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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Definitely hold onto it. Elon is a liar :)

Elon might be a showman in a engineer / nerdy-geeky type of way, has an ego, is passionate and talks too much sometimes; but he is not a liar. What he says, he does. His timeline is sometimes too aggressive; but he does that to push his employees. He is very honest. He even posts Tesla's long term business plan called "Master Plan" & "Master Plan, Part Deuce."
 
Last 3 days, 71m out of total 170m shares traded.
Wondering how many of these are landing in the hands of people who won't let go of them until $420 or short squeeze.
Should we be seeing less shares available for trading as this drags on?
well considering the float is closer to 125M, that is something, but I'm sure that trading means that each share traded was traded more than once per day. Easy.

I'm pretty certain that short sellers were covering earlier in the week, and probably shorting later in the week. Probably covering a bit then too, then sitting out. That's easily three turns same share.
 
Did you see the headline on Seeking Alpha from the editor Clark Schultz? It says "Tesla Board expected to push for Musk recusal"
Makes it sound like board wants him to step away. No info that this is perfectly normal in this scenario. Short comments immediately latching on to imply that the board is tired of him and hence asking him to recuse himself.

This site is shameful in how they insinuate negative aura around Tesla, no matter what the news.
 
Did you see the headline on Seeking Alpha from the editor Clark Schultz? It says "Tesla Board expected to push for Musk recusal"
Makes it sound like board wants him to step away. No info that this is perfectly normal in this scenario. Short comments immediately latching on to imply that the board is tired of him and hence asking him to recuse himself.

This site is shameful in how they insinuate negative aura around Tesla, no matter what the news.
Not only that, it's not true. I fully expect and support Elon Musk NOT recusing himself: he KNOWS that this has been his plan all along, and INTENDED to vote ALL of his shares FOR this future. That's part of why he has his portion of control.
 
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Not sure what you're trying to illuminate with all these variations and subtleties. For me it's pretty simple - a serious offer should be disclosed promptly. Elon has prepared a serious proposal, secured funding, communicated to employees, stockholders, and the Board. Proper disclosure is a no brainer.

Where in the 8k requirements does it say that a presented offer needs to be disclosed? I can't find that wording.

I do see where an accepted offer/agreement has to be disclosed. (It isn't material until it has been accepted by the board.)
 
Exactly. I don't know why no one in the media seems to understand that the shorts are buying back something like 1/2 of the shares necessary to close Elon's deal that will burn their position into the ground. Poetic justice.:)

Here is the math according to Gene Munster in the post above:

"Insiders, including Musk, own just over 25% of Tesla shares. Individual investors account for 12% of shares, and large institutional investors like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price make up the remaining 63%. We believe nearly all investors would be supportive of going private, but not all institutional funds would be able to participate in private investments. For that reason, we assume half of Tesla’s institutional ownership (~30% of the company) needs to be bought out. Individual investors, who see greater upside than 13.5%, would likely prefer to maintain ownership if they are able to, depending on fund structure and accredited investor requirements. In short, the more shareholders that decide to roll their shares into the private entity, the less funding Tesla will need for a buyout. By our math, Tesla will need between $25 and $30B."

But Munster does not account for the fact that there are effectively 205 millions shares outstanding because shorts have borrowed 35 million on top of 170 million outstanding.

Once the short sellers are forced to buy those shares back for ~$13billion, the new investors only need to pay something like $12-$13B to get the deal closed. The shorts buy out the rest of the institutions and retail shareholders who don't want to be part of the private Tesla.
Yes, but once the shorts purchase the shares needed to cover, do you think they will roll into TSLAP? Cynically, maybe they do an about face and see it as the best chance to cover their losses ;), but that seems a little too ironic. In which case, the "investors" will need to pay them their $420 per share, adding back the $13B they spent to buy out the institutional shareholders.
 
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I would think the problem with NOT filing an 8k would be that Tesla disclosed that Elon's twitter feed was an acceptable place to provide information about the company. In this case, there is no way to determine that he is speaking in an individual capacity rather than as CEO of TSLA.

If I were advising the board, particularly after they acknowledged the discussions were occurring at the board level, how could they NOT file, even if it were under the more general 8.01 section regarding disclosure of information "deemed important" to shareholders? Even if Elon WAS posting in a personal capacity, given the attention, the Board's announcement, and each Board member's duty to shareholders, I cannot imagine they wouldn't file, even if only to say that "Elon's group has made an offer, but the board is still mulling and a material agreement has not yet been reached to take to the shareholders for a vote."

But hasn't the board already done exactly that yesterday? They said:

Last week, Elon opened a discussion with the board about taking the company private. This included discussion as to how being private could better serve Tesla’s long-term interests, and also addressed the funding for this to occur. The board has met several times over the last week and is taking the appropriate next steps to evaluate this.
 
Exactly. I don't know why no one in the media seems to understand that the shorts are buying back something like 1/2 of the shares necessary to close Elon's deal that will burn their position into the ground. Poetic justice.:)

Here is the math according to Gene Munster in the post above:

"Insiders, including Musk, own just over 25% of Tesla shares. Individual investors account for 12% of shares, and large institutional investors like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price make up the remaining 63%. We believe nearly all investors would be supportive of going private, but not all institutional funds would be able to participate in private investments. For that reason, we assume half of Tesla’s institutional ownership (~30% of the company) needs to be bought out. Individual investors, who see greater upside than 13.5%, would likely prefer to maintain ownership if they are able to, depending on fund structure and accredited investor requirements. In short, the more shareholders that decide to roll their shares into the private entity, the less funding Tesla will need for a buyout. By our math, Tesla will need between $25 and $30B."

But Munster does not account for the fact that there are effectively 205 millions shares outstanding because shorts have borrowed 35 million on top of 170 million outstanding.

Once the short sellers are forced to buy those shares back for ~$13billion, the new investors only need to pay something like $13-$15B to get the deal closed. The shorts buy out the rest of the institutions and retail shareholders who don't want to be part of the private Tesla.
But you are assuming retail investors and those institutions who cannot participate in a private company would be willing to sell their shares and lose out on future growth and earnings. I do not see that as a reality. By voting "no" they get to continue in the game.

The flip side is too many institutions vote to sell their shares fearing Tesla is just not viable at a value of $81 billion including debt. Rather than be holding shares if Tesla implodes, they will take their $420 and bail out now. What then?
 
Yes, but once the shorts purchase the shares needed to cover, do you think they will roll into TSLAP? Cynically, maybe they do an about face and see it as the best chance to cover their losses ;), but that seems a little too ironic. In which case, the "investors" will need to pay them their $420 per share, adding back the $13B they spent to buy out the institutional shareholders.
Short sellers already sold the shares, they are buying back shares after the fact to cover the sale. After the completion of a short sale, they have no net shares.

If a short seller wanted to take the opposite position and go long, they first need to buy to cover their shares sold short and then actually buy shares after that.
 
This untruthful narrative has been spreading since around $40.

I believe it began with the auto dealerships. Maybe their manufacturer, I don't know. But I remwmber clearly at the beginning when I was still actively spreading the gospel of Tesla, mechanics for other auto makers will repeat this same argument to me. Whereas no one else in other sectors did that.

Dufus. Elon never bluffs.
 
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