TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[cardood]

For the month of October, self reported configurations have totaled 18 in the Teslike spreadsheet. 2 out of those 18 are prior reservation holders, or 11% of the data set. Based on this, it seems to me like the backlog for North America LR RWD, AWD, and Performance prior reservation holders has been mostly depleted.

For reference:

September: 101 of which 36% were prior
August: 358 @ 42%
July: 477 @ 58%
June: 1684 @ 81%
May: 154 @100%

Anyone have any other explanations for this apparent trend?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

For the month of October, self reported configurations have totaled 18 in the Teslike spreadsheet. 2 out of those 18 are prior reservation holders, or 11% of the data set. Based on this, it seems to me like the backlog for North America LR RWD, AWD, and Performance prior reservation holders has been mostly depleted.

For reference:

September: 101 of which 36% were prior
August: 358 @ 42%
July: 477 @ 58%
June: 1684 @ 81%
May: 154 @100%

Anyone have any other explanations for this apparent trend?

Sampling error? 18 isn’t a whole lot to build a trend on...

 

[JRP3]

What makes you think the Y won't be sexy? I think it will be sexier than the m3 personally

SUV's aren't usually considered sexy, though I expect it to look good I doubt it will be better than the 3. The X isn't sexier than the S, IMO.

and easier to make via the lessons learned on the m3. Didn't Elon say they're going to be able to reduce the amount or wiring by like a factor of 10 or something similar at the 2nd qtr. Q&A session?

Elon says lots of things...

 

[brian45011]

Depends on how the leasing company structures it - AFAIK a lot of leasing companies apply it as cap cost reduction rather than to the residual.

(This has resulted in many people finding it literally cheaper to return an EV to the dealer and then buy it back as a separate used transaction than to buy out the lease, although Tesla's strong actual resale value will likely make it not as bad.)

Resales of vehicles returned on Tesla direct or 3rd party residual value guaranteed leases are accounted for in Services & Other which might contribute to that category's negative gross margin (-43%!)

 

[CaliBear1]

Can we have the option to put “love” AND “informative?”

Appears to be this area:

As I speculated about previously, this is in mainland China, not the Shanghai Free Trade Zone.

I.e. the Shanghai Gigafactory will be able to sell Teslas in China like a domestic carmaker: no tariffs and full price incentives for EVs received (about $9000 per car purchase IIRC, and it's not a tax incentive, I.e. every customer receives this sum).

And Tesla got special permission for the Gigafactory to be 100% foreign (Tesla) owned.

Recently Tesla also purchased 20% of future lithium carbonate output from the largest Chinese lithium mining company - lithium shipments starting this year already.

Tesla is going to be in a very, very good position in the Chinese auto market...

 

[wipster]

SUV's aren't usually considered sexy, though I expect it to look good I doubt it will be better than the 3. The X isn't sexier than the S, IMO.


Elon says lots of things...

Oh, I agree about the X... was kinda surprised by it's somewhat homely looks actually. But I think the Y will be beautiful. We'll know in a few months.

And I concur, Elon says a lot of things, but this comment stood out and I don't recall anyone disagreeing. We shall see, but I can guarantee the lessons learned will speed up the process on the Y. It will be intense!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

As TT007's unofficial fill-in, I gotta posit that the longer the judge takes to make a statement on the joint letter, the better I feel about it. Tesla didn't say almost anything, in pimpish fashion. I expect the judge to dismiss the case or otherwise rule strongly in Elon and Tesla's favor.

TSLA todamoon, probably tomorrow, this is an advice

You forgot to #dearMoon

 

[X Fan]

Oh, I agree about the X... was kinda surprised by it's somewhat homely looks actually. But I think the Y will be beautiful. We'll know in a few months.

And I concur, Elon says a lot of things, but this comment stood out and I don't recall anyone disagreeing. We shall see, but I can guarantee the lessons learned will speed up the process on the Y. It will be intense!

Hey, hey....my two X's are beautiful .......I don't doubt the Y will be as well....

