TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

I truly hate Elon Musk for smashing down TSLA stock with a hammer full of idiotism. Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible... He doesnt even apologize for his behaviour and investors suffering because of him. Great

Have you sold at 10K loss ? If yes, then it is your fault, not Elon's. Why sell now when we are riding the first profitable quarter, wait for the results to come out and the price will go up!

OTOH, if you have not sold, then you have not lost anything yet! Just sit tight.

 

[Causalien]

You can really see that the short media spinning up today. I guess some of them did take a labor day weekend. Meanwhile, the hard working TSLA delivery specialist worked overtime where I am from. Got a call from them to give test drive to all line waiters. Nice. TSLA is really making an effort.

I have no "cause". I just want people to know the facts as I have seen them for myself and taken photos on the lots. I am one of the people that reports numbers to Bloomberg. Have been doing so since they created the report

This just gave me a smile. Can't remember how many time I've heard of this before. Then every year, one or two disappears and another one or two shows up. Always wondered if it is the same person different user name. Why do you guys always write the same thing.

I much prefer you guys just write once. Price target, date and reason. You can then proceed to rub in long's face when it become true for all I care (I actually prefer this so I know who is accurate or not). If you repeat the same thing ad nauseam every quarter while moving the goal posts from a wall of text, it's really hard to tell if you are accurate.

I don't have problems with you shorts showing negative inventory stories, but god damn, do some better research. For example, if you want to push the narratives where the lot is filling up with unmovable stock. Take the picture from the same angle! Currently, the before picture from shorts shows the cars from the front and a lot filled up, then the after picture shows the car from the side, making it "appear" more full than usual. Geezes, we are not on instagram here, we don't need instagram angles to count cars. It'll be nice if you actually counted the car numbers along with the picture posted as well. If you are talking about how many VINs got stuck on the same lot for weeks. Actually count how many are there and the average numbers of days stuck on the lot. Now that is good journalism and research. Here I'll help you on some methodology. Have a camera setup at a high place across the lot, rent a room or pay some resident across the street to put a camera there. Everyday, take a shot at the same time. Do a quick compare of the 2 pics on which cars moved and voila.

Heard of the big mac index and the latte index? Heard of the skirt length index? All based on real numbers.

 

[30seconds]

The Mercedes EQC is going to be a $80,000, 210 mile half-harted attempt to make sure that they don't destroy ICE sales

 

[defc0n]

More EQC
View attachment 331828
View attachment 331830 View attachment 331829

Looks fugly to me

 

[AWDtsla]

This is nice
View attachment 331826

Oooh PPA grills.. Finally for car audio. FTW

 

[Mike117]

I have not sold yet but I am afraid of further book losses..

 

[LordAstinus]

I would have liked to hear the price.

Not if you wanted to buy one...

 

[AWDtsla]

EQC specs
View attachment 331834

I would have been underwhelmed in 2014.

 

[Causalien]

Looks fugly to me

I really liked the blue LED light... but that image seems photoshopped.

 

[neroden]

The rule of thumb would generally apply though, most ppl are constrained by a budget. We shouldn't dismiss this sort of info out of hand since it is proven statistically. I've heard that even as small as $1k price differences significantly can increase or decrease market share for cars. So if you go from $35k to $30k yu get more and more market share. That said, I think Tesla could charge such premiums since it's the latest and greatest that they generally sell $40k and up for quite awhile.

Well, sure if you're looking at the *overall market*, but Tesla is nowhere near saturating the market.

After all, there are roughly 17 million cars sold in the US each year, the average price is around $30K, and so there are about 8 million cars sold at $30K+ price points. Tesla is only targeting about half a million cars per year for next year, and the other EV makers put together are producing even less, so it's gonna be a while before the overall supply of buyers with that much budget becomes relevant. (I believe that given the choice everyone will choose an EV over a gasmobile.)

