TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Causalien]

There's a funny inversion going on with TSLA stock. Long term vol sits at 75% while short term has fallen to 40%.
Looks like everyone is still pricing in Q3 ER as the battleground.

 

[sundaymorning]

Was wondering the same thing. I think it coincided with Porsche announcing info about Taycan and electric car future.

Maximum Porsche produces 20,000 Taycans per year. Model 3 currently does that amount in 1 month.

 

[Jayjs20]

So, what do you guys think? Was the drop this afternoon mainly profit taking? Sure didn't seem like there was a bunch of FUD driving the price down. Hmmm...

Dan

It dropped well below the upper BB, which is a signal to start selling. It's not impossible, but it'll be rather difficult for the SP to reverse and continue climbing.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I'm sure you guys saw this, but just in case...

Dan

 

[ggr]

Mod: moved posts about taking delivery at the factory to their own thread. This has been hashed out in other threads (not in Finance). You can't win. Taking Delivery in California out of Market Action --ggr.

 

[neroden]

There's a funny inversion going on with TSLA stock. Long term vol sits at 75% while short term has fallen to 40%.
Looks like everyone is still pricing in Q3 ER as the battleground.

Helpful. I'm seeing volatility drop even on my Jan 2019s though.

 

[Curt Renz]

It dropped well below the upper BB, which is a signal to start selling. It's not impossible, but it'll be rather difficult for the SP to reverse and continue climbing.

Good point. Indeed TSLA fell back below the Upper Bolinger Band today after rising above the Lower BB on Tuesday. For the very short term that may have inspired some highly technical traders and algobots to to take profits. In turn they could have scared weak longs (mainly day traders) into selling. However on Wednesday the 50-day Simple Moving Average pushed above the 200-day SMA. That may have longer term bullish significance.

 

[D-egg-O]

I'm sure you guys saw this, but just in case...

Dan

Wow! Smeagle sure did himself no favors with that video. Talk about living in an echo chamber with absolutely no clue on reality.

 

[avoigt]

Yes, I love remembering that. I learned from a documentary recently that Musk was originally elated to get 100 reservations for the Roadster, only to discover that that was the tip of the iceberg. Model S was late and cost slightly more than planned; Model X was late; but Model S is selling 50K/year and Mdoel X is selling 50K/year. So much for "20,000 per year" and "10,000 - 15,000 per year".

God only knows how many Model 3s they'll sell...

Agree.

I remember very well the time shorts did repeat time over time that the S will never sell more than 20k p.a. and looking at the car and the reaction of people driving it I did no believe so.

When the X came with all the issues around the doors I was uncertain to what extend it will be a car for a broader market with the fancy falcon doors. I was wrong and the car found its market, is truly loved and flaws are history.

Now we have the 3 and the worst report I could find about it is that its a great car.

Right now here in this board its a very US centric discussion which I understand and it makes sense as the car is only delivered in NA these days. Internationally I believe it will sell extremely well and even better and in that respect I talk in particular about Europe and China. Its a much better fit in this markets versus the US and demand will be likely even higher than in the US.

If the end of August production rate of 6k/w would saturate the NA market (which I doubt) than we have a annual run rate of 300k 3s for NA. Add 25 to 30% to that number for each Europe and China and add this together. Not to mention SA.

We all do not know what the peak production will be but for the unforeseeable future they will sell ever single car they can produce for a price they set. Making the napkin math brings me into the 7 digit for the 3 if they are able to produce them.

 

[ZachShahan]

Wow! Smeagle sure did himself no favors with that video. Talk about living in an echo chamber with absolutely no clue on reality.

Well, we've got something very visible and very specific to check in a few months. I'll be returning to this at least a few times for articles on CleanTechnica.

*Superb* job by Galileo too. Great on his feet there.

 

[RiverCard]

I'm sure you guys saw this, but just in case...

Dan

Is what Gali said correct? -- that Elon sold his interests in Zip2 for $300 million and in Paypal for $1.5 Billion?

 

[SO16]

Is what Gali said correct? -- that Elon sold his interests in Zip2 for $300 million and in Paypal for $1.5 Billion?

That’s what the companies sold for.

 

[SO16]

Well, we've got something very visible and very specific to check in a few months. I'll be returning to this at least a few times for articles on CleanTechnica.

*Superb* job by Galileo too. Great on his feet there.

Why do people like Smeagle keep talking as if the EV customer pool size isn’t increasing? He acts as though there are only a fixed number of EV buyers out there and that they will all flock to another manufacturer. Couldn’t be more wrong.

Besides, those “Tesla killers” are more like ICE killers for their own products. Hence the low volumes.

The guy sounds extremely desperate.

I will be curious to know about the 11k in transit plus the amount produced for July sales.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think the moderator in this clip summed it up and to be honest I think it is the first time I heard anyone say it. These are two viewpoints looking at the same data and coming up with totally different conclusions through the way they interpret the data. Best I can tell, one side is looking at it strictly through historical perspectives and the other is looking at it through the prospect for future growth. Simple as that. Neither side is going to convince the other they're wrong. Time will play out in the end but until then neither side is going to budge.

Dan

 

[RobStark]

Is what Gali said correct? -- that Elon sold his interests in Zip2 for $300 million and in Paypal for $1.5 Billion?

Elon sold a majority share in Zip2 to an investor for $3M.

Elon's take of the $307M sale to Compaq was $22M. Original investment $28k.

Elon's take from the $1.5B sale to Ebay was $180M.

 

[ggr]

That’s what the companies sold for.

Yes, the companies, not Elon. X.com was merged with another company to form Paypal, I think Elon got $200-$300 million out of that being sold.

 

[RiverCard]

That’s what the companies sold for.

No fan of most anything wiki, but

In April 1998, Zip2 attempted to merge with CitySearch, its main competitor. While Musk initially supported the merger,[11] he persuaded the board of directors not to proceed with it.[12] The two companies "cited incompatibilities in cultures and technology" as the reason for the merger's failure, according to The New York Times.[13]

In February 1999, Compaq Computer paid US$307 million to acquire Zip2.[4]:109 Elon and Kimbal Musk, the original founders, netted US$22 million and $15 million respectively.[4]:109[14] The company was purchased to enhance Compaq's AltaVista web search engine

 

[Causalien]

I'm sure you guys saw this, but just in case...

Dan

First time watching Spiegel, I would probably dismiss Spiegel in real life if I met him.

Constantly interrupting ppl. Feels stressful from his body language just by watching that clip.

Only because I am invested in TSLA that I am force fed this bullshit daily.

**Just remembered why it left a bad taste in my mouth. Mark reminded me of this debate I had with a fund manager when BAC was at 6. He was gloating about his genius short from $6 to $3 vs my continuous buy ins. And implying that I don't know how the market work. Exact same attitude, same rapid fire interruption.

 

[Causalien]

Helpful. I'm seeing volatility drop even on my Jan 2019s though.

Eventually it'll drop. But since the height a few days ago of 80%, it didn't drop by much compared to the short term (high of 100%) There were a few rare instances in the past where this inversion happened and they lasted exactly one quarter.

Soon. As short term vol drops more, it'll be profitable to pick up short term calls and sell long term puts or calls.

 

[Sudre]

I can see now that once Tesla gets funding from China to build that GF the bears will be claiming Tesla was bailed out by China. They are so predictable and pathetic. Basically Tesla will get a loan to build the GF in China around the same time they pay off the bonds and you can see the writing on the wall from there.