i don’t usually post here, but I wonder if you guys are so stuck in the trees you don’t see the real world. Most people I know don’t even know tesla exists. 90% of them don’t know about all this fight and wouldn’t care if they did. My daughter manages large top secret military contracts and only knows about this free for all because I occasionally mention it to her. Few, if any,read the Journal or The NY Times. Most the younger kids think Tesla is the new iPhone of cars and pay as much attention to this crap as they do to the same stuff about Apple. In the long run, the only thing that counts is delivering well made cars efficiently. If Tesla does, they win. If not, no amount of fanboys can save them. There is a world outside this forum, and very few people even know this exists.
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Do you live in the middle of Kansas or are all your peers 65+? I have yet to meet or talked to someone who doesn't know what a Tesla is....I live in Central FL, not the greenest places in the world either.
Now these people are full of misinformed information thanks to all the FUD but they all know that Tesla is a luxury highly expensive electric car.
my data starts on 6/29/2010Hey Winfield,
I really like your A/D line, it explains much. But why the negative sign? It comes from the subtraction in the over part of the quote, which is opposite to the lower part. Not a big deal since the Y axis is also negative, but a little bit confusing to simple minds like mine. And your source is like sorcery to me. Still grateful!
CLV = (((close-low)-(high-close)) / (High - low)) * volume
for instance on June 14th, 2015
high , low , close , vol
97.1 , 81.2, 83.24 , 37,103,240
(((83.24 - 81.2) - (97.1 - 83.24)) / (97.1 - 81.2)) * 37,103.240 (very high volume, and closed almost at the low, opened at ~94)
((2.04 - 13.86) / (15.9)) * 37,103,240
(-11.82/15.9) * 37,103,240
-.7433...*37,103,240 = ~ -27.6 million (minus about 27.6 million)
data comes from
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/historical (excel file)
download the max, 10 years which goes back to 6/29/2010
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Nope, I live in Palm Bay. I know people from 10 to 80+. I’ll live in a middle class neighborhood. As I said the kids think of Tesla like they do of an iPhone. That is good for Tesla long term. Most adults don’t read papers, look at news or anything other than what friends and family are doing on Facebook. My car looks different so they sometimes ask who makes it and have trouble believing it doesn’t have an engine. In fairness, I do have a nephew who started a little company called Grubhub and he drives an X. If you are in the V illages, I can see there being more familiarity. A guy in the gym the other day asked me about my car,but he kept calling it a 7 and asking about the 5.
Yet again, who out there has mass production experience in 18650/2170 battery powered electric vehicles?
Ford? BMW? GM?
To me, there is no one out there that has more experience in battery powered electric vehicle production at this scale then Elon and crew.
To scale ICE is different then scaling Tesla. The details matter at mass production and I’m confident ICE executives may not have an easy transition as some think.
These problems Tesla faces are not about securing a 1m bolts or enough aluminum... the problems Tesla are experiencing have more to do with implementing innovations and novel concepts to the electric vehicle production process. These are learning curve challenges of innovation, not of following tried and true ICE manufacturing tactics, techniques, and procedures.
In essence you can’t compare apples and oranges in this situation until we see mass manufacturing of battery electric vehicles by other manufacturers at tesla’s current levels.
Right now, Elon and crew are carving a new path on a specific type of vehicle (as well as manufacturing process) at a level no one on earth does it.
The irony is, all other manufacturers would be or are pursing Tesla executives to take over their electric car manufacturing at scale.
I’ll make a wild prediction that Elon’s Tesla will produce many of the car business executives of the future as we transition to an electrified transport industry. Not the other way around.
Hopefully next week I will turn 82. In November my wife and I will celebrate our 15th anniversary. In January next she will celebrate her 42nd birthday. In 2014 my mother died at 99, but a year or so later I fainted and plowed into the back of our garage. Three days later I had a pacemaker installed and then was diagnosed with Afib too. At about the same time as, surprise, I inherited more money by far than expected from my Mom. Though I was successful in some stocks it was time for a change in management due to ill health and old age. The advisor had done well for my late sister and my Mom so he is part of the family, though located on the other coast. I advised him not to touch certain stocks, unfortunately I did not include Nvidia, not NAVB (old fingers on keyboard). I just assumed it was a big name in the field and paid one percent yield, so it was unusual for a Silicon Valley tech stock. Wrong! to count on others for similar thinking, proving your point. It is useful, however, since I can always remind him of this when, if, we struggle.
