TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

Anyone who knows anything about software engineering will know that "promises" on when a software project will be done, are essentially worthless, no matter who makes them.

History is littered with examples:

1. MacOS Copeland. Never delivered by Apple.
2. Windows Vista. 3 years late. Microsoft originally planned for project Longhorn to RTM in late 2003. It didn't happen until late 2006. Even then it was sort of a cluster.
3. Diablo III. Announced with great fanfare by Blizzard Entertainment in June 2008. Released nearly 4 years later, in May 2012.

In the near term, it is immaterial to Tesla's stock price whether Tesla delivers FSD features a few months late. Whether it matters in the long term, I think depends on what the competition from Google and others bring to the table So far, it's not looking great all around.

Duke Nukem Forever...

 

[Mike117]

I hate to throw cold water on your investment thesis, but the scenario you are outlining is not supported by the numbers:

• Tesla's Q2 "cash burn" rate already slowed down significantly, despite only about 2k/week M3 deliveries. Cash dropped from 2.6b to 2.2b.
• In Q3, according to conservative modeling that assumes 4k/week deliveries, cash would increase to 2.9b
• In Q4, under similarly conservative assumptions, cash would increase to 3.4 billion. By the end of Q1 2019, to around 4 billion dollars or more.
• The convertible notes that mature in March 2019 have a face value of $920m.
• Even in the worst possible cash flow scenario, if Tesla pays the convertible notes fully in cash, Tesla is still going to have more than 2-3 billion dollars of cash left and will generate about 0.5-1.0 billion dollars of cash per quarter in 2019. No bankwuptcy and no raise of capital required.

Under what scenario can you see Tesla running out of cash?

Take a Look to this article: Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203584?source=ansh $TSLA

Furthermore, please take a look at the balance sheet - mainly short term liabilities (due within 0-12 months). There are about 7bn USD outstanding. Even if they got 3.4 bn in Cash in Q1 19, they still cant pay the short term debt nor the Investment in China. They will NEED to raise capital in Q1 19 or Q4 18 leading to dilution of around 10% hence Stock price falling to 270

 

[EVMeister]

Suggest you hide the URL if you actually want people to bother clicking the link...

 

[K_Dizzle]

Take a Look to this article: Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203584?source=ansh $TSLA

Furthermore, please take a look at the balance sheet - mainly short term liabilities (due within 0-12 months). There are about 7bn USD outstanding. Even if they got 3.4 bn in Cash in Q1 19, they still cant pay the short term debt nor the Investment in China. They will NEED to raise capital in Q1 19 or Q4 18 leading to dilution of around 10% hence Stock price falling to 270

How these balance sheet analysts always seem to ignore inventory number under assets is beyond me. The inventory will all be sold within 30 days. Furthermore short term liabilities will increase again this quarter as production continues to ramp and they’re provably on 60-90 day payment schedules. Additionally $1.5B of liabilites are from differed revenue and customer deposits.

 

[JRP3]

Don‘t spread idiotic FUD here.

Right, that's your job.

 

[Revhappy2]

I bozght some 250$ puts and Sold 400$ calls. Holding 100 shares currebcur but I guess Elon ****ed up really Bad in the last 3 months. Without further financing in January 19, TSLA will Run out of Cash hence mark bankrupt unfortunately

But your security positions dont reflect your bearishness. You have 100 shares currently valued at $300. You are going to lose atleast $50 per share if your prediction becomes true.

 

[JRP3]

That's a weird comment. Apparently, you want slave labor ?

Apparently you aren't familiar with the UAW.

 

[Unpilot]

Take a Look to this article: Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha $TSLA

Furthermore, please take a look at the balance sheet - mainly short term liabilities (due within 0-12 months). There are about 7bn USD outstanding. Even if they got 3.4 bn in Cash in Q1 19, they still cant pay the short term debt nor the Investment in China. They will NEED to raise capital in Q1 19 or Q4 18 leading to dilution of around 10% hence Stock price falling to 270

Classic....Don't take the bait. Ignore is by far the best option for this new "helpful" poster.

