TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gringotuanis]

This is such a good post

Where are you at for forecasts today? Haven't seen you much on here lately trendtrader. Did you give up after Friday.

 

[winfield100]

LOL... I could type "the sky is blue" and get a disagree. Just watch...

EDIT: I rest my case. lol

why do people keep saying "Lucifer our Lord" LOL.
It boggles my mind how many Satanists are Tesla shorts

 

[Thekiwi]

Well I must say as a long investor I have been disappointed over the last few months as in my mind the numbers are not adding up. Tesla claimed 5000 a week production in June, but when we looked at July sales we have some 14,200 cars. WELL short of 5000/week especially since we thought there was an overhand as they were holding back June deliveries. So I was hoping for north of 20,000 in August, again we thought there was an overhang and Insideevs is showing only 17,800 deliveries, again well below 5000/month. So from my view I continue to see overpromising and under delivering. Yes there is solid improvement but it appears Tesla is still well short of the June goal of 5,000/week and we are in September. Then add in the crazy tweets and less than stellar Joe Rogan interview it is just pure frustration from my view and I can understand the low stock price.

I hope Tesla focuses on meeting their production goals month in and month out.

That 5000 in June was a test of burst capacity, not a regular weekly run rate.

Tesla guided for 50-55k model 3 units produced in Q3 - an average of 3.85k-4.23k per week, which under any normal product ramp would mean a slowly increasing rate throughout the quarter (meaning starting below the projected quarterly weekly average, and ending above it). Also any downtime for holidays or retooling (to increase rate) can have an outsized effect on any one month period.

Using your 14,200 cars figure for July (does that exclude Canada deliveries?) - which definitely included Holiday downtime, as well as highly likely retooling, gives an average weekly rate of approximately 3.28k.

Your August number of 17,600 gives an average weekly rate of approximately 4.06k. (And we know that included some downtime in the paint shop to solve possible sabotage issue)

Given those numbers, and Elon’s company update on Friday indicating a sequential doubling of deliveries in the quarter - it looks like September model 3 deliveries are shaping up to be somewhere above 20,000 - which is achevialbe at a run rate still quite a bit below 5000 PW.

I also hope September weekly production average exceeds 5k and the sustained run rate climbs closer to 6k per week by end of month - but it’s good to know it doesn’t need to be that high for Tesla to hit or exceed its guidance.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Where are you at for forecasts today? Haven't seen you much on here lately trendtrader. Did you give up after Friday.

I am sitting on $300 J 18 calls with deep losses and excited about the fact that we had a sharp 35% drop in SP over 4 weeks instead of a protracted gradual downtrend
all this means to me is that we are so much closer to the bottom and judging by historical drops of similar magnitude the probability of a sharp V shaped recovery is very real
i can not stand second hand smoke and i tell all my patients the dangers of using marijuana and alcohol so i am not impressed by Elon's lack of judgement in this regard although i watched the entire interview and i believe media blew it way out of proportion and Elon clearly is not a fan of marijuana. however, I am disappointed by his inability to do the right thing which was to tell the interviewer that he does not smoke weed and not to be sitting and drinking alcohol and inhaling second hand smoke. what kind of example is he setting for younger generations.
having said that only an idiot will sell $TSLA for this reason alone.
i am super excited to be able to trade this extremely volatile stock for the next several years and totally welcome the volatility

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Well we Martians where big supporters of spreading the red weed in the first invasion attempt in 1895.
But alcohol is a poison to us just like our distant relatives who are remembered in your Tripod stories.

User name and avatar checks out.

 

[TradingInvest]

Well I must say as a long investor I have been disappointed over the last few months as in my mind the numbers are not adding up. Tesla claimed 5000 a week production in June, but when we looked at July sales we have some 14,200 cars. WELL short of 5000/week especially since we thought there was an overhand as they were holding back June deliveries. So I was hoping for north of 20,000 in August, again we thought there was an overhang and Insideevs is showing only 17,800 deliveries, again well below 5000/month. So from my view I continue to see overpromising and under delivering. Yes there is solid improvement but it appears Tesla is still well short of the June goal of 5,000/week and we are in September. Then add in the crazy tweets and less than stellar Joe Rogan interview it is just pure frustration from my view and I can understand the low stock price.

I hope Tesla focuses on meeting their production goals month in and month out.

I understand your frustration. I used to feel the same way.

