TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

If I didn't follow this thread and inherently trust Elon when he says/tweets something, I'd be scared & confused. I think that's the only way to read the movement today. People are spooked from all the chatter of SEC investigations and all the claims Elon is lying or might be lying. #Insane

Absolutely, follow the major news outlets and nothing else then they're clearly doomed.

But are there any retail investors here who don't absolutely trust Elon at his word? It doesn't even cross my mind that he might be lying. I don't actually think Elon is the type of person who lies anyway - overly optimistic, yes, but a liar, absolutely not. How can I tell this? Well when you're inherently honest yourself, you see it in other people very quickly. Elon is incredibly sincere, too much at times it must be said.

I would imagine that if we were to sum the investments from the shareholders on this thread, we'd get many millions of $, even if you're succumbing to the FUD, don't! Believe in Elon, he's not kidding. Once we get some more concrete info, the SP will reverse, very quickly I think.

 

[dailo]

I think we all have to admit the way this was executed was bad. I can’t imagine the board is all that thrilled with the tweet, but if everything goes through I guess all is forgiven.

 

[Tslynk67]

I think we all have to admit the way this was executed was bad. I can’t imagine the board is all that thrilled with the tweet, but if everything goes through I guess all is forgiven.

Wait until it plays-out, then judge...

 

[Boomer19]

I mean, always with trading if you short on open market you are subject to unlimited losses. I guess my problem with the post was that it was some sort of 'free money' or 'safety' situation for longs, combined with this idea that the shorts were going to have to buyback for like 1k because no longs wanted to sell during the LBO or something. Maybe I just read it wrong I didnt mean to attack the guy, just that everyone should be careful. YOu trade you are subject to lose all you invest on both sides. There are no floors other than $0 for longs

fair

i’m not assuming anything until i see what the terms of this deal are. who knows what regulations will come up for certain types of shareholders on taking private equity option. there have been a bunch of use cases listed so far, but i’m sure not all of them. and then, the timing that is left for shareholders to maneuver their holdings for tax purposes, getting into the private equ share, etc etc
market price is reflecting some of this uncertainty

 

[neroden]

How can he have "funding secured" if the BoD has not even formed a committee to research and address the proposal? He later tried to walk it back that "he" had not made a final decision yet on this attempt. That does not undo the actions in the stock price.

I just read that someone who knows corporate finance law and has done lots of M&As said that "secured" doesn't mean much in this context: verbal commitments count as "secured". That's just what it means.

I don't like this article, but there's an important quote in it:

Tesla still hasn't said where its secured financing is coming from — here's what that probably means

There are no legal repercussions for saying "funding secured," said Frank Aquila, an M&A partner at Sullivan & Cromwell.

"It's sort of the same difference between collusion and conspiracy," Aquila said. "Collusion isn't a crime. It means nothing in the legal sense. Conspiracy is a crime. If you say 'I secured this,' it could mean you had a conversation. Committed means something else. If you have committed financing, you have documentation and conditions. Secured just means lined up. It doesn't mean that much."

Musk said "secured", not "committed". I believe his funding is secured, not committed.

 

[ZachShahan]

Yes I have heard this theory repeated through the last few days worth of posts. Can you provide an example of a company going private where the stock price has traded above the buyout price before closing?

It doesn't necessarily matter. The person has to understand that a gigantic number of Tesla shares are currently shorted and shorts have to cover in the event of a buyout — and that is almost certain to put the price through the roof and potentially make the last short sells astronomical. More likely than not, I assume little guys get screwed holding the bag since big guys will exit as soon as the see the squeeze really starting or see the news that indicates it's coming.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I wish I could buy more shares at this price. I do not have the resources. Pretty much all in for the long haul with Tesla because of the stellar products and the integrity of Elon. I am hoping that all the buy and hold longs are buying at these prices.

 

[neroden]

Hey ya'll in the FUD gallery! Do some fact checking.

The 10Q is immaterial for the who knew what when discussion (regardless of applicability). It only covers the quarter that ended June 30th. Filing date does not matter.

View attachment 324233

Also, the deadline to file an 8-K is 4 business days, Tesla has untill next Monday!

SEC.gov | Form 8-K

Yeah, you're supposed to list material events after the close of the quarter in the 10-Q, but nobody at the SEC is going to bother them over signing the 10-Q on Friday and not deciding that the go-private discussion was material until this week.