In Tesla's current situation, we find that about 2/3 of the people who make reservations or orders want the longer-range version. I think that statement is on solid ground.

 

[Phlebas3]

Will it have a supercharger network and will I have to haggle with a dealer to get a fair price?

No need, the dealer will shove an ICE car down your throat and not mention the BEV. More maintenance required so bigger customer lifetime value.

 

[neroden]

what is this ridiculous price action telling us today? am i supposed to believe that the street really thinks the company is not in a good position?

of 31 analyst rec’s;
11 are positive
9 are neutral
11 are sell

seems like it is being manipulated down before the good news starts flowing - which is highly frustrating

Frustrating? I'm glad I wasn't all-in on TSLA before this.

 

[Boomer19]

I truly hate Elon Musk for smashing down TSLA stock with a hammer full of idiotism. Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible... He doesnt even apologize for his behaviour and investors suffering because of him. Great

are you done?
did you read and absorb anything anyone has told you? do you plan to learn from mistake?

always leave some $ on side for future plays. the mkt is fluid.

if it’s any consolation, my position valuation took a vicious beating... i got burned on some of my plays. leaving room for future moves is the key. dwelling on it doesn’t keep your mind clear for the next move. i did my share of complaining as well, so i’m not blaming you for that. but you have to use it and learn from it.

there’s different ways.
rally some $ and lower your avg price...
or just don’t do initiate a position in total in one swoop ever again, or dump it and go to something more palatable for your taste. whatever you have to do to move on.

 

[Boomer19]

Frustrating? I'm glad I wasn't all-in on TSLA before this.

well, yes, i’m never all in either. i continually add
which is the point i’m trying to make to mike117

 

[landis]

We are down 11.
At 290
Time to buy ?

Hmm, goes looking for alert on open order, yup already did.

If you ask here, it is always time to buy

No, not time for more unless it goes lower. ;-)

Now I am sitting on a 10K loss and I just feel horrible

Pfft, Go look at charts for more history.
I am down more than that and feel just fine.

I bought more than I should have in June 2017 so bought more lower in July and August to make up for it.
I've been learning more patience thanks to finding the investor forum in 2016 and have averaged down to around 320 so far.
Have enough shares to trade a few at this point. Too hard to sit on dry powder. FOMO is strong with this one.

 

[LordAstinus]

Frustrating? I'm glad I wasn't all-in on TSLA before this.

There was a time, when Tipranks Analyst Price Targets consensus was below share price. No longer:

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla/price-target

$322.05 for all analysts and $333.60 for best analysts...

Target price went up after Q2 earnings.

 

[tivoboy]

As we move down expectedly to my 290$ target , I'm going to probably buy back the Sept $310 calls (sold at 31$) for target 5.5$ (maybe lower), and re-sell an Oct 300$ for 20$. After getting to $290 (or lower) and if we can bounce back up close to $300 by mid next week (probably won't tick over) I may re-sell Sept 300$ again (price would probably be 15-18) instead of the Oct strike.

My new short term tgt is to re-test the 282-285$ lvls.

* lng 300

Just a new note. I do NOT expect the 282-285 to hold in the end. I know you don't want to hear that.

bought back the sept 310 calls (sold $31, exit 4.9$. If we get up over 290$, I'll be an out right sell for the near term on 2/3 of the open long position.

 

[neroden]

My pacing of purchases means I'm not buying more until Thursday. But this is *absolutely ridiculous*. The company's future has never looked brighter.

 

[Mike117]

There it goes - flush your toilet and I flush my hard earned dollars thanks Musk I hope you enjoy your private jet

 

[Causalien]

Just a new note. I do NOT expect the 282-285 to hold in the end. I know you don't want to hear that.

bought back the sept 310 calls (sold $31, exit 4.9$. If we get up over 290$, I'll be an out right sell for the near term on 2/3 of the open long position.

Thanks. Do you expect this to happen before Q3 release? Or after? A date would help.