The big picture is that Tesla now can reliably produce 50,000 Model 3 in a quarter. From this point, it is likely to get better: more car per quarter, less labor cost per car, and improved quality. We have seen this with Model S and Model X cycles. Model 3 is an amazing product. This is by far the most important part of the big picture.

In a few years, I have no doubt Tesla will reach 1 million cars per year (Model 3, Model Y, S, X, Semi, pickup truck...) Tesla is still on track with the Master Plan Part Deux.

 

[woof]

LOL... I could type "the sky is blue" and get a disagree. Just watch...

Well...on Mars it's red, Neptune green, Mercury black. so it all depends on your home planet I guess.

But alcohol is a poison to us just like our distant relatives who are remembered in your Tripod stories.

For those of you who are unaware of our distant cousins (Excellent way to introduce your children to SciFi).

I LOVED those books as a pup...even read them aloud to my pups. Never knew they made a movie (TV series?) out of them.

 

[RobStark]

Believe me Prof, I agree with you 100%. It's just that you could read your last paragraph as the exact opposite, and I'm happy you clarified it. We're on the same page. I mean I'm half Norwegian and half Australian and I think it's a good mix... ;-)

So you are half Northern European and half Northern European?

 

[Heimdallr]

Well I must say as a long investor I have been disappointed over the last few months as in my mind the numbers are not adding up. Tesla claimed 5000 a week production in June, but when we looked at July sales we have some 14,200 cars. WELL short of 5000/week especially since we thought there was an overhand as they were holding back June deliveries. So I was hoping for north of 20,000 in August, again we thought there was an overhang and Insideevs is showing only 17,800 deliveries, again well below 5000/month. So from my view I continue to see overpromising and under delivering. Yes there is solid improvement but it appears Tesla is still well short of the June goal of 5,000/week and we are in September. Then add in the crazy tweets and less than stellar Joe Rogan interview it is just pure frustration from my view and I can understand the low stock price.

I hope Tesla focuses on meeting their production goals month in and month out.

Tesla guided Model 3 production of 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles, or about 3,800 to 4,300 per week. Can't blame them for not producing 5,000 per week if that wasn't even their target. Most people understand the difference between burst production at the end of a quarter and sustainable production. Think of it this way: Every time they hit some of their burst production targets, whether it's 5,000 / 6,000 or 10,000 per week, think of it as a number that will be normal a few months later but maybe not the week immediately after they hit it for the first time.

 

[Revhappy2]

I'm reading Reddit on people's sentiments on Tesla, and it is really bearish. They keep repeating points like Tesla's never made a profit or cash burn or competitors will kill Tesla. And it made me think.

The story of Tesla reminds me of a story between the high school grad vs the med school student.

If you look at the net income of both from the start of high school graduation for 10-15 years, the high school grad is going to be making consistent income year over year. The med school student will have continual losses that grows bigger and bigger as the student goes into their later years of study as tuition gets more expensive by the year.

Does anyone go at the med school student yelling "WHY HAVEN'T YOU MADE ANY PROFIT FOR OVER 10 YEARS??? High school Joe is making money every year. How can you possibly catch up?"

Because anyone with half a brain knows that the moment the med school student graduates, he'll make more money in one year than the high school grad makes in 5-10 years. His knowledge over the past 12 years or so of training gives him a near insurmountable advantage in money making abilities over the high school grad that it is nearly impossible to catch up. Oh and, banks will have absolutely no problem lending money to the consistently money losing med school student for his studies, for obvious reasons of future earning potential.

Why don't people understand that in order to achieve something amazing, you have to work for years at a loss before realizing the gains?

I dont think TSLA's is as sure shot as that med student analogy. Because, I know otherwise very sensible people in the finance industry who give great advice about long term etf only investing etc but when it comes to TSLA, here is what he has to say:

"Its financing situation is pretty consistently precarious; they're effectively dependent on the good graces of the capital markets to keep the lights on, and that can change at a moment's notice"

I have a bet also with such a person for $100. He says TSLA will not be profitable for 2 consecutive qtrs in next 2 years. I have accepted his bet.

 

[avoigt]

The media coverage about the Joe Rogan interview does again show that they are disconnected to the consumer, his thoughts and emotions. People watched it do come up to very different conclusions:

"I'm starting to get into the whole electric car thing.
Up until yesterdays podcast with Elon Musk and Joe Rogan, I was against electric vehicles. But yesterday was the first time i actually listened to Elon Musk speak for such a long period of time, and I don't usually listen all the way through on Joe's podcasts I just skip in between. But yesterday was the most interesting conversation I have heard in such a long time. Since then, I have been researching Tesla, and it would be the only EV I would buy until BMW makes a 5 series (hence my username Bavarian)."