 

[winfield100]

Take a Look to this article: Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha $TSLA

Furthermore, please take a look at the balance sheet - mainly short term liabilities (due within 0-12 months). There are about 7bn USD outstanding. Even if they got 3.4 bn in Cash in Q1 19, they still cant pay the short term debt nor the Investment in China. They will NEED to raise capital in Q1 19 or Q4 18 leading to dilution of around 10% hence Stock price falling to 270

MODS: could you do a vaguely "WHOIS" IP lookup on new members, and older disruptive ones. I suspect most aren't astute enuf to "spoof" their IP's or source. to confirm origin of poster

 

[neroden]

I bozght some 250$ puts and Sold 400$ calls. Holding 100 shares currebcur but I guess Elon ****ed up really Bad in the last 3 months. Without further financing in January 19, TSLA will Run out of Cash hence mark bankrupt unfortunately

So you can't read a balance sheet, eh? So sorry to hear that.

 

[dhrivnak]

Totally agree! I was driving our Model 3 in the middle of nowhere at a provincial park last weekend and as I drove past a small herd of teens on bikes, I heard "whoa a Model 3!" and "that's totally sick!" The number of times younger kids and teens come up and ask about the car and knowing already that it's electric tells me there is enormous brand recognition and interest in EVs that will show up in future sales or as they convince their parents now to look into one for their next family car.

How true I reciently showed my Model 3 at two car shows in rural NE Tennessee and LOTS of 10-14 year olds proudly explained my Tesla to their confused parents. This gives me great hope for the future.

 

[neroden]

Furthermore, please take a look at the balance sheet - mainly short term liabilities (due within 0-12 months).

In case you're really that naive, I'll politely explain to you why those don't have to be paid off.

(1) Much of the accounts payable is balances with suppliers for car parts: it's going to stay constant or grow. Tesla's suppliers ask for payment 60 or 90 days after parts delivery. This isn't changing. The only way Tesla would have to "pay it all off" would be if suppliers started demanding all their money before delivery, which is not happening. Yes, Tesla has to pay for the parts after 60 days, but they also receive new shipments of parts and don't have to pay for them for 60 days, so this loan "rolls over". Tesla will have enough cash to handle it if some suppliers start demanding shorter payment terms, and it's implausible for all of them to.
(2) Since you're looking at liabilities and not just accounts receivable, there are also substantial deferred revenue elements there: an accounting allowance for the idea that Tesla owes customers money if they don't deliver the car which the customer paid for. These are simply erased from the balance sheet, i.e. Tesla never pays a penny, when the car is delivered.

Learn to read a balance sheet before commenting again.

 

[JRP3]

Montana may have reappeared under a new name at SA. In the comment section a commenter named 10hut said the following:

"I'm being as clear as possible without risking my employer being telephoned..."
"if you knew my actual track record on things such as this, you might either be extremely happy or extremely sad depending on your position in Tesla as of Friday Aug. 31st."

Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Lessmog]

MODERATOR -

I’m going to go out on a limb here, but -

I think there is a high probability of there being one or a few dozen Apple Corp / AAPL forums somewhere on the internet.

Words to the wise, folks. As well as to the rest of you. “Weekend” does not mean “smorgasbord”.

Thanks, but I already know it's "Baltic Ferry" that means "smorgasbord".

 

[winfield100]

Montana may have reappeared under a new name at SA. In the comment section a commenter named 10hut said the following:

"I'm being as clear as possible without risking my employer being telephoned..."
"if you knew my actual track record on things such as this, you might either be extremely happy or extremely sad depending on your position in Tesla as of Friday Aug. 31st."

Tesla's Cash Problems Create January Default Risk - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

a member of SA since 2013, with 56 comments
even if "It" is Montana, he has been consigned to the dustbin of history as inconsequential at best, a minor footnote of, failures to thrive,
SA is becoming/has become irrelevant at best, a waste of brain cells and neurons but for a few authors, seeking click and eyes for survival.
why else do they charge $75/month for essentially drivel?