 

[wipster]

Hey, hey....my two X's are beautiful .......I don't doubt the Y will be as well....

No harm intended... I've also found that Dos Equis look even better as the night passes...

 

[Boomer19]

View attachment 343245

Mark Matousek is also looking for owner stories. I hope I helped legitimize Zach’s Pravduh tracker just a bit here

F yeah!
all we need is another million of those to shut these paid clowns up.

my car is the most fun, and best thing i’ve ever purchased. period. but they don’t wanna hear it.

 

[MP3Mike]

CNBC reporting that Tesla is now producing only 3700 Model 3s per week because they only produced 7400 in the 2 weeks of this quarter so far, totally ignoring that today is only the 12th and the number is from earlier today, so it's actually only 11 days.

Tesla produced 7,400 Model 3 sedans in the first two weeks of the quarter, report says

"Math class is tough."

 

[Unpilot]

F yeah!
all we need is another million of those to shut these paid clowns up.

my car is the most fun, and best thing i’ve ever purchased. period. but they don’t wanna hear it.

Here let's tweet this at him


Scott Wainner on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

This factory is ~5 times bigger by square footage than the Gigafactory? Am I getting this right?

No, 860K m^2 is a square area approximately 1,000 yards on a side.

 

[brian45011]

Hey, Tesla should not do business with Texas.

SpaceX disagrees

SpaceX's South Texas launch pad may get Mars-sized boost

 

[traxila]

Electrification of the global fleet is a mission that cannot afford politics. It is a true win for all people of the earth, present and future.

It is easy for the people of the world to tell US citizens that they who live in glass houses should not throw stones. I do not like the human rights track record of any country to be perfectly honest. Are some worse than others? Yes, but, of course, this would be a matter of debate unfortunately.

The electrification of the global fleet can wait for no one person. As long as our interests in electric cars are aligned, we must proceed.

Except for allowing the wrong people to take control of TSLA. This must never happen. This is up to Elon. We must trust him.

 

[Unpilot]

The more I read about the danger of our present course the more angry I get.
To assume we can continue as we are is folly of the most dangerous and obscene kind.

Education is the only answer and to that end I am a relentless advocate for Tesla.
The other option is to leave to my son and daughter and their children a horrible and painful life.

Why the IPCC’s report on global warming matters

We cannot fail.

 

[azaz]

any expected timeline on when this judge is gonna make her ruling? seems ridiculous that she can step in and void a settlement between two parties.

 

[SpaceCash]

any expected timeline on when this judge is gonna make her ruling? seems ridiculous that she can step in and void a settlement between two parties.

Nah it may be very helpful. She's just doing her job in the name of JUSTICE.

Seriously, fairly optimistic on this and so is our boy Croncron Musket

 

[KarenRei]

Oh, I agree about the X... was kinda surprised by it's somewhat homely looks actually. But I think the Y will be beautiful. We'll know in a few months.

It looks like aerodynamics. Tesla's vehicle shapes are dictated first and foremost by aerodynamics. Which is why Model X - despite being much larger and with a less efficient motor than the I-Pace - still manages to use less energy than it.

Model Y's shape will also be dictated by aerodynamics. Just like 3 is shaped basically like S, Y will be shaped basically like X.

 

[dqd88]

Per link below, it seems Tesla Energy removed a bunch of job postings. Completely hypothesizing here but I wonder if they ramped up job postings for energy in anticipation of big Saudi projects, but then with the recent drama put the brakes on the deal, hence removed job postings... the timing seems peculiar... but just pure speculation (no actual evidence of big Saudi deal).

From a bear on twitter (click at your own risk)

"Today $tsla removed 68% of open positions from its job board. From 2,461 to 796 available jobs. It appears that only 23 open Energy Services Jobs remain. All mention of it as business unit have been removed and headers changed. $tsla is officially in shrink mode.

7:23 AM - 12 Oct 2018 "

Nikola’s Stache on Twitter