TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Revhappy2]

So how many of you are buying if the price is sub 380 at market open?

 

[lklundin]

Wow. Either Elon just repealed every law of finance, or he's jumped the shark.

I am unsure what that means, but it is about 18 hours late to the party.

 

[elliott82]

So how many of you are buying if the price is sub 380 at market open?

I'm buying stock like a madman

 

[gora321]

JPM's new target for TSLA: $308

#TSLA - Twitter Search

10:43 BERENBERG Positiv 500,00 USD 12 Monate +33,31%
11:19 JEFFERIES Neutral 360,00 USD 12 Monate -4,11%

 

[bhtooefr]

I almost suspect that Elon actually jumping an actual shark wouldn't fall to the level of "jumping the shark" (with the implications of decaying quality that "jumping the shark" carries).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Gang, I can not BEGIN to tell you how much fun it was to watch CNBC explode yesterday. Many of their analysts were absolutely beside themselves trying to figure out how to spin all the news. No wonder Elon wants out. I can't blame him in the least.

Dan

 

[SebastianR]

This is simply not true. I wish people were more careful with these kind of statements. There is always a chance the deal does not go through and there is always the chance that the stock price will suffer from it. Just because it worked with SolarCity does not mean it will work in this case.

Look, of course - don't take investment advice for a guy on the internet. So none of what I said is advice... BUT: Shorts were going wild over every round of raising capital / issuing bonds / the merger of Solar City. And of course I'm biased. But I'm not aware of any proposal that EM made to the board that was rejected. I'm also not aware of any stockholder proposal that was endorsed by EM+Board that didn't go through. I'm aware of lots of noise around any suggestion thought.

So nothing is a done deal. But we do have a bit of precedence. And if EM says that the financing is lined up... Well, everyone place your bets accordingly.

What does he know we don't that allows him to use the word "never"?

Well, I asked for other examples he said he can't remember any. He didn't really know about Tesla as a company but said he heard about the intention to go private. I think he simply couldn't imagine how this would work. Keep in mind, the guy is working on Scandinavian stocks in Denmark. I wouldn't put too much into that. I'm more thinking of it as a sentiment that the common man on the street would have vis-a-vis the whole project

So how many of you are buying if the price is sub 380 at market open?

Me I already did (in Frankfurt). (not advice, just putting my money where my mouth is).

 

[Lhan]

Look, of course - don't take investment advice for a guy on the internet. So none of what I said is advice... BUT: Shorts were going wild over every round of raising capital / issuing bonds / the merger of Solar City. And of course I'm biased. But I'm not aware of any proposal that EM made to the board that was rejected. I'm also not aware of any stockholder proposal that was endorsed by EM+Board that didn't go through. I'm aware of lots of noise around any suggestion thought.

So nothing is a done deal. But we do have a bit of precedence. And if EM says that the financing is lined up... Well, everyone place your bets accordingly.



Well, I asked for other examples he said he can't remember any. He didn't really know about Tesla as a company but said he heard about the intention to go private. I think he simply couldn't imagine how this would work. Keep in mind, the guy is working on Scandinavian stocks in Denmark. I wouldn't put too much into that. I'm more thinking of it as a sentiment that the common man on the street would have vis-a-vis the whole project



Me I already did (in Frankfurt). (not advice, just putting my money where my mouth is).

+13

 

[brantse]

Baird Says Tesla will Smoke the $420 Level.
Tesla will smoke the $420 level, Baird says

 

[Starno]

Yes it would. We just all want to make lots of money for doing next to no work.

Next to no work?!
I spend 50 hours a week, analyzing companies, balance sheets, financial statements, macro economics trends, micro economics trends....
And then allocating capital.

It doesn't feel like work to me because I love it. But in the common sense of the word, it is work.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I’ve been trying to read back over all the pages I missed this afternoon, and I have seen very little discussion of “financing secured”. This financing seems critical to me but there has been no disclosure by Tesla as to who is providing this financing. Isnt a legal disclosure necessary when a public company secures financing? Or, maybe not when it is under consideration but once it is actually done.

Besides Larry Page, who do we think might provide financing? WS banks are excluded, public companies would have to disclose, so maybe a consortium of private investors who can fly under the radar?

$70 billion would be a lot of private investors - unless it's Buffett, Gates or Bezos or similar you couldn't do it quietly.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Did you mean Richard Breeden?

