haha aaalright bud, fair enough. Saved this post and I hope I can quote it back to you after Q3 results...but honestly, either way I'll most likely forget.
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haha aaalright bud, fair enough. Saved this post and I hope I can quote it back to you after Q3 results...but honestly, either way I'll most likely forget.
Oh, come on! There's an entire thread devoted to it, that has been mentioned multiple times. You're lucky that I'm taking a timeout from moderation at the moment...
Ulmo
Active Member
And all wheel drive, which Elon said had brisk demand in the conference call.
I wish I could, but my work is owned by our fund. I can point you to one area I think is off in the link you provided. Cost of revenues for M3. The amount of rework and canceled deliveries over quality issues are going to be more costly than projected. That is why we see more deliveries being needed. I also think he may be low in his projected ZEV revenue.
I have always thought a profit in Q4 (ahead of the reduction in the FITC) was a more sure thing. I figured Tesla would get its delivery mess solved by then. But will it be too little, too late?
GGR... you live on this site. The rest of us do not. I actually work for a living and if you bother to notice this is about the only thread I have time to post to.
I am sure I am not the only one who appreciated the link.
What do you think? could delivery problems prevent Q3 profitability?
Tesla’s growing pains are starting to be felt by Model 3 buyers as delivery delays pile up
Tesla’s growing pains are starting to be felt by Model 3 buyers as delivery delays pile up
Mike Smith
Active Member
Just watched the Fox Business 'breaking SEC report'. It was absolutely nothing.
jelloslug
Active Member
Esme Es Mejor
Member
InsideEVs is showing 32,050 US deliveries (14250/17800) so far. Even if Sept deliveries don’t increase at all, 17800 in Sept would add up to 49,850 for the quarter. I don’t know how many deliveries are going to Canada, but I trust it’s more than 150. So 50k+ deliveries is in the bag, in my opinion.
GoodCarsBadCars is showing 34,700 US deliveries (14250/20450) so far, plus 500 in Canada in July. If that’s correct, they’ve delivered 35,200 plus whatever was delivered in Canada in August.
I don’t know why the discrepancy (other than that estimates will vary), so weight the numbers however you see fit. But either way, 50k+ looks very likely. GCBC’s numbers suggest 55k+ may be in play, but I wouldn’t put too much faith in that, at least not yet.
Of course they could. People have been trying to call attention to this for months. No one wanted to listen. Musk has had everyone focused on production until now.
Reminds me of some of my fellow Floridians who wait until the day before a hurricane is due to hit to go buy supplies. Never works out well.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Pedo Dip-- When Musk being Musk leads to 3% or more fall in TSLA.
I agree with your numbers, I was betting a low range to make a point about still being profitable at those numbers. Having been often too optimistic I was perhaps erring overly on the side of caution. But hey, maybe I'm still being too optimistic on production levels for profitability.
I'm sure he will, but that doesn't mean Friday isn't full of soundbited and out-of-context headlines, and corresponding dip.
Troy is projecting production of 52,631 and deliveries of 56,631. If we subtract the 11,166 that were in transit at the end of June that gives us 45,465 units of Q3 production that have to get delivered by 9/30. That means only 7,166 can be in transit on 9/30. That is about 10 days of production. Tesla is currently running 21 days. They have to cut that in half by month end.
Given the 100k annual production constrain on S/X, I don't know how likely that is, but if it's less on other quarters, then possible.
Lots of European figures here: Tesla Europe Registration Stats
I see a lot of focus on Model 3 deliveries, but not on Model S and X. At an average price of $55,000+ and guided margin of 15% for Q3 each Model 3 will bring in a profit of $8.000. A Model S or X, with an average price of $95,000 (?) and a margin of 25+% will bring in $24.000. That means one Model S or X equals three times a Model 3. Production of Model S and X seems to be heading to 27,000 for Q3. If deliveries match that it would be a record quarter, if I remember correctly. 3,500 extra Model S and X would already equal more than 10,000 Model 3.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
HEADLINE: Shortsville Times
MASSIVE LOSS of 14 cents per share predicted by renowned AI.
MASSIVE LOSS of 14 cents per share predicted by renowned AI.
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