Now that it is time to sell something, not TSLA, to raise $70,000 for an M3 we consult more frequently and well. Recently I was worried about BIDU falling by one percent or more each day for a week, He counseled patience based on technical analysis, much to my surprise and of which I am ignorant save as a lurker on these pages. Sure enough BIDU is rising, but for how long????
Thanks for your concern. Your point is well taken but as you suggest age and health are valid concerns. Mom's inheritance is purely the advisor's suggestions and has risen about 11 percent a year over the last three years, except for when I insisted recently on selling a dodgy pharma stock and buying some TSLA with proceeds. (TSLA down since then, but no objections here or from him.)
I'll try to put mention of wealth advisor on hold. But you know what they say of old dogs and windbreakers. (Always stay upwind? Or something like that.)
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It's amusing to see shorts/bears/trolls raising the accounts payable and inventory argument, because it's actually a Tesla positive factor, i.e. it's harmful to their negative thesis about Tesla. It gives the impression that these shorts don't really know what they are talking about.
Firstly, you are committing a very basic accounting mistake in your argument: you are counting liabilities while not counting assets. In particular you are considering accounts payable while you are not counting either accounts receivable nor inventory. This kind of omission is a permanent feature of most variants of the Tesla short thesis I've seen so far, but you are clearly trying to reach new intellectual lows here.
While accounts payable increased in Q2 (which will happen for any manufacturer that ramps up fast and thus has much more goods 'in the pipeline'), its inventory counterpart increased at an even faster rate. A quick look at the data confirms:
| Quarter |
| Dec 31, 2018 |
| Mar 31, 2018 |
| Jun 30, 2018 |
Note how the value of 'Inventory' has leaped ahead of 'Accounts payable' in Q2 already: this is an early sign of the Model 3's cash generation capability.
Inventory is in large part 'finished goods' (Model S3X's on way to the customer), raw materials, work in progress and service parts - i.e. future Model S3X's. Money spent on inventory isn't money disappearing like a short bet gone wrong, it's a real (temporary) asset that transfers into future revenue and cash at a high conversion rate.
If we consider accounts payable as a product pipeline liability, and inventory and accounts receivable as assets, we can tentatively (and somewhat sloppily: see the disclaimers below) compare them with cash levels and estimate "equilibrium" cash levels - what would happen if all Model S3X's in the pipeline were sold and accounted for:
| Quarter |
| Dec 31, 2018 |
| Mar 31, 2018 |
| Jun 30, 2018 |
| Sep 30, 2018 (est.) |
(Note that this is only a coarse estimate, I'm estimating equilibrium flows from balance sheet items: in reality cash equivalents will also fluctuate for other reasons than the product pipeline; inventory value doesn't transform into revenue at a 100% rate; some consumer payments arrive before the car is made and thus increase cash balance; doesn't account for deferred revenue; plus it's all a dynamic snapshot with different time delays of the flows, etc. It's still an interesting and quick way to look at the equilibrium cash state behind the very dynamic Model 3 ramp-up which is by far the quickest moving part of the picture. This estimate probably over-estimates the equilibrium cash position - but I challenge shorts to come up with a Tesla-negative estimate on inventory effects, without misleading/lying that is.)
I.e. while cash dropped by -$429m in Q3, when coarsely corrected for accounts payable, accounts receivable and inventory values, "effective cash" only dropped by about -$180m in Q2, i.e. Tesla was much closer to an estimated equilibrium cash flow break-even point in Q2 already.
In Q3 Tesla is generating serious cash flow: cash equivalents are expected to rise to $2,933m, a growth of +$696m over Q2. I.e. the extra cash generated in Q3 alone is enough to pay off 75% of the $920m 2019 convertible notes - and then there's the additional cash generated in Q4 and much of 2019/Q1...
Conclusion: the Tesla "cash crunch" or bankwuptcy thesis is not supported by facts, it remains an elusive fever-dream by Tesla shorts/bears who are fundamentally disconnected from reality.
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I'm sorry, I mistyped. I meant NVDA at $17. If your advisor sold NAVB at $17 he was a genius.