Yes it’s by years

 

[Johan]

Baird Says Tesla will Smoke the $420 Level.
Tesla will smoke the $420 level, Baird says

Nice innuendo. One has to wonder if the 420 price was a bit of a goof that happened to fit pretty well with the current stock price. It would be very Elonesque to have some fun with it, like S3XY and what-not.

We think some shareholders may demand a steeper premium than the $420 mark, and we think shares could move higher as shorts cover and investors demand a higher price to go private,” said analysts Ben Kallo and David Katter, in a note to clients. “We view the risk/reward as extremely favorable at current levels.”

 

[mongo]

$70 billion would be a lot of private investors - unless it's Buffett, Gates or Bezos or similar you couldn't do it quietly.

The investors have likely already bought the shares at <420 and have formed a >50% voting block.
Elon has 20%, only need 8 billionaires with 4% each to complete the group (2.1 billion each @$300 sp) . Add on capital for whatever non-converting float remains (which increases their share value)

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
Investor support is confirmed. Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

 

[jeewee3000]

$70 billion would be a lot of private investors - unless it's Buffett, Gates or Bezos or similar you couldn't do it quietly.

You are hereby my first ignored member on this forum.

As many have posted, Musk wants shareholders to stay with TSLA if they want to AND he stated there is investor support. Put two and two together and we know he has talked to some of the shareholders to get their blessing.

He only needs funding to buy out the shares of those who want to sell or can't go private (401K?). This will be less than 30% of that, I assure you.

EDIT: mongo beat me to it.

 

[bhtooefr]

FWIW, everyone saying that Tesla wouldn't have to report financials after going private...

SEC.gov | Going Private

A publicly held company may deregister its equity securities when they are held by less than 300 shareholders of record or less than 500 shareholders of record, where the company does not have significant assets. Depending on the facts and circumstances, the company may no longer be required to file periodic reports with the SEC once the number of shareholders of record drops below the above thresholds.

Given what Tesla's doing with allowing shareholders to stay on board, there's going to be a lot more than 300 shareholders of record. Which would mean that Tesla isn't actually going private, in SEC terminology, and would be required to report normally?

That would imply to me that this is more of a... stock buyback plus NASDAQ delisting (which would mean that Tesla would still end up on the OTC markets I think)?

 

[cricketman]

$70 billion would be a lot of private investors - unless it's Buffett, Gates or Bezos or similar you couldn't do it quietly.

Excuse my ignorance, but wouldn't the amount of capital required be much lower than this?

The cash injection into the company when they go private only has to be equal to the amount of people who want to cash in their shares?

So, lets say that is 50% of retail investors (who own $7b of stock) and 20% of investor funds (who own $20b of stock). That would mean Elon would need to find $8-10billion of cash. Something that Apple, Google, Softback, the Saudis etc could do easily

 

[Drax7]

if you believe in tesla’s ability to perform, then it doesn’t matter if they’re public or private.

The issue with private is price discovery.
Liquidity and price discovery are serious considerations.

 

[mongo]

FWIW, everyone saying that Tesla wouldn't have to report financials after going private...

SEC.gov | Going Private



Given what Tesla's doing with allowing shareholders to stay on board, there's going to be a lot more than 300 shareholders of record. Which would mean that Tesla isn't actually going private, in SEC terminology, and would be required to report normally?

That would imply to me that this is more of a... stock buyback plus NASDAQ delisting (which would mean that Tesla would still end up on the OTC markets I think)?

With right of first purchase on shares, there is no open trading ability. See SpaceX.

 

[Johan]

Excuse my ignorance, but wouldn't the amount of capital required be much lower than this?

The cash injection into the company when they go private only has to be equal to the amount of people who want to cash in their shares?

So, lets say that is 50% of retail investors (who own $7b of stock) and 20% of investor funds (who own $20b of stock). That would mean Elon would need to find $8-10billion of cash. Something that Apple, Google, Softback, the Saudis etc could do easily

Exactly this. This is not a "go private deal" that means that some investor wants to buy the whole company and own it 100% privately. The meaning of "going private" here means delisting TSLA from NASDAQ. That's all. When that happens they have to set up an exit for those who for whatever reason can't or won't keep holding TSLA once it's delisted - that's what Elon means when he says he has funding secured at $420.