He's just making up random stuff. There's no logic to it. Obviously inventory/transit increases with increasing production. There's no way around that. A little optimization here or there, but it's going to keep growing.
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He's just making up random stuff. There's no logic to it. Obviously inventory/transit increases with increasing production. There's no way around that. A little optimization here or there, but it's going to keep growing.
jelloslug
Active Member
In fact, there should be more cars in transit as the production ramps up.
If delivery time is 3 weeks from factory to driveway, then the 11k in transit plus 3k from the first short week of production in July would be delivered (14k). The in-transit would then be the remainder of July's production (~13k (3*4.3)), which gets delivered in August along with the first week of August's production (~5k) for 18k deliveries. Now you have 3x4.5k = 13.5k for August plus the first week of September (5.5k) to deliver in Sept (~19k) for a total of 51k for Q3 plus ~17k in transit (3*5.5).
There have been a number of bullish articles trying to formulate how Tesla can reach a profit in Q3. In almost all cases they were using 60,000 Model 3 deliveries in Q3. I think we can all agree that is unlikely to happen. But I still believe 56-57,000 might do it depending on the ASP.
And Elon Musk's Thailand-related comments are unrelated to Tesla in any way. I rest my case.
They are not going to be profitable in Q3 from the numbers I am currently seeing.
You are close. The problem is 51,000 is not enough for a profit. Tesla has to deliver one extra week at least in September. I think it can be done by focusing deliveries close to CA or getting buyers to come there.
Luvb2b's model only requires 50,000 Model 3 deliveries in Q3, and shows a profit for Q3. I've seen a couple of other models which have similar results. I tend to believe them.
( q2-q4 2018 financial projections )
He assumes a pretty high ASP of $60K but based on what we've heard I believe that. The average purchase is an LR AWD with a non-black color and Enhanced Autopilot, which is over $60K; there seems to be more demand for the expensive Performance versions and the multi-coat paint than I might have expected, and less for the RWD, so it's probably going to be ballpark-right.
60K Model 3 delivered is really going to be needed in Q4 so as to show a *larger* profit, but that's another matter.
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Sorry Mike. It is way too soon to say that. I believe it can still be done.
You know I hope for the best as I am also invested, but I am also realistic..
How can you be so confident on how many they must deliver to be profitable while we guess by large percentages what the ASP will be and see random articles that they have reduced the labour by 30% per vehicle... At the end of the day neither of us know if 51k delivered (which I agree is a good guess at this point) will be enough for a profit. Never mind adding some ZEV credits and such.
dc_h
Active Member
Supply chain lag and ability to get sold cars to customers is valid. Parking lot vigilantes make people a bit reactive. Do they have control of logistics now and are they getting cars to customers faster? From a cash flow perspective it’s important to deliver/sell the car in 30-45 days and get some float from vendors. That helps as sales grow fast to avoid needing credit for inventory.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Because that’s the only thing he’s being sued/investigated for right? The SEC are not looking into his go private tweets?
There is a lot more data available than you realize. You just have to source it, dig it out, and plug it in.
OK, regarding that, worst case is that they fine *him personally*. I don't see a scenario under which they fine the company.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
I hope you are correct. But he is the CEO. I know he says he was acting as an outside party trying to take Tesla private but I’m not sure that will fly. Time will tell.
The board was pretty clearly not on the same page as Musk, and legally the board represents the company.
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