TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Electroman]

The bottom line is that Tesla does not need this kind of drama or distraction.

Elon is taking it private precisely to end this level of drama and distraction emanating from the short sellers and their cohorts in the media.

 

[RobStark]

He's absolutely brilliant, but overly optimistic about a lot of things. This is why everything kind of happens on Elon time. Delivery time frames, feature updates, full self driving, etc. Its not that it won't happen, it may just happen later, or may not be possible with the current situation. Remember him trying to convince everyone that a Tesla would drive itself cross country last year? or that FSD was possible with current gen hardware? There are probably dozens of examples throughout Tesla history.

I fully believe it will go private at 420 or higher. I'm not convinced that non-accredited investors will be able to stay in the company based on what people who know far more than me about it have said.

And none of those things that did not come to pass on time have had a materially negative impact on Tesla's business or TSLA.

Tesla is making between 7500 and 8000 cars per week, Tesla is worth over $60B( greater than GM at $52B or Ford at $38B), Tesla is turning cash flow positive/profitable as we speak.

Arguing that Elon is not perfect is pointless because no one is perfect.

And Elon is doing a better job for his shareholders than just about any CEO out there.

 

[Unpilot]

Looks like another march to 360...can we break it this time?!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Wow, is the CNBC crowd actually starting to see things Tesla's way?

Dan

 

[dondy]

Ah, the "Atlas Shrugged" defense. I'm now imagining the Saudi's coming out to Fremont only to find the factory in flames with a wooden sign in the parking lot saying "I'm leaving it in the condition I found it. Good Luck. E.M."

lol I imagined that.
Brilliant picture.

Regrettably I am sure any engineer with experience and probably most of the financial specialists will remember "such" cases in real world.
Only in our real world you won't see "wooden signs" or "flames". It will be less impressive but no less destructive.
You know the situations when a manager leaves with a few buddies and directors wake up with the necessity to find >30% of new process leaders ASAP. It could be a conflict with directors, or it could be manager's death from cancer and immediate departure of his team to "try something new", or anything else of a kind. It doesn't matter, the results are always the same.
Suddenly extraordinary costs become "reoccurring" and all old norms fly out of window with such "success" that in the end new team has to reinvent all parts of the production cycle from scratch and transition costs become to be comparable to a building of a new company from scratch. The worst cases are those which start as normal and everything even looks the same during first months. Almost.

Consider all this now with triple price to enter and with double ownership of IP: inventors and the company.
All good investors look for teams and leaders. Some are even open about it.

 

[Electroman]

Phil no-drama-only-straight-facts Lebou is the last man standing

 

[RobStark]

How about “Only reason why this is not certain is that it’s contingent on a shareholder vote”?

There are so many options for deals Elon is certain he can get one done.

If Elon does not bring deal at $420 plus before shareholders you can sue him.

 

[bdy0627]

Then why isn't the price rising? I understand the shorts aren't covering (we're used to that, no big surprise) but why would anyone else stay on the side with a 20+% gain (probably in a few months) _almost_ guaranteed? It's not like tjhey'd have to believe in the company's future, just that Elon isn't the most native guy in business (remember that FT confirmed that SA bought in _before Elon's tweet_).

I think the answer is that for a lot of people, a potential 20% gain is not worth the uncertainty and volatility that comes with this scenario.

 

[mrwuffles]

Mark Spiegel can then sue the Saudi Government/PiF.

Does that mean all the longs can sue the shorts like Spiegel who get on TV and say TSLA value is 0?

I think the answer is that for a lot of people, a potential 20% gain is not worth the uncertainty and volatility that comes with this scenario.

They should be buying calls then...

 

[Electroman]

uncertainty and volatility

With TSLA the only certainty is the uncertainty and volatility. You don't like it, don't come to the party. Elon has said this several times.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm not sure writing a fat check to cover your inept stealing of copyrighted art is a good resolution. It would've been better to wisely negotiate a license up front OR get something from the public domain. What Tesla/Elon did was just about the worst outcome and solely results from not properly using professionals. The same thing played out with his "pedo" comment. He got all huffed and basically sent a pile of cash (or will) to mollify the harmed party. Guy needs a cabal of lawyers (I hear Guiliani is GREAT with these kinds of clients /s).

I have no idea about SEC violations but I do know Tesla seemed to have disclosed Elon would use twitter as a mechanism to distribute information and Elon's twitter account is widely followed and publicly accessible but that's why I'd consult a professional before spouting off something that could cost me dearly. Maybe it will work out and it wasn't a violation, maybe Elon will just throw money at it to solve the issue (like most issues, money probably is a solution), or maybe the SEC will make an example of him.

The bottom line is that Tesla does not need this kind of drama or distraction. Just innovate and push amazing cars out of the factory. Demand is there. The market is ravenous. Just focus on what matters.

From the artist: “I did not get rich off this transaction,” said Edwards with a laugh. “I took it on as an ethical issue.”

So, no fat checks. The PR generated was most probably worth the minor fee they paid. In particular the artist did not hire a lawyer, just asked in a polite letter to be fairly compensated. What “drama” there was was entirely conjured up by the press.

Elon is Elon. While you complain that Elon isn’t perfect enough for you, I like the real world Elon just fine.

 

[oneday]

Short interest on Friday dipped to 26.9% of the float. The lowest since June.

Excert from latest Reuters piece.

Looks like some smart shorts are getting out.

 

[AWDtsla]

I think the answer is that for a lot of people, a potential 20% gain is not worth the uncertainty and volatility that comes with this scenario.

I'm planning on a 20% near term (3-12 months) floor, with a non-zero possibility of 1000% gain in the same period.

 

[SpudLime]

GAH.. missed todays low before noon. Got 50 shares at $358.01. Sall good. Im in for the long haul.

 

[brian45011]

Short interest on Friday dipped to 26.9% of the float. .

Float or shares outstanding?

 

[austinEV]

Yeah, but notice how the article starts with

And then what impact that accident made on her:

I think this is far from good news...

Maybe she crossed the Fraulein/Frau line the instant the crash happened.

 

[oneday]

Float or shares outstanding?

The Float. And the float percentage is currently at 68.81% of shares outstanding.

 

[Unpilot]

Over 10 million shares traded and the SP moves .26 percent.

 

[Johan]

Over 10 million shares traded and the SP moves .26 percent.

If this is the Saudis buying on the open market they're somehow doing a good job keeping the price depressed (you know what's better than buying TSLA @420? Buying TSLA @358)

 

[Open Interest]

I’m failing to see the downside here. In the unlikely event that the privatization falls through, we still have a company now producing around 6,000 cars per week and projecting profits in the second half. We are right where we were after the earnings call, and it’s all good.