Thank you

 

[mltv]

How do we know only 14k sold? Tesla doesn’t release monthly numbers. I may have missed some highly accurate sleuthing of course.

Well, there is a guidance of 50k - 55k for Q3. the 14k July? not sure about that.

 

[Sudre]

And he is now on video record of saying that Tesla will have to raise additional capital in the next 6 months.....

Again. Remember. If Tesla gets a loan in China for that GF Marky Boy will claim that's the cap raise in disguise.

I find it odd that Marky Boy admits the numbers do actually look like they are improving and he expects potential for improvement in Q3, even a profit (at the 1:38 mark). So even while everything is proving his bear thesis wrong, even by his standards, he is still short. That's just insane. That point should be echo'd in the twitter space, "Mark feels Tesla will profit in Q3". Echo it Over and OVER. Simply leave out everything else he said in that statement much like he does with Elon.

Even if Tesla does have to rise capital, the numbers are simply getting better Q after Q. It is over for the bears.

 

[Causalien]

True, and in listening to his answer again, I had misunderstood the first time. The dollar amount of the value of the stock their short is 7 figures, so that includes his put position. So his absolute dollar position is a lot smaller than I initially realized or than he made obvious by his answer.

So I was wrong. I thought when they asked stakes, it just meant which direction, but technically it does also mean the type and size of position. He still answered in a way to make his position sound a lot bigger than it really is.

I'm super biased against Speigel. I'll admit that. The guy drives me nuts. I used to check in on his twitter a lot, and for about a year now I've stopped because he's lost all credibility for me completely.

From his body language he does have skin in the game. For a long time I thought he was just a pretend short and are just trashing tsla for fun.

 

[bdy0627]

Because the next bottlenecks were logistics, contracts, preparations, and deliveries...

Yeah, that's the simplest answer, particularly given how quickly the ramp happened in June into July.

 

[bdy0627]

Hey guys,

Can we PLEASE moderate ourselves and post all non market action posts in the general discussion thread? We're here to talk about what's going on in the market, not fundamental related stuff. I come here to read about market action, not general discussion.

This has gotten so bad that somehow we aren't talking about today's ridiculous market action! Tesla's stock plunged for no reason at the end of the day even though the market was shooting straight up at the end of the day. That's the kind of stuff we should be talking about in this thread.

Thank you

Yes, please. I come to this thread to hear thoughtful discussion about the stock movement. We used to get quite a bit of that but I'm not sure what happened to it. A little extra discussion about pertinent things is fine, but this is really just a general thread right now.

 

[ZachShahan]

And he is now on video record of saying that Tesla will have to raise additional capital in the next 6 months or they will go under. Somebody should put this on their calendar...

I'm pretty positive I'll refer back to this video after the next 3 quarterly conference calls.

 

[ZachShahan]

People got the official numbers from the competitors. Did some geometry and algebra to figure out X from the following Chart released by Tesla.

Geometry and algebra?
Shoot, all I did was some basic math.

My estimate had been 16,000 before this, though, so I hope they can clear these bottlenecks out better in August.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA I can not overemphasize how UNimportant the price action is over the next 7 to 10 trading days
I have studied thousands of breakouts and the worst thing is to pay undue attention to next several days after a gap up breakout
the most critical time frame is 3 to 6 to 9 months