 

[Joe F]

Don‘t spread idiotic FUD here. Do you have any real negative experience to report parking your car there ? And in this case, post the police report please.

Ha! You’re funny! Welcome to my ignore list, Teslie. You’re in not so good company. Poof.

You really don't need to educate the elders. They will either have flexible minds and "see the future" or not. [snip]

It wasn’t my intention to educate the elders, especially since that’s a class I belong to. I fully understand that the younger generation gets it, so there’s hope for the future after all.

In keeping with an attempt to keep this thread on topic, there are some here who seem to question “Why is TSLA down, those were good numbers?” Since I’m preaching to the choir, I’ll keep it short and reiterate there are external forces outside of normal market participants that are responsible for the FUD and animosity towards Tesla and us owners. This affects the biased media and worse, the weak hands. It’s not clear to me that everyone understands how large the attack vector is. I’ll leave it with that.

 

[bdy0627]

I hate to throw cold water on your investment thesis, but the scenario you are outlining is not supported by the numbers:

• Tesla's Q2 "cash burn" rate already slowed down significantly, despite only about 2k/week M3 deliveries. Cash dropped from 2.6b to 2.2b.
• In Q3, according to conservative modeling that assumes 4k/week deliveries, cash would increase to 2.9b
• In Q4, under similarly conservative assumptions, cash would increase to 3.4 billion. By the end of Q1 2019, to around 4 billion dollars or more.
• The convertible notes that mature in March 2019 have a face value of $920m.
• Even in the worst possible cash flow scenario, if Tesla pays the convertible notes fully in cash, Tesla is still going to have more than 2-3 billion dollars of cash left and will generate about 0.5-1.0 billion dollars of cash per quarter in 2019. No bankwuptcy and no raise of capital required.

Under what scenario can you see Tesla running out of cash?

Nice response. It's bizarre to me that even some analysts are still projecting Tesla to REQUIRE a capital raise over the next 6 months. What data are they looking at? It looks like it would take some kind of black swan event for that to be the case, which is not impossible but very unlikely.

 

[gringotuanis]

Don‘t spread idiotic FUD here. Do you have any real negative experience to report parking your car there ? And in this case, post the police report please.

I have driven by some of the other automakers plants in Detroit and there are literally signs on the gate saying if you don't have our brand, you park way over there. I guess they do give you your own parking lot far away...

 

[Intl Professor]

@neroden : To continue off topic weekend and investing in what we like/know: If you do not mooing sharing....what are your top five stock investments by dollar amount.

Mine: AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, ROP, then TSLA.

Tesla, Baidu. 40% and 20% respectively. A variety of others. Nvidia might have been third, except wealth manager sold it at $17!!!!

 

[winfield100]

Ha! You’re funny! Welcome to my ignore list, Teslie. You’re in not so good company. Poof.


It wasn’t my intention to educate the elders, especially since that’s a class I belong to. I fully understand that the younger generation gets it, so there’s hope for the future after all.

In keeping with an attempt to keep this thread on topic, there are some here who seem to question “Why is TSLA down, those were good numbers?” Since I’m preaching to the choir, I’ll keep it short and reiterate there are external forces outside of normal market participants that are responsible for the FUD and animosity towards Tesla and us owners. This affects the biased media and worse, the weak hands. It’s not clear to me that everyone understands how large the attack vector is. I’ll leave it with that.

@Joe F
dude, i have been alive since the 1940's, just not an elder yet tho. (my "avatar pic is 40 years old)

look at the Tech analysis thread and explain the divergence of the Accum/Distrib line and price action from 4/1/2018.
It's like somebodie(s) are artificially holding down the SP even tho people are slowly nibbling/buying/accumulating the stock

especially since 7/2/2018. 60 million shares have traded hands at slightly higher prices than lower, yet the stock price is hanging there and actually down
(look at 6/21 to 7/2, SP declined ~$50, A/D line sharp down)
Usually the A/D line and stock price more or less follow, but they have diverged!!
It's like a spring is being wound tighter and tighter