 

[neroden]

Yes I have heard this theory repeated through the last few days worth of posts. Can you provide an example of a company going private where the stock price has traded above the buyout price before closing?

Off the top of my head, not a go-private example, but I can think of merger examples -- Amazon/Whole Foods. I'm sure there are go-private examples.

 

[madodel]

If I didn't follow this thread and inherently trust Elon when he says/tweets something, I'd be scared & confused. I think that's the only way to read the movement today. People are spooked from all the chatter of SEC investigations and all the claims Elon is lying or might be lying. #Insane

This is the new whompy wheels. They keep repeating the same nonsense over and over to frighten people into selling.

 

[Opus BC fan]

A nice general summary argument from my perspective...
From Virgin to Tesla: why companies go cool on public ownership

 

[Krugerrand]

I think we all have to admit the way this was executed was bad. I can’t imagine the board is all that thrilled with the tweet, but if everything goes through I guess all is forgiven.

I will admit no such thing. This is classic Elon and I love it. Best rollercoaster ride in the world. And anyone sitting on the board knew in advance what they signed up for; they have no excuse. I imagine they are all laughing, rolling their eyes, shaking their heads and drinking heavily.

 

[ZsoZso]

A lot of people wondering who is selling now at these prices. Sounds insane with a 420 offer on the table.
Let me speculate a bit...
A lot of leveraged longs stated that they are exiting their long-term high price call options, as those are losing value (should go to 0 if their date/price is beyond the deal closing time/value). Now, we can assume most of those call options were written and sold by MMs. At the time they sold them, they probably bought some shares to hedge the option sale, they probably do not risk naked options. Now, when the options are bought back, they can sell the shares (at some profit as the SP is now higher). This is done by algobots, solid general logic, making profits so why not ? Except, this time there is a looming 420 offer on the table, so it would make sense to hold them, but there is no human oversight and the bots are not programmed to take into account twitter-rumors

So, there, you do not need short sellers or stupidity to explain selling pressure below 420...

 

[Blip]

Sometimes, I get the feeling (from reading this thread) that all sellers are shorts (and only believe in FUD) and thus "bad guys", and all the buyers "get it" and are the "good guys". I would guess a lot of the sellers actually simply want to take profit, og reduce losses. The reality is that shorting two days ago (at 380) would make a profit of $20/share today (at 360). We might dislike it, but in hidsight, thats also the truth... ;(

 

[-=buzz=-]

It is the stock market. All sell at the same price.

No, the $420 is the squeeze out price paid to anyone not wanting/able to go private as part of the taking TSLA private procedure. This has nothing to do with the stock price at that time.
It just influences the stock price as it's another way to "sell" your shares. And if you're certain of the deal, why sell lower...
They might put out an unlimited 420 buy order to allow voluntary exits to reduce the bureaucracy needed for the squeeze out though.
If they don't do it, then someone else will put one at 400/410/415/418/419/419.5/.. to squeeze out the last bit of profit possible with this stock

If the shareholders approved it as an adequate compensation (and no court intervenes), they could pay the squeeze out with a funny hat per share...

 

[T-Will]

Do we have any idea how soon the privatization vote and stock buyout could occur? Before the end of 2018

 

[Krugerrand]

I just read that someone who knows corporate finance law and has done lots of M&As said that "secured" doesn't mean much in this context: verbal commitments count as "secured". That's just what it means.

I don't like this article, but there's an important quote in it:

Tesla still hasn't said where its secured financing is coming from — here's what that probably means



Musk said "secured", not "committed". I believe his funding is secured, not committed.

They can play word semantics all they want, you’re well aware of how Elon rolls. He has the money needed to take Tesla private. All he needs is the shareholder votes. Which you also know he’ll get because he always gets them. And you know why he always gets them.

 

[saniflash]

I just read that someone who knows corporate finance law and has done lots of M&As said that "secured" doesn't mean much in this context: verbal commitments count as "secured". That's just what it means.

I don't like this article, but there's an important quote in it:

Tesla still hasn't said where its secured financing is coming from — here's what that probably means



Musk said "secured", not "committed". I believe his funding is secured, not committed.

however

Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote.

which leads me to the conclusion that it is secured/committed, else this tweet wouldn't be true

 

[Krugerrand]

Do we have any idea how soon the privatization vote and stock buyout could occur? Before the end of 2018

No. We have no idea. I will wager that it’ll be faster than most think but slower than many want.

 

[JRP3]

Long time TSLA bear Kevin OLeary says shorts should be sweating bullets

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