But your decision to have some help is reasonable. I keep waiting to die but I plan for the long term. Whether I hit your age or not is an unknown. I just don't ever want to again be in a weak financial position. The last time I was broke was in 1985 and that is when I stopped relying on anyone.
The most important aspect of any decision is whether or not you feel good about it. So I take it that you feel good about the advice and really nothing else matters - as long as you aren't complaining about anything financial.
I've been lucky all my life, despite several serious mistakes and near fatal scrapes. I wish everyone the same and admire your attitude and concern for others as well. After a disastrous marriage and twenty-five years of happy single-hood the ultimate wife has made aging the happiest period of all, and quite by accident. Withal she's now embarking on a major in gerontology!
Build into your life many redundancies. My mother-in-law in Thailand offers frequent homage to Buddha on behalf of the stock market purely on her own initiative. I'm sure you benefit from that as well. Not an advice and no charge for the service. Prepaid monthly and as emergencies arise.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
This is called an investor thread for a reason. We deal with numbers, perception from analysts, perception for investors, production numbers etc. Things so detached from reality that most people do not touch. As far as I know, 100% of my friends in real life do not invest. A lot of them are still afraid of 2008.
But I was on the ground spreading the gospel in the beginning. I know what you are talking about. Just the other day my Slovenian girl asked me about my car and what happens if there's a power outage. How do I get electricity if I go outside of the city etc. All valid questions that the normal population are still misinformed about. Probably the most important question is WHY did I buy it? Was it because of greener environment? Am I one of those tree huggers?
Niet, it is just a better car. She does know what a Tesla is and know that it is luxury though. So at least the branding is correct.
Put it this way: no one has HW3 at this point, HW3 is required for FSD. Therefore, an upgrade to FSD requires a HW upgrade. Tesla has a published price for FSD upgrade. It would make zero sense for the price to not include HW3, as every upgrade must include it (there is no FSD without HW3 option).
Excellent informative post. We need to put this as a sticky somewhere. The Shorts analysis stick around in Seeking Alpha. We need the long analysis also to stick somewhere.
Agreed, very nice @Fact Checking !
However, my mother always told me (and it applies to shorts/bears in this case): 'Never let the facts get in the way of telling a good story'
I've been lucky all my life, despite several serious mistakes and near fatal scrapes. I wish everyone the same and admire your attitude and concern for others as well. After a disastrous marriage and twenty-five years of happy single-hood the ultimate wife has made aging the happiest period of all, and quite by accident. Withal she's now embarking on a major in gerontology!
Build into your life many redundancies. My mother-in-law in Thailand offers frequent homage to Buddha on behalf of the stock market purely on her own initiative. I'm sure you benefit from that as well. Not an advice and no charge for the service. Prepaid monthly and as emergencies arise.
Could you request that your mother-in-law explain to Buddha about the necessities for Elon to succeed so that the world can be saved and thus she prays for his spiritual protection against shorts and other demons? And I apologize for taking this thread away from its primary subject, but it is the weekend and this is sort of tangentially related.
Well what do you know... after reading professor’s post, I came to this thread to post just that and then saw yours.
So ++1
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tell her the same that happens to an ICEv: neither can fuel during a power outage because all modern gasoline pumps are powered by electricity.
Exception if BEV owner has power storage/generator or the gasoline station has a generator.
Elon and I are working on this problem. I am down about a $500k on shares bought following the short burn in 3 months and going private tweets. Not sure this reduced inequality by bringing anyone up, but it definitely brought me down, so sorta the same effect
I’m sorry to hear that Bob. I remember when you purchased the 3,000 shares and I then decided to buy a few hundred more shares. I figured if you were going big, I could put some in. Things really haven’t worked out for us the last few weeks but I can’t blame Elon. He didn’t say for sure he was taking it private. (Even though I figured it was a 90% chance because he has talked about it for years.). We shall see how the next 6 months works out. Besides, I’m planning on keeping my shares for many more years.
My one Tesla tweet ever from a few days ago got attention from Elon, his mother Maye Musk, and is now on Tesla's Twitter page on top!
Gene on Twitter
Gene on Twitter
Heck, even in the most anti-Tesla state in the union (Michigan) has many kids who know what Tesla is. The parents are often dumbfounded but it’s too late for many of them anyway. The right generation is aware of the brand. I’d be more worried if only the old farts knew about Tesla since they are the past..
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