I'm starting to get into the whole electric car thing. : teslamotors

The Pod scene will one day be recognized as a very cool CEO breaking the old fashioned outdated rules.

But what Elon really did here was to get connected with a whole new set of potential customers and as we can see above .... it worked.

 

[avoigt]

I dont think TSLA's is as sure shot as that med student analogy. Because, I know otherwise very sensible people in the finance industry who give great advice about long term etf only investing etc but when it comes to TSLA, here is what he has to say:

"Its financing situation is pretty consistently precarious; they're effectively dependent on the good graces of the capital markets to keep the lights on, and that can change at a moment's notice"

I have a bet also with such a person for $100. He says TSLA will not be profitable for 2 consecutive qtrs in next 2 years. I have accepted his bet.

Easy money! Does he still take bets?

 

[engle]

This sounds good for Q3! One of the TSLA employees told an attendee at this event they expected to sellout 400 units at that one location! All the people who couldn't drive home in a new Model 3 were giving delivery appts. before the end of Q3.

 

[Matias]

No, he's pointing out that until battery prices drop, the price differential for a SUV due to its higher energy consumption (and thus larger battery needs) push it into a price bracket which fewer people can afford. So it makes more sense to meet the needs of sedan customers first (who are still numerous, and- for the time being - far more than Tesla can serve), and move from there to SUVs to expand the customer base. With the elapsed time allowing for a battery price decline and other refinements.

What do you guys think Model Y with Tesla’s current technology would cost? And an other question; has Tesla said anything about Model Y’s price?

 

[Tslynk67]

I just got an email from Tesla that my M3 (performance dual motor) is finishing production and almost ready for delivery. Only reason I am posting this is that I am in Canada (near Vancouver) - it is promising they are doing some Canadian deliveries again.

All that effort just to stop Fred publishing these FUDdy articles!

 

[Matias]

Let's be careful with information. The attached listing is cherry picked, NOT all vehicle classes, but only cars. Trucks (and many SUVs are classified as trucks, I know my Honda Pilot is) are not included in the list. F-series pickup is still the number one selling vehicle in the the USA. All this means is Tesla still has a long way to go, but I have no doubt it will happen. I'd like to see a list including all vehicle classes.

Edit: 81,839 F-series trucks sold in August '18, an increase over '17 and almost 4X that of M3. Ford F-series US car sales figures. Don't have their sales $ however know F-series is Ford's bread and butter. IMHO Tesla pickup truck will dominate their market, just like they now dominate luxury auto sales. It is just a matter of time.

It is obvious, that I don’t know how average U.S. pickup buyers think, but I have a feeling, that they would be in the conservative end of the spectrum. So are they going to buy an electric car?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What do you guys think Model Y with Tesla’s current technology would cost? And an other question; has Tesla said anything about Model Y’s price?

Honestly, they could probably just do what they do for the Model S/X. Same size battery, slightly lower range. ~275 miles(matching the range loss % going from S100D to X100D) on a charge is more than adequate. Taking the S/X as analogous again, you’re looking at a likely small price increase for the Y over the 3. Maybe $52k for LR RWD.

 

[Tslynk67]

Google Translate choked on that.

Can you please offer some help, D. ?

Elon Musk smokes marijuana on web stream

 

[Tslynk67]

Less than 36 hours later, 5.2M views, which is #4 all time of Rogan podcasts.

But now at 174k likes, which is a smash over all other Rogan podcast episodes. It’s not even close, this could easily go over 200k soon too.

Joe Rogan podcast is one of the most popular podcasts in internet history.

Again, Elon is reaching the right audience at the right time and they are positively responding with record breaking numbers.

Which appears to be the complete opposite in the traditonal established media sentiment and reporting.

Bifurcation means things are drastically changing and a decision point in mass is coming. Trust is shifting and you’re either on that train or this hyperloop when it hits critical mass.

6.6m views, 206k likes...

 

[Tslynk67]

I see your ad blocker and call all in with a not visiting the site for the next 365 days AND telling all my friends/family to follow suit.

Yeah, think I'm unpinning it from my browser too. I used to comment on most of the interesting articles as well, but the place is awash with trolls anyway.

CleanTechnica has much better article and good in-